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Delay in model X launch?

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#381
We all should give ED his due... It appears he was more right than incorrect. Supplier issues apparently prevail:
Model X Expectations Lowered for 2015 - TESLARATI.com

Also, here are the quotes from the 2Q call on cash flows. I listened to the entire call and recall the same discussion. It appears we were mislead on a new Stock Issue. It would have been more appropriate to dodge the question. But Elon chimed:

Tesla Announces $500 Million Stock Offering - TESLARATI.com

I don't object to Tesla delays, but it seems misinformation was given. I don't expect my non-sig X now until 1Q 2016. I doubt they will build more than a few thousand. Hope I am wrong. Loosing my trust in Tesla communication at ALL levels.
 
#382
Aljohn said:
We all should give ED his due... It appears he was more right than incorrect. Supplier issues apparently prevail:
Model X Expectations Lowered for 2015 - TESLARATI.com.
Click to expand...

I'm sure there's a name for the phenomenon where a rumor gets reported, which gets re-reported and then that report is used to justify the original rumor. Who knows?

- - - Updated - - -

Perhaps this reply from another thread adds some context:
AB4EJ said:
The ramp up depends on several things - usually first and foremost the suppliers. Often suppliers have as much trouble running at rate as the assembly plant - they have people to train, tooling to adjust, QC to do, etc., just like the OEM - just that there are a lot more of them. At Mercedes, our experience was usually that supplier problems caused more slowdowns and plant shutdowns than anything that happened at the plant. In some cases it got so bad that MB had to impose monetary penalties on suppliers (as allowable by the purchasing contract); an OEM tries to avoid that but sometimes has to do this to "get the attention" of supplier upper management. (OEMs get hurt if suppliers go bankrupt, so this has to be used judiciously).
Click to expand...
 
#384
No doubt. The next shoe to drop is whether or not the Model X configuration will open up by end of August as Elon said during the conference call. Any takers out there that the configurator will actually open before end of month? Based on info I've seen here and elsewhere, my bet is ... no, it won't open up before the end of August.
 
#385
AnOutsider said:
Unsure of that name, but I do know a name for what I see going on a lot in this thread: denial.
Click to expand...

Denial of what? :confused:

Eds main points were that some (or at least the one he seemingly worked for) suppliers weren't ready and that less than 100 customer cars would be delivered by year end. It's undeniable that Model X is a highly complex construction relying on hundreds, if not thousands, of new parts; so sure, any one single small part could mess things up. Less than 100 cars being delivered this year? Yes, perhaps I'm in denial about that one.

As a mod you might have access to the original posts....but otherwise we're all working from memory.
 
#386
I would like to join the party and make a WAG of my own. What if the delay is not at the supplier but Tesla is very close to finalizing a new drive unit design that is very robust and not prone to issues like the current one in the Model S? The driveunit from the Model S will be subject to higher loads on the X, even before you include towing. So Tesla would have wanted to design a new unit to avoid the 5-10%(probably lower) replacements they would have made on the S. This new design will soon be incorporated into the S once the X begins shipping. Or the new unit may already be shipped on the S and Tesla wants to get real world reliability data for a few months before they start building the model X in huge volumes.

Edit: I meant to add "if there is a delay at all". BTW I doubt anyone is more impatient than Tesla to get the X out. IF there is delay you can bet that there are very good reasons for it.
 
#387
Cosmacelf said:
No doubt. The next shoe to drop is whether or not the Model X configuration will open up by end of August as Elon said during the conference call. Any takers out there that the configurator will actually open before end of month? Based on info I've seen here and elsewhere, my bet is ... no, it won't open up before the end of August.
Click to expand...
I want to believe they'll meet an announced goal at some point. However, with as long as they've drawn it out already, the only thing I'm confident in is seeing the production version by the end of September.
 
#392
Fiver said:
At this point everyone should seriously start planning on the 3 shipping in volume in 2020. That way if it ships in 2019 or maybe even 2018 we all can be happy that Tesla beat our expectations for once.
Click to expand...
That is a way to manage expectations. However, I am going the other way. Model S took longer than expected since it was TM's first vehicle built from the 'ground up'. The X has 70% new parts and what appears to be some engineering challenges with the falcon doors and second row seats. Now TM has experience with manufacturing and the model3 is said to have far fewer engineering challenges. So, I expect production in 2017 with a significant ramp in 2018. I think we may be pleasantly surprised.

No...I have not been drinking any kool aid or anything with an alcohol content
 
#393
NigelM said:
I'm sure there's a name for the phenomenon where a rumor gets reported, which gets re-reported and then that report is used to justify the original rumor. Who knows?

- - - Updated - - -

Perhaps this reply from another thread adds some context:
Click to expand...

Circle jer.....

Self-fulfilling prophecy?

Seriously, only time will tell if Eds was correct about early Models X being substandard with true production quality coming later.
 
#394
You can call me what you want, but keep in mind this company is very young and if you know anything about manufacturing a completely new vehicle from the ground up it is not easy. Especially one that has never been done before, does their communication suck, yes. So the fact that they have made two models and are on their way to a third is amazing. They probably will not produce that many Model X vehicles until Q1, but the fact they are producing anything needs to be put in perspective.
 
#395
AlMc said:
That is a way to manage expectations. However, I am going the other way. Model S took longer than expected since it was TM's first vehicle built from the 'ground up'. The X has 70% new parts and what appears to be some engineering challenges with the falcon doors and second row seats. Now TM has experience with manufacturing and the model3 is said to have far fewer engineering challenges. So, I expect production in 2017 with a significant ramp in 2018. I think we may be pleasantly surprised.

No...I have not been drinking any kool aid or anything with an alcohol content
Click to expand...

Smoking then? :tongue:

I'm thinking 2018 at the earliest.
 
#397
#398
AlMc said:
That is a way to manage expectations. However, I am going the other way. Model S took longer than expected since it was TM's first vehicle built from the 'ground up'. The X has 70% new parts and what appears to be some engineering challenges with the falcon doors and second row seats. Now TM has experience with manufacturing and the model3 is said to have far fewer engineering challenges. So, I expect production in 2017 with a significant ramp in 2018. I think we may be pleasantly surprised.

No...I have not been drinking any kool aid or anything with an alcohol content
Click to expand...


With every new Tesla release, situation is different and Model 3 production will have it's own unique challenges:


  • finish building Gigafactory
  • optimizing battery production and chemistry while retaining reliability and longevity
  • cost cutting may introduce new (to Tesla) materials and assembly techniques
  • handling ever increasing demand for service and spare parts
  • larger production volumes requiring more stringent QC as mistakes will be costly
Overall, end of 2017 for Model 3 is very optimistic.
 
#399
Vitold said:
With every new Tesla release, situation is different and Model 3 production will have it's own unique challenges:


  • finish building Gigafactory
  • optimizing battery production and chemistry while retaining reliability and longevity
  • cost cutting may introduce new (to Tesla) materials and assembly techniques
  • handling ever increasing demand for service and spare parts
  • larger production volumes requiring more stringent QC as mistakes will be costly
Overall, end of 2017 for Model 3 is very optimistic.
Click to expand...

Here's a few more:
  • Procurement of assembly line equipment
  • Staff hires and training
  • Tracking processes
  • Logistics management
  • Multi-cavity toolings
  • Key components split between multiple suppliers
  • etc, etc,
The list is far from exhaustive....
 
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