I do not have your data, but there is enough variability based on temperature, and the way SoC is reported (presumably by the car?) to question whether these data really disprove anything.
Incidentally, the fact that
your battery maintained a higher charge rate longer, 20kW all the way to 98% is not inconsistent with it having higher capacity: the reported 98% rate might be actually 89% if the software reports battery capacity based on "official" 85kWh, while the actual capacity is 10% higher.
Once again, I am perfectly fine if it turns out that this theory turns out to be not true - I certainly witnessed good and thoughtful analysts being wrong before - but so far none of the arguments I saw in this thread kill it for me.
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I am not sure how much you know about this analyst and company he represents, but I've been following him very closely for a while. He is specializing on covering the company for some time and proven to be very knowledgeable, thoughtful and pretty diligent in his research, he certainly "gets" Tesla. It is very plausible that he can draw his conclusions based on what he saw during the factory visit, without TM telling him anything directly.
There is no question what battery advancements he is referring to - just
watch the interview. Not only he refers to Model S battery, he is specifically talking about what in his opinion will be released on Thursday