Electric Cars & Saving the World

[bcdavis75]

My old man forwarded me the below Quora post--he is constantly debating me on the merits of electric cars.The post has a pretty narrow premise which relates specifically to the cost effectiveness of Electric cars a medium for reducing CO2. The conclusion: electric vehicles are a pretty crummy way to reduce CO2 emissions, given the current US power mix.

None of this effects my love of the car. But thought the way the calculation was laid out was interesting and was curious if anyone here cared to poke holes in it:

https://www.quora.com/If-all-cars-i...ectricity-do-we-need-to-produce-in-percentage

And yes, the poster is an engineer at an oil company But that doesn't mean he's wrong.

 

[Fellsteruk]

Even an EV powered on electricity that comes from 100% coal “trump clean coal or not” is still better for the environment that a car powered on fossil fuel.

I talking from the point of factoring in the co2 to mine, refine and transport said gas then burn it, alll that an coal still comes out better

 

[YYZ-IAD]

Two bit davinci does a brilliant set of videos on this. Please review their work - rather than me paraphrasing - but bottom line is that EVs efficiently use most of the energy provided to them - while ICEs waste most in heat. Even if electricity is generated from coal, EVs are still better

Two Bit da Vinci

 

[bcdavis75]

Even an EV powered on electricity that comes from 100% coal “trump clean coal or not” is still better for the environment that a car powered on fossil fuel.

I talking from the point of factoring in the co2 to mine, refine and transport said gas then burn it, alll that an coal still comes out better

He's not arguing that it isn't better. He's arguing that the math doesn't work in it's favor if you main goal was to reduce C02.

 

[bcdavis75]

Two bit davinci does a brilliant set of videos on this. Please review their work - rather than me paraphrasing - but bottom line is that EVs efficiently use most of the energy provided to them - while ICEs waste most in heat. Even if electricity is generated from coal, EVs are still better

Two Bit da Vinci

Cool. I'll take a look at this.

In terms of efficientcy, he's contemplating that in his calculation.

 

[EinSV]

The quora post cited in the OP is from 2014 and is out of date (and probably was wrong at the time).

The Union of Concerned Scientists has done a life cycle analysis that shows EVs are much cleaner everywhere in the U.S. than conventional gas cars and that efficient EVs like the Model 3 are far cleaner -- for example a 25 MPG gas car has about 3X the GHG emissions as an efficient EV like the Model 3 nationally and 6X in California.

The UCS data (state by state map below for efficient EVs) drastically understates the advantage of EVs for three reasons:

(1) The report is based on 2016 data and the grid gets cleaner every year.
(2) New EVs put on the road today will continue to get cleaner over their lifetime as the grid continues to get cleaner.
(3) Many EV owners can install rooftop solar or in some areas (like mine) can opt for 100% renewable electricity from their local utility.

The quora post also cites flawed data on the relative costs of EVs v. ICE. The average car in the U.S. is not $25,000 it is $36,000. Average New-Car Prices Rise Nearly 4 Percent For January 2018 On Shifting Sales Mix, According To Kelley Blue Book

Fuel savings average about $1,000 per year, which over 150,000-200,000 miles can equal $10K or more (a Tesla will probably last longer than an ICE car too, but that's gilding the lily). They also require less maintenance, don't require brake pad replacement, oil changes or smog checks.

For the least expensive cars, EVs are not yet at cost parity, but that's coming soon as battery costs are rapidly declining.

New Data Show Electric Vehicles Continue to Get Cleaner

 

[YYZ-IAD]

yes - a great chart that I've used in my Univ class. Upstate NY - where i spend a lot of time - has one of the better numbers. Niagara Falls is more than a tourist attraction. Produces lots of clean energy.

 

[bcdavis75]

The quora post cited in the OP is from 2014 and is out of date (and probably was wrong at the time).

The Union of Concerned Scientists has done a life cycle analysis that shows EVs are much cleaner everywhere in the U.S. than conventional gas cars and that efficient EVs like the Model 3 are far cleaner -- for example a 25 MPG gas car has about 3X the GHG emissions as an efficient EV like the Model 3 nationally and 6X in California.

The UCS data (state by state map below for efficient EVs) drastically understates the advantage of EVs for three reasons:

(1) The report is based on 2016 data and the grid gets cleaner every year.
(2) New EVs put on the road today will continue to get cleaner over their lifetime as the grid continues to get cleaner.
(3) Many EV owners can install rooftop solar or in some areas (like mine) can opt for 100% renewable electricity from their local utility.

