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Q4'16 Delivery Estimates

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by TMSE, Dec 16, 2016.

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What is your Q4'16 Delivery Estimate?

Poll closed Jan 2, 2017.
  1. Up to 20,000

    1.8%
  2. 20,001 to 23,000

    11.4%
  3. 23,001 to 26,000

    47.6%
  4. 26,001 to 29,000

    34.9%
  5. 29,001 or more

    4.2%
  1. TMSE

    TMSE Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2016
    Messages:
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    Location:
    Seattle
    Please share your estimates for Q4'16
     
    • Helpful x 1
  2. TMSE

    TMSE Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2016
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    775
    Location:
    Seattle
    My estimate for Q4 delivery is 26,500
     
  3. Oil4AsphaultOnly

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2015
    Messages:
    724
    Location:
    Arcadia, CA
    25,500. from Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

    It's more than Q3, despite 2 fewer production weeks, and it's just enough to make the 50k H2 guidance. It would've been awesome to be higher, but the holidays is a tough time to move product at the end of quarter.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  4. Troy

    Troy Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    944
    Location:
    22,750
     
    • Informative x 1
  5. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2015
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    2,387
    I think they'll manage the low end of guidance, so 26,000 or a trifle less.
     
    • Informative x 1
  6. Troy

    Troy Member

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    #6 Troy, Dec 16, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2016
    • Informative x 4
  7. Bgarret

    Bgarret Model S ownin' Michigan scofflaw

    Joined:
    May 10, 2013
    Messages:
    1,081
    Location:
    Michigan
    26,781
     
    • Informative x 1
  8. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2013
    Messages:
    6,186
    Location:
    Delaware
    24,679
     
    • Informative x 1
  9. Crowded Mind

    Crowded Mind Member

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2014
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    521
    Location:
    Wisconsin
    Can we get more granularity in this poll? 23-26k is a massive range.
     
    • Like x 2
    • Helpful x 1
  10. KLC13

    KLC13 Member

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    Oct 2, 2016
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    Location:
    Toronto
    24k vehicles..slight miss on the H2 target of 50k
     
  11. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2016
    Messages:
    1,744
    Location:
    NorCal
    26,200
     
    • Like x 1
  12. dc_h

    dc_h Member

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    Naperville, IL
    #12 dc_h, Dec 16, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2016
    26,201

    12,002 X
    13,999 S
     
    • Funny x 3
  13. NannerAirCraft

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2013
    Messages:
    63
    Location:
    Linwood, MN
    26,100

    15,100 Model S
    11,000 Model X
     
    • Like x 1
  14. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2013
    Messages:
    5,250
    2.5x10^4 ±10%
     
    • Like x 4
    • Helpful x 1
    • Informative x 1
  15. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

    Joined:
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    11,415
    Location:
    Central New York
  16. pp626

    pp626 New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2016
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    Location:
    Arlington, VA
    Out of curiosity, can anyone provide some insight on how well collective TMC quarterly estimates have done in the past?
     
  17. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    Aug 20, 2007
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    Central New York
  18. dennis

    dennis P85D

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2012
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    1,695
    Location:
    Silicon Valley CA
  19. Turing

    Turing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2014
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    CA
    I really think people should also have to give estimates for cars in transit. Someone that thinks they hit 26k by shrinking cars in transit down to 2k, is quite a lot different than someone that thinks they hit 26k while maintaining 5k in transit. Last quarter a number of posters on here thought Tesla was going to have good delivery numbers but mostly because of the assumption that they were sort of juicing the numbers and going to shrink cars in transit.
     
  20. dc_h

    dc_h Member

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    Naperville, IL
    5012 in transit. 1500 of those in service centers.
     

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