Q4'16 Delivery Estimates

[TMSE]

Please share your estimates for Q4'16

 

[TMSE]

My estimate for Q4 delivery is 26,500

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

25,500. from Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

It's more than Q3, despite 2 fewer production weeks, and it's just enough to make the 50k H2 guidance. It would've been awesome to be higher, but the holidays is a tough time to move product at the end of quarter.

 

[Troy]

22,750

 

[jbcarioca]

I think they'll manage the low end of guidance, so 26,000 or a trifle less.

 

[Troy]

Check out this story on Reddit. Instead these kind tactics, I wish they would have focused on releasing the S100D and X100D.

2016Q4 delivery changes - Seems shady. Anyone experienced this in Q3 or now? • /r/teslamotors

 

[Bgarret]

26,781

 

[AlMc]

24,679

 

[Crowded Mind]

Can we get more granularity in this poll? 23-26k is a massive range.

 

[KLC13]

24k vehicles..slight miss on the H2 target of 50k

 

[EinSV]

26,200

 

[dc_h]

26,201

12,002 X
13,999 S

 

[NannerAirCraft]

26,100

15,100 Model S
11,000 Model X

 

[AudubonB]

2.5x10^4 ±10%

 

[JRP3]

25,711

 

[pp626]

Out of curiosity, can anyone provide some insight on how well collective TMC quarterly estimates have done in the past?

 

[JRP3]

We've done fairly well in the past VERY SHORT-LIVED THREAD: Your best #s for 3Q16 Delivery Numbers

 

[dennis]

26,600 from Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

10,700 Model X
15,900 Model S

 

[Turing]

I really think people should also have to give estimates for cars in transit. Someone that thinks they hit 26k by shrinking cars in transit down to 2k, is quite a lot different than someone that thinks they hit 26k while maintaining 5k in transit. Last quarter a number of posters on here thought Tesla was going to have good delivery numbers but mostly because of the assumption that they were sort of juicing the numbers and going to shrink cars in transit.

 

[dc_h]

26,201

12,002 X
13,999 S

5012 in transit. 1500 of those in service centers.