Do you think the Model 3's value will hold well past its four-year warranty?

[Atlantan]

Here are some real numbers for my S...

• Original sticker was $105K
• CPO sale price after 3 years and 47K miles was $55K (Retail asking price at non-Tesla dealers for similar mileage at the time was $5K-$7K less relative to Tesla CPO sale price)
• That's 52.38% depreciation in just 3 years and 47K miles
• Original owner drove 15.6K miles annually which I believe would be average annual mileage in the States.

If the Model 3 were to follow the same depreciation rate, at 50K miles in 3-4 years I would expect it to depreciate by 50%.

In 4 years the supply of the 3s in the marketplace would be more than the supply of Model Ss back in 2016, so possibly more depreciation...who knows, just conjecture at this point but above are some actuals for forecasting.

 

[Xenoilphobe]

My 2013 P85 had a similar depreciation curve. Sold it at 50K miles with an ESA for 100K miles. New it sold for $117K and after 3 years I sold it for $57K.

I still think the Y will tank the 3 resale value (if the dont screw it up with weird seats, and falcon wing doors), when it comes out in 2022

 

[kotykb]

If you're concerned about resale value, keep the Model 3 until the backlog is ~6 months minimum wait tile for a new Model 3, you should be able to limit the depreciation. That could easily be 2-3 years down the road depending on the demand of the car, if right now its 12-18 months, which means 18 months. If you factor the $7500 tax credit that the owners won't get down the road, depreciation will be minimal. I'm selling my newer Audi Q5 because I like the Model 3 and it will depreciate less than my SUV over the next 2-3 years.