Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

[Az_Rael]

they should also free up the 'eap' stuff and just give that to all the current AP owners.

eap has some usable stuff; pity that they killed that middle level. its actually the sweet spot for where 'ap' offers the best value.

If they did that, there wouldn't be anything left in the $7000 FSD package. All those features are currently EAP features.

I do think they should bring back EAP. $5000 was a better price point for all those features IMHO.

 

[pilotSteve]

Rerecorded earlier this month, so in 2020, so next year is 2021.
Sofiaan Fraval on Twitter

YIKES! So those of us that paid $3k for "FSD" in 2016 have to wait four.... maybe five YEARS to realize that value? Come on..... I expected one or TWO years of waiting, not FIVE!!!! WTF Elon?

 

[boonedocks]

they should also free up the 'eap' stuff and just give that to all the current AP owners.

eap has some usable stuff; pity that they killed that middle level. its actually the sweet spot for where 'ap' offers the best value.

As a two time EAP owner and a new"ish" HW3 Raven S buyer, the only way Tesla was going to have a chance in hell of getting $7,000 out of buyers for FSD was to neuter AP and make even basic EAP features part of FSD. I agree with you BTW...I would not have paid for FSD a 3rd time around with Tesla's history since late 2016 AP2.0 promises and on......

 

[DigAdrenaline]

Which they can do that with FSD owners after EAP and FSD were combined. It's hard to do that for EAP owners since they already have Summon, Smart Park, NoA, Auto lane changes, etc. Now these people hear that it's likely going to be another year before any true FSD features (that are outside of EAP) are going to happen?

Ouch.

It's time to open up the refund bank before the lawyers start smelling blood.

I'd take an MCU2/HW3 upgrade. It doesn't need to be today, just say I'm scheduled for Feb 14 2021. It's a long time, but at least then I know.

 

[daniel]

guys, a 're-write' is a GOOD THING.

sometimes, old technical debt is better left behind.

its not often that you get a chance to say 'well, this was a good learning experience. now, lets write the real code.'

this will delay things (I bet its been in the works a while, now) - but I'm quite encouraged by the fact that mgmt