The quora post also cites flawed data on the relative costs of EVs v. ICE. The average car in the U.S. is not $25,000 it is $36,000. Average New-Car Prices Rise Nearly 4 Percent For January 2018 On Shifting Sales Mix, According To Kelley Blue Book

Fuel savings average about $1,000 per year, which over 150,000-200,000 miles can equal $10K or more (a Tesla will probably last longer than an ICE car too, but that's gilding the lily). They also require less maintenance, don't require brake pad replacement, oil changes or smog checks.

For the least expensive cars, EVs are not yet at cost parity, but that's coming soon as battery costs are rapidly declining.

New Data Show Electric Vehicles Continue to Get Cleaner

View attachment 365545

Very interesting article. Thanks for posting.

 

[jaguar36]

EVs are not a magic bullet. They are part of the overall solution. An EV can produce 0 emissions if the electricity comes from Solar, an ICE is always going to produce CO2.

If you want a good response to anyone trying to make this ridiculous argument, just buy some solar panels and point out that your EV is powered purely by the sun.

 

[Saghost]

My old man forwarded me the below Quora post--he is constantly debating me on the merits of electric cars.The post has a pretty narrow premise which relates specifically to the cost effectiveness of Electric cars a medium for reducing CO2. The conclusion: electric vehicles are a pretty crummy way to reduce CO2 emissions, given the current US power mix.

None of this effects my love of the car. But thought the way the calculation was laid out was interesting and was curious if anyone here cared to poke holes in it:

https://www.quora.com/If-all-cars-i...ectricity-do-we-need-to-produce-in-percentage

And yes, the poster is an engineer at an oil company But that doesn't mean he's wrong.

Most of the analysis looks solid. I don't like the 6.5% number, because it's a switch - everything above that is about cars, but that's the entire U.S. economy, where all transportation (not just cars) is barely a quarter.

Using the gasoline usage numbers he cited above, the 417 million tons saved is a 35% savings on the 1.19 billion tons that would otherwise be burned in cars.

In an ideal world, we'd be making improvements in all sectors, but EVs make a big difference and don't require lifestyle changes like some other things.

 

[bcdavis75]

If you want a good response to anyone trying to make this ridiculous argument, just buy some solar panels and point out that your EV is powered purely by the sun.

His argument isn't ridiculous. It's very well thought out. Read the comments on the article as well, he thoughtfully engages with several other folks on the analysis. Remember, the thesis is that we shouldn't buy electric cars or that they aren't marginally better for the environment. It's that they're not nearly the improvement that is often touted by people like... well, me! Moreover, there are much more cost effective way to achieve that goal.

I'm still not concluding that he's right or wrong.. that's what I'm trying to get you all to do becasue I'm lazy.

 

[Zythryn]

His argument isn't ridiculous. It's very well thought out. Read the comments on the article as well, he thoughtfully engages with several other folks on the analysis. Remember, the thesis is that we shouldn't buy electric cars or that they aren't marginally better for the environment. It's that they're not nearly the improvement that is often touted by people like... well, me! Moreover, there are much more cost effective way to achieve that goal.

I'm still not concluding that he's right or wrong.. that's what I'm trying to get you all to do becasue I'm lazy.

You have been pointed to the UCS pieces on this, they are very comprehensive.
EVs are as clean as the driver wants them to be. If that is a goal of yours, great.
If a clean EV isn’t someone’s goal, they are still an improvement over ICE vehicles.

As for other less expensive ways to lower CO2 emissions, name one other way where CO2 emissions are lowered as a byproduct of buying a car because it performs better, is more convenient, and a lot of fun?

 

[YYZ-IAD]

EVs are not a magic bullet. They are part of the overall solution. An EV can produce 0 emissions if the electricity comes from Solar, an ICE is always going to produce CO2.

If you want a good response to anyone trying to make this ridiculous argument, just buy some solar panels and point out that your EV is powered purely by the sun.

Unfortunately, argument won't end there. You will hear about all the energy and environmental degradation it takes to manufacturer batteries. My favorite youtube guys "two bit da vinci" do a good job analyzing and refuting that as well.

 

[Singuy]

EVs give people options to either be dirty or be cleaner. I can choose to use the grid or produce energy myself with solar. Saying that EVs are dirty is just cherry picking circumstances(ie. a county powered by coal, in conjunction with buying the heaviest and hardest EV ever produced).

"I'm going to drill my own oil and refine it myself to reduce CO2 emission from transportation" said by no ICE owner ever.