Delay in model X launch?

[Svenssons]

Also, it is in... Germany.

The only way I'd expect that to make sense is if they launch first in the U.S., say a week earlier, and then subsequently would have a European showing at the fair. Mess with the Germans a little, too.

Seems theoretical, but not impossible.

The weekend of September 12-13 is still free here...

Tesla Events | Tesla Motors

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Also, it is in... Germany.

The only way I'd expect that to make sense is if they launch first in the U.S., say a week earlier, and then subsequently would have a European showing at the fair. Mess with the Germans a little, too.

Seems theoretical, but not impossible.

The weekend of September 12-13 is still free here...

Tesla Events | Tesla Motors

Good find, why not, then. Though isn't there a polo club event?

Also, I speculated here that if these rumors have any truth to them, Tesla may have pre-booked several events for post-launch marketing - who knows how long ago. If the launch were to be postponed by some weeks, for example, they I guess they would use those spaces to show the Model S, the old Model X prototype or somesuch.

Anyway, it could (probably would?) be a weekday for the actual launch. Then it could be pretty much any day prior to some event booking(s) that were to follow-up the actual launch (within the usual constraints of what constitutes as a good weekday to launch products).

Just wild speculation of course.

 

[tftf]

If his sources are correct the Model X is essentially a 2016 car:

According to our sources, Tesla has still not placed orders with at least three Tier One suppliers for necessary Model X components.
The company continues to negotiate with those suppliers, but the parts in question--certain high-strength aluminum components, as well as more generic parts like brake lines--will be necessary for any kind of volume deliveries.
Allowing time for tooling, testing, and a steady rampup of component production, that would put any kind of volume production at least three months out. Our sources suggest that it could be longer yet, as late as December or possibly even January.

(...)

Using hand-fabricated substitutes for those components, Tesla can likely now build some numbers of early Model X vehicles--fewer than 1,000, one source suggested--on the Model X assembly line it has created.
That would let the company meet its claim of first deliveries by the end of the current quarter.

(...)

That source's best guess is that real production--using production components delivered in volume from permanent suppliers--won't start until mid- or late December.
In the 10-Q, Tesla also notes: "Our transition from low to high volume production tooling for Model X may take longer than expected which may adversely impact our short-term financial results." (page 30)

Tesla Delivery Goal Fell Due To Slower Model X Production Ramp: Sources

As I noted in the GF investor thread Tesla will likely go for a massive equity raise soon imho - if these rumors/sources above are correct the only question is whether they will do it this quarter already to avoid the slow (or even delayed) Model X ramp-up confirmation.

 

[bonnie]

So basically, the GCR article is saying that high-volume production will be impacted. And then, of course, the last line of the GCR article made me laugh:

And that, our source suggests, is likely why the 2015 delivery floor has fallen from a confident 55,000 to as few as 50,000 vehicles.

Because 50,000 cars is clearly not substantial volume, but 55,000 would be.

 

[AnOutsider]

If his sources are correct the Model X is essentially a 2016 car:



(...)



(...)



Tesla Delivery Goal Fell Due To Slower Model X Production Ramp: Sources

As I noted in the GF investor thread Tesla will likely go for a massive equity raise soon imho - if these rumors/sources above are correct the only question is whether they will do it this quarter already to avoid the slow (or even delayed) Model X ramp-up confirmation.

....so basically what the OP was saying. Unless of course,t he OP is their source.

- - - Updated - - -

Because 50,000 cars is clearly not substantial volume, but 55,000 would be. [/FONT][/COLOR]

I didn't read it that way. I read it as the floor has fallen from 55k to as little as 50k. Not that 50k is "little".

 

[ohmman]

....so basically what the OP was saying. Unless of course,t he OP is their source.

Ha! Wouldn't that be something?

I didn't read it that way. I read it as the floor has fallen from 55k to as little as 50k. Not that 50k is "little".

I read it the same way. And since that's aggregate of MS and MX, I think the implication is that it's 5k less MXs from production, which would be a substantial enough change.

 

[bonnie]

Not that 50k is "little".

That was the implication that made me laugh.

 

[n88]

... and sadly, I read it that instead of 5K of MXs making a total production goal of MS & MX @ 55K, there would be closer to 0K MXs, lowering total production goal to 50K combined S & X.

 

[simplejack]

That was the implication that made me laugh.

