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Do you think the Model 3's value will hold well past its four-year warranty?

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From 50k to 10k I am not sure I can't live with that. I really want the model 3 but I hate loosing money.
then you should never buy a factory-new car, EVER.
Tesla`s low production volumes have kinda kept degradation at bay so far.
However, the moment Tesla becomes a volume manufacturer we can expect the same as with bmw, mercedes etc. where you lose a dacia or two in resale value every year.
In the end even a Tesla is just a car.
 
My strategy for cars:
  1. Buy a new car that I really enjoy.
  2. Pay it off early and drive it for at least 10 years.
  3. Sell it for whatever I can get for it.
This way I don’t care about depreciation. The only concern is choosing one that’s reliable enough to last a decade without massive repair bills.

That has been my strategy except for the love part. It has been a successful strategy with Honda's and hopefully a Toyota and a Tesla.
 
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So, I'm looking at this along the lines of iphone 1, 2, 3. I got an iphone 1 ... it was way ahead of its time and super cool. But those were early days. Apple quickly pushed the product with a much bigger better screen and updated the comms and the compute power and everyone just had to have the latest and greatest. Only one group of people were snapping up the old iphone 1's and 2's ... those looking for a 'great deal' ... they liked the product, but didnt want to pay that much for it.

I think it will be the same deal here ... and I think it will really push down the resale values.

Everyone keeps talking about the paradigm shift that'll happen as we transit to EVs ... I think resale values will be one of them. Right now there is not much difference between a 2012 Corolla and a 2017 Corolla besides styling (really ... what else changes?). So depreciation is somewhat limited, just scaled down for age and use. As we move forward depreciation is going to be both age/use + obsolescence as new and better tech comes out with each vehicle ... get used to it.

The enabler of smartphone success is faster data speed. The enabler for BEV will be reasonable driving range and cheap charging but the latter isn't happening. Many charging stations charge a lot more for convenience so battery size is looking more key.

Anything beyond is good but unnecessary unless extra data or extra battery size come with no cost or disadvantage.
 
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then you should never buy a factory-new car, EVER.
Tesla`s low production volumes have kinda kept degradation at bay so far.
However, the moment Tesla becomes a volume manufacturer we can expect the same as with bmw, mercedes etc. where you lose a dacia or two in resale value every year.
In the end even a Tesla is just a car.

That why I buy Toyota's, Honda's or Subaru's.
 
I think Khan3 has nailed it.. Its immature and rapidly changing technology, it going to be the equivalent of an iphone 1 in a few years.. was way ahead of the competition, but everybody will have a new whiz-bang EV with better range/charging/styling in 5 years.
A big enough battery more or less negates the requirement for quicker charging. Styling is superficial but helps.

Enough range, minimal degradation and reliable enough in all other aspects will protect some resale value.
 
A big enough battery more or less negates the requirement for quicker charging. Styling is superficial but helps.

Enough range, minimal degradation and reliable enough in all other aspects will protect some resale value.
Indeed. It is comparable with the present situation of the S. In Europe a four years old Model S goes for roughly 50-70% of it's original price. Even the 60 is keeping it's resale value although it seems to be harder to sell as I discovered at this Dutch lease company's site.
 
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My father once sold an old truck, the new owner drove it a half a mile and the axle cracked. While I don't like to saddle others with my problems, that is the perfect time to get rid of a car. No residue value other than recycling value means it is impossible to 'lose money'.

Thank you kindly.
 
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@ Topher you're always thanking us kindly. It always distracts me thinking 'what is he thanking us for?'. Probably our attention, but never mind.
The art of selling your car is finding the right moment. Your father had it right that time (although the new owner might return and demand a cashback), but it's not easy to find that moment. Too late can be expensive, too early also.
It is an art I've gotten better in as time has gone by and I resold more of my cars.
 
A big enough battery more or less negates the requirement for quicker charging. Styling is superficial but helps.

Enough range, minimal degradation and reliable enough in all other aspects will protect some resale value.

Enough range is subjective though. A nissan leaf has enough range for 90% of my driving, but it still doesn't have enough range for me to consider buying one. Its a matter of both. if you tried to sell me an EV that had a genuine 400mile range, but could only recharge at 10kW, it would be a non starter. Ditto if you tried to sell me one that had a 100mile range but recharged in 5 mins. There is both a minimum range and a maximum charging time that is tolerable.
 
