adiggs
Well-Known Member
Yeah - the "will it fit in the garage" test. It turns out that it does, but we decided to name it "Hugo". Because "Humongous" is just too long to say all the time
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Yeah - the "will it fit in the garage" test. It turns out that it does, but we decided to name it "Hugo". Because "Humongous" is just too long to say all the time
And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that (well, we can discuss Tesla's constant, multi-times a quarter change policy as a different question in other threads). Nothing wrong with that from a demand perspective, it is normal that models lose demand over time.
I am merely of the opinion Tesla is not production constrained on Model S/X anymore and despite of facelift(s) in 2016 and ramping up the still-new Model X, that seems to remain the case in 2017. I do agree they used to be production costrained in around 2013-2015.
mmd
Active Member
Oh yes, I have seen turnaround times of 10 days near quarter ends. The spreadsheets don't capture all deliveries.
Now, this is bs, or you are repeating someone else's bs. Is Tesla running 3 shifts? Didn't Tesla also report 2400(or 2200) cars produced in a week? At that rate,it can produce 31200/28600 in 13 weeks. This may not be the most optimal setup, but 25k is definitely not the limit. When the line is running 24 hours, 7 days a week at its max speed, that is the limit.
But I see that you agreed in essence, that Tesla is matching production to demand. If Tesla thought it could sell more S&X easily, wouldn't it be pulling more production levers instead of demand levers? Think about it, and let us know what production levers Tesla has pulled in the last many quarters.
PS: Elon's statements are not always facts. AP2 due in Dec'16 is still less than AP 1.0. He has said many incorrect things.
Tesla just decided to plug that particular car in a free slot one month from now. Doesn't mean that there aren't any earlier slots available.
dennis
Model S Plaid
I see that you don't follow Tesla that closely, except maybe for things that fit your bear narrative. Otherwise you would know that Tesla added a third shift at the beginning of 2017. And reduced overtime significantly because it was contributing to worker repetitive stress injuries. The relevant quote from Elon (from the Q1 call) about the S+X line being designed for 100K per year and the difficulty of operating beyond the design limits has been quoted here so many times I'm not going to bother going to find it again.
To expect Tesla or any other manufacturing company to be able to produce at peak weekly output for 13 weeks in a quarter with zero downtime for maintenance or line changes is ridiculous. What profession are you in?
So Tesla randomly decides to skip earlier available spots and make customers wait for what reason exactly?
Because it hopes to be able to fill that available earlier slot in the days to come with an order from Florida, so that both orders can be delivered this quarter. This is all well-documented behaviour that is easy to follow in the model S tracking spreadsheet.
mmd
Active Member
Yes, I do remember that. As you yourself said, it was to reduce overtime and injury rates during end of quarter pushes. Tesla changed two 12 hour shifts to three 8 hour shifts; so this move doesn't increase production. No word about the middle or beginning of quarters, when Tesla pulls the throttle levers.
NUMMI - WikipediaWikipedia said:
Toyota was making ~400k cars there, so why is Tesla's line designed for only 100K a year, 20 years later, using more modern machines? I think, you will agree it is either intentional or a design flaw to have such low capacity. Electric cars are claimed to have very few moving parts (Ron Baron research), so it should be easier to manufacture. Don't believe everything told in the Tesla ERs; pay attention to what Jeff Evanson says about forward looking statements and the escape paths for execs for what they say in the ERs.
BTW, Nice try diverting the subject with personal attack/query. If I tell you I am the CEO of YumYum electric motors, will you believe my words without all these debates?
Another reason for this projected "1.5 month wait time" (3 months at beginning of quarters) could be just a bone that Tesla throws at bulls like @JRP3 and bullish analysts like Jonas, who use it to push their narrative of "Tesla has insatiable demand".
Because it's not? They are currently setup for over 100K S/X and however many Model 3's they can produce, eventually ramping up to 500K. 100K + 500K = more than 400K
Don't descend in silly conspiracy theories. There is a perfectly good business explanation why the wait time for Californian orders is just so they can make end of quarter delivery. They need to maximize current quarterly deliveries over future quarterly deliveries. It's unfortunate, but that comes with the territory of being a public company.
mmd
Active Member
The company has set plenty of precedents for such hypes (hyperboles) without any apparent 'business reason'.
If you see how the bulls like @JRP3 (representing >90% of retail TSLA longs, imho) and some analysts run with these tidbits, it is not that silly. When the company's survival depends on continuous capital raises, execs are cashing their options left and right, and it uses high SP to justify lower wages to employees, I'd argue that keeping the stock price artificially inflated by all means is a paramount 'business reason'.
I won't take anything off the table; Tesla needs to go all out to help with that objective
BTW, what 'business explanation' do you have for Tesla to hide ~90% of their inventory? Or the reason to play hide and seek with their inventory cars? Now you see them; now you don't
Sure, like when Elon on three separate occasions said the stock price was too high, that was secretly artificially inflating the price by any means...
dennis
Model S Plaid
Probably because guys like you who don't understand how Tesla's business model is different from all of the other car companies would make erroneous conclusions based on the number of inventory cars. That's the same reason that they don't publish monthly sales figures.BTW, what 'business explanation' do you have for Tesla to hide ~90% of their inventory? Or the reason to play hide and seek with their inventory cars? Now you see them; now you don't
This inane demand speculation is why I love the tesla vision and my model s ....but can't make any sense of the stock it is priced for perfection too many years out into the future to make any reasonable conclusion based on 2017 or 2018 demand with looming execution risk .....the junk bond offering is interesting....at least shares outstanding are not diluted.....but makes you think?
mmd
Active Member
That's exactly what I'm talking about! You picked a tidbit and ran with it to prove your view. But the whole double-spoken statement means entirely different.
Paraphrasing Elon, with additional commentary in italics by yours truly:
"Yeah, our SP is high if you base it on where we are today. But based on our future potential, which I have painted with very bright & sparkling colors while wearing the rosiest of my eye glasses for all of you to behold, it is worth a lot more. I have told my German employees, the stock can quadruple soon. Yeah, soon we will sell millions of cars at huge gross margins. We will be a trillion dollar company."
Haha! Guys like me are already doing the math and know how many inventory cars are under the surface
This hide and seek must be for guys & gals who are not like me.
Last edited:
RobStark
Well-Known Member
There is no such thing as perfect execution.
Therefore no institutional investors nor reasonable retail investors expect perfect execution.
Ergo the stock is not priced for perfect execution.
Just looked into the Oct/Nov/Dec table and noticed a crazy amount of orders from Norway.
Checked out elbilforum.no and it seems like they had a 0.25% financing offer until a few days ago.
What's also interesting is that some of those cars already went into production. Maybe Tesla hopes to get those delivered late Q3.
Checked out elbilforum.no and it seems like they had a 0.25% financing offer until a few days ago.
What's also interesting is that some of those cars already went into production. Maybe Tesla hopes to get those delivered late Q3.
Similar threads