I guess it depends on your perspective. A public company announcing they are missing revenue targets by 10% is pretty substantial.

 

[bonnie]

I guess it depends on your perspective. A public company announcing they are missing revenue targets by 10% is pretty substantial.

Of course it is.

I think my point is missed. GCR's adjectives made me laugh. That's all. As far as the drop in target, that's been known since the earnings call - so I didn't think that part was news to this group. It was ONLY GCR's wording that I was commenting upon. They could have simply said "And that, our source suggests, is likely why the 2015 delivery floor has fallen from 55,000 to 50,000 vehicles."

 

[NigelM]

If his sources are correct the Model X is essentially a 2016 car:

(...)

(...)

Tesla Delivery Goal Fell Due To Slower Model X Production Ramp: Sources

As I noted in the GF investor thread Tesla will likely go for a massive equity raise soon imho - if these rumors/sources above are correct the only question is whether they will do it this quarter already to avoid the slow (or even delayed) Model X ramp-up confirmation.

In other words "It's a slow news day so we rehashed some rumors to fill in the gap..."

[/yawn]

 

[tftf]

In other words "It's a slow news day so we rehashed some rumors to fill in the gap..."
[/yawn]

So this is all rumor and no substance in your opinion?

How many Model X will be delivered in 2015 (by Dec 31, 2015) in your opinion?

Looking at the supply chain is a very good indicator how a ramp-up will go in my opinion.

Either all these GCR sources (plural) are wrong or there will be only a (very) low 4-digit number of Model X delivered in 2015.

 

[NigelM]

So this is all rumor and no substance in your opinion?

How many Model X will be delivered in 2015 (by Dec 31, 2015) in your opinion?

Looking at the supply chain is a very good indicator how a ramp-up will go in my opinion.

Either all these GCR sources (plural) are wrong or there will be only a (very) low 4-digit number of Model X delivered in 2015.

I'm not going to bite, I recognize the style.

What I was saying is that these are rehashed rumors, read this thread, take a look at the ER and listen to the CC. We all know there's a substantial number of risks in this launch and ramp-up, as with any new complex manufacturing process.

 

[tftf]

Rehashed? This was news to me:

According to our sources, Tesla has still not placed orders with at least three Tier One suppliers for necessary Model X components.


The company continues to negotiate with those suppliers, but the parts in question--certain high-strength aluminum components, as well as more generic parts like brake lines--will be necessary for any kind of volume deliveries.

Allowing time for tooling, testing, and a steady rampup of component production, that would put any kind of volume production at least three months out. Our sources suggest that it could be longer yet, as late as December or possibly even January.

If there were more sources reporting this earlier, I must have missed it.

 

[NigelM]

If there were more sources reporting this earlier, I must have missed it.

Guess you did. Never mind, no offence taken.

 

[AnOutsider]

Rehashed? This was news to me:
...
If there were more sources reporting this earlier, I must have missed it.

Before the OP was edited out, he basically said as much.

 

[eloder]

Before the OP was edited out, he basically said as much.

Yup.

If it wasn't true, I don't think Tesla would have requested a take-down of the original post.

I imagine any sort of ramp-up won't be happening until Q1 2016.

 

[mzpolo]

Either all these GCR sources (plural) are wrong or there will be only a (very) low 4-digit number of Model X delivered in 2015.

Seriously.... Did any of us really think that there would be anything more than a "(very) low 4-digit number of Model X delivered in 2015". Shoot, when I reserved I hoped (and still hope) for delivery in 2015 but expect it... heck no!
Tesla has been showing nothing at all to indicate anything different either.
And the comment to get me a black eye.... Too many of the readers/commenters here have unrealistic expectations and little grasp of the engineering effort required to bring a complex product to market.

 

[lucy]

I guess I just wish that the company would be more up front in their:
1. communication with current reservation holders
2. promises to potential buyers.

MX page still says

"The delivery estimate for new
reservations is early 2016"​

 

[tinm]

I guess I just wish that the company would be more up front in their:
1. communication with current reservation holders
2. promises to potential buyers.

MX page still says

"The delivery estimate for new
reservations is early 2016"​

Forget it, Lucy. It's Teslatown.

Want competence and innovation in battery tech? No prob. Competence and innovation in automotive design? Piece of cake. Competence and innovation in customer communication? Ha, you're such a kidder.