My strategy for cars:
  1. Buy a new car that I really enjoy.
  2. Pay it off early and drive it for at least 10 years.
  3. Sell it for whatever I can get for it.
This way I don’t care about depreciation. The only concern is choosing one that’s reliable enough to last a decade without massive repair bills.
A more cost-effective strategy is to buy a two year old CPO car that one really enjoys. Skip the steepest part of the depreciation curve and the CPO warranty should help with any problems that develop in the first couple of years.
 
Enough range is subjective though. A nissan leaf has enough range for 90% of my driving, but it still doesn't have enough range for me to consider buying one. Its a matter of both. if you tried to sell me an EV that had a genuine 400mile range, but could only recharge at 10kW, it would be a non starter. Ditto if you tried to sell me one that had a 100mile range but recharged in 5 mins. There is both a minimum range and a maximum charging time that is tolerable.

Well, my wife drives around 130 miles to work once a week so I know what the lower bound range I will require before committing to a BEV. No point for me to exclude those already known work related trips (her drive is not going away) in my purchase decision just to save on shorter trips. It's not as if the Bolt, the 225 mile 2019 Leaf or the Tesla will not cover that driving distance.

As long as I can charge the car to 90% overnight, I really don't care how slow it charges, especially if it had 220 miles or more range because 95% of our leisure driving will be shorter than 130 miles. It's those 130 mile trips (and other long enough distance) that will heavily justify the BEV purchase.

I don't mind if I can't drive a BEV 300 miles round trip because for those times, I can just take our RAV4 Hybrid. Those times may be 3-4 times a year so a humongous battery pack to take me to 400 miles is not required. It's just going to be dead weight for 99% of our trips.

Equipping a vehicle with faster charging is probably a lot cheaper (just need some technology workaround) than installing a bigger battery pack (you can't demand significant discounts to market prices for these precious rare metals) and so it will just be a matter of one or two years before all BEVs will have "quick"er charging compared to those currently available in the market. Can't say that for Li-ion batteries because there was an article on insideevs I believe that talked about how Tesla is hoarding a lot of the raw materials for battery production.

Not sure how much 10 kW charging will put into a 400 mile BEV but if it can charge up to 220 miles in 12 hours, I'd rather have that if I don't have to pay for the battery pack premium. Of course, that's not going to happen because battery material costs the manufacturer a couple times more than building a technological solution to enable faster charging. You can R&D the fast charging part and it will cost you very little but you can't R&D the rare / precious metals you need (e.g. turn mud into lithium and copper to cobalt).

If we pretend battery sizes don't add to the cost, then you can see it's better to have a 1000 mile BEV charging at 10 kW than to have a 100 mile BEV charging at 100 kW because the former will encompass many more driving scenarios while with the latter, you have to pay charging stations along the way.
 
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My strategy for cars:
  1. Buy a new car that I really enjoy.
  2. Pay it off early and drive it for at least 10 years.
  3. Sell it for whatever I can get for it.
This way I don’t care about depreciation. The only concern is choosing one that’s reliable enough to last a decade without massive repair bills.

That's a sound strategy however the explosion in automotive technology, especially in the area of vehicle safety has made that harder to justify doing.

The safety rating and level of safety that is now standard in newer mid to high end cars is astounding compared to what was offered on premium cars even just 10 years ago.

And that doesn't even get into the technology piece where we've gone from CDs and AM/FM radio to internet streamed radio, news feeds, bluetooth handsfree mobile telephone usage, real-time updated maps, traffic integration and avoidance, etc.
 
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That's a sound strategy however the explosion in automotive technology, especially in the area of vehicle safety has made that harder to justify doing.

The safety rating and level of safety that is now standard in newer mid to high end cars is astounding compared to what was offered on premium cars even just 10 years ago.

And that doesn't even get into the technology piece where we've gone from CDs and AM/FM radio to internet streamed radio, news feeds, bluetooth handsfree mobile telephone usage, real-time updated maps, traffic integration and avoidance, etc.
That’s one reason I’m choosing Tesla, OTA updates helps with this to a point.
 
EV's have one of the lowest resale values around. Buy the car for what you want it for and enjoy it. If you are buying for resale value then you are buying the wrong car. Technology changes fast and being the EV's are in the early stages there are many changes ahead. Look at the number of EV's that will be on the market in 2 years. The model 3 will be far outdated in 4-5 years.
 
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