Depreciation on a used Model 3?

[Hiline]

I'm thinking of getting a Model 3 with a plan of selling it in 2-3 years (personal reasons). I drive around 2k miles a month, and I'm looking at a 2018 LR RWD with 60k miles for around $30k. How much do you think I can sell it for after 3 years and 75k miles? It'll be 8 years old with 135k miles by then.

 

[jjrandorin]

No one can even make an educated guess, since the oldest model 3s at this point are late 2017, or 6 years old. Trying to time depreciation is always a gamble because "past performance is no guarantee of future success" so there is nothing that can be posited here except baseless speculation.

TL ; DR - No idea, and anything anyone says is just a guess which is no different than your own guess.

 

[afadeev]

I'm thinking of getting a Model 3 with a plan of selling it in 2-3 years (personal reasons). I drive around 2k miles a month, and I'm looking at a 2018 LR RWD with 60k miles for around $30k. How much do you think I can sell it for after 3 years and 75k miles? It'll be 8 years old with 135k miles by then.

If you are OK with selling it for $100, you might get pleasantly surprised in the end.
Other than that, who the hell knows!

HTH,
a

 

[Leafdriver333]

I would buy a new one if you qualify for $7500 tax credit.
New inventory vehicle can be had for $38xxx. and when you get $7500 back, it is basically ~ $31000 before state incentive.
In three years it will be about 60-65% of new vehicle.

 

[Hiline]

I would buy a new one if you qualify for $7500 tax credit.
New inventory vehicle can be had for $38xxx. and when you get $7500 back, it is basically ~ $31000 before state incentive.
In three years it will be about 60-65% of new vehicle.

So you think in 3 years a 2023 Model 3 SR with 72k miles could sell for around $20k?

I was thinking a 2018 Model 3 LR RWD would depreciate less since it's already 5 years old, and probably would also have more range. The audio system is also better.

 

[E90alex]

Depends what price cuts or price hikes Tesla has by then. My 22 LR lost over 25% in value overnight when they dropped the prices in Jan, as did all other used Teslas.

 

[kpanda17]

2023M3RWD today $40k
12k miles per year, no accidents, keep clean
2026 36k miles estimate $28K 30% bigger drop, 10% per year
2029 six years old 72k miles $24K less drop, 5% per year
Big impacts on retail trade clean, accidents, mileage
Big impacts on wholesale trade accident and mileage (my trade ins at Tesla they never looked at how clean the vehicle was)

Today a long range is effectively $40K
Six year depreciation or 45% would be $26K
Usable range of 90% or 300 miles
Or $10K premium for better stereo and +37 miles of extra range

I agree with the guys, buy new RWD at eff $31K
It’s has the superior and cheaper LFP batteries with a real range of max 97% or 263 miles
In six years it will be worth $20K

My opponions

 

[dcantato]

It’s has the superior and cheaper LFP batteries with a real range of max 97% or 263 miles

Are LFP batteries superior? I thought it was more of a they are different scenario.

 

[kpanda17]

For just percentage of available use mapping to range, yes
also, these M3Ps eliminate the use of cobalt which is great
two batt tech paths, LFP types for large in constrained use, semi trucks, low end vehicles/avg range req, storage
and Lithium ion for the mid to higher end vehicles with high energy density req for longer range, LRs, performance, lux vehicles, large suvs
will be interesting to see if a new batt tech like solid state can replace both with one type
but think LFP type will be the long term cheap battery strategy

 

[E90alex]

Are LFP batteries superior? I thought it was more of a they are different scenario.

There’s pros and cons. They are cheaper and can handle more frequent 100% charging with less long term degradation.

But they are heavier and less energy dense so less range. Take longer to heat up so less ideal for very cold climates. Does not charge or discharge as quickly so can’t be used in faster cars.

That’s why Tesla only uses them in the cheapest, slowest, shortest range base RWD models.

 

[kpanda17]

Yes, but the research and innovations with LFP battery types is big
alot of activity while we wait for solid state
think the point is major innovations in batt tech, IRA supported work in the usa
and btw, LFP tech was invented in rhe usa, one of the inventors just died at 100

Nobel-winning inventor of lithium-ion battery maker John B Goodenough dies at 100

John B. Goodenough received his Nobel Prize at the age of 97 years, which made him the oldest recipient of a Nobel Prize.

www.businesstoday.in

proud usa is always leading innovation

 

[TzlaTina]

The 2023 Model 3 LR RWD does not have LFP. It has the same 75kwh HV battery as the LR AWD.
The SR RWD has LFP

 

[kpanda17]

Sorry, talking about the project highland rumor that the M3 is moving to M3P batteries

 

[kpanda17]

My Jan 2023 M3RWD has LFP batteries
In the usa we don’t have RWD LR

 

[WyoDude]

I would bet in 3 years you could resell it for 12k at least

 

[kpanda17]

The values are holding
there are only 129 M3s available throughout the USA right now, not grest

 

[Unclepaul]

While it will tend to hold value pretty well, a significant issue is that the battery warranty will end after 8 years.

 

[kpanda17]

Unless you hit a defect, current batteries are predicted to last over 20 years

 

[afadeev]

Unless you hit a defect, current batteries are predicted to last over 20 years

Predicted by who?
Which batteries exactly: 18650-type, 2170-Panasonic (US), 2170-LG Chem (China), 4680-type, and prismatic-LFP batteries by CATL (China)?

There are far too many batteries in Tesla cars, with materially different chemistry and longevity, to provide a one size fits all answer!

 

[kpanda17]

just google and read the sources, don't shoot the messenger
and they give ranges