The ev-cpo page shows that many Model S ordered as inventory car replacements (during Q1) ended up as P90D and P90DL cars now being sent across the USA, Canada and Europe. That's a lot of high-priced inventory. If the trend of orders is for S60 and S60D (per the RBC statement) then what is the need for so many high-end cars? It seems to be a reason for the low delivery number in Q2 - lots of inventory replacement shipping and build-up. If there was a need to make paid orders wait, I'd question what the reasoning was.
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I don't think of any reason why Tesla would deliberately make paid orders wait unnecessarily. I go with the simple explanation of greatly reduced production in the first 6 to 8 weeks to fix X production quality issues, refresh of model S, and then steep ramp in the last 4 weeks of Q2.
The proof is in in-transit units nearly doubled as a result. Mind that these are specifically called out as customer-ordered cars. There is no way Tesla can fudge that.
What a coincidence. Generally, I don't believe what you write here. However, we are on the same page this time. I do believe 60KWh MS will take lions share as that product is just too good (upgradeable battery with minimal overage, same battery warranty, supercharger access).
A great feature of the 60 is that you can do a 100% range charge daily - since it uses a 75 kWh battery - you never hit the top or bottom of the state of charge. With a 75, most owners would probably not choose to run it up to 100%, so they would normally be treating it as a 60 daily anyway until they went long-distance.
Well isn't that odd, since I thought Tesla was "stimulating" demand by not producing vehicles as quickly as they could...
I think it's pretty important to make sure the showrooms have the current model. It gets a lot harder to refill the order backlog if they don't. So really it does make sense to send 1000 cars for marketing. ( Apparently loaners are coming out of the trade-ins / CPOs now.)
Well, if they're *marketing* cars it would make sense. Tesla's sold an awful lot of "P"s by not having non-P's to test-drive, so that people who liked driving the P were afraid to get a non-P model.
.As inventory cars, it doesn't make as much sense. But on the other hand, the "I want it NOW NOW NOW" market may be more inclined to buy the fully-loaded top-of-the-line model. (Anecdotally this seems to be the case.) So if I'm right and the inventory is intended to catch these impatient buyers, it may be deliberatedly skewed towards fully-loaded models.
Actually, the skewing of the inventory build towards top-end models reinforces my belief that this is trying to catch a particular segment of the luxury market -- the very rich and very impatient. If the inventory were not for this purpose, it would not be balanced this way.
The steep ramp requires some 'xplaining from Tesla. Why don't they just make and deliver 15K Model S a quarter to keep analysts happy?
They are trying to stimulate demand by introducing a lower margin product. Gross margin deterioration and the hit to earnings will be evident on the Q2 ER.
The "stimulated demand" could last through Q3 but Q4 on, till Model 3 will be tepid.
Not really. They delivered relatively few 60kWh models in Q2. The hit will only really be visible in Q3 in my opinion.
And introducing a lower cost vehicle that increases revenue at the cost of gross margin matters because? Isn't that where we're going with the model 3? And the current valuation is based on expected model 3 revenue levels?
Not necessarily. If they have a stagnant product, perhaps. But a 100 kWh battery, Autopilot 2.0, uptake on Model X, etc. will create a new demand wave. 2017 demand for S & X will exceed 100,000, easy. Add South Korea, a resurgent Germany, China getting its legs etc. and you're there.
I am skeptical if 100kwh would add a lot to demand since MS can now go almost 300 miles on full charge.
Anecdotal reports in this forum that it takes a long time to schedule test drives because of the demand for them. I am equating higher demand for test drives with higher demand for cars.
I am skeptical too it would add a lot of demand, but not skeptical at all that it would add demand. You also have a lot of cars coming off 4 year warranties and/or 3 year leases in 2017 - some of those people will opt up.
For Tesla to sell 100K+ S/X probably required China to come on strong. There doesn't seem to be any reason for German's to suddenly increase demand. Like everyone, they have the model 3 coming. And I assume that German's are the most interested in what the German car companies will produce.
Model X sales post model 3 release will be interesting. I assume that it will be more niche than the model S, but I really don't have a guess. As an SUV it is a polarizing design.
GBleck
Member
Is the 60kw model s just in the lineup to qualify for the new price capped subsidies? Does it fit und the price cap?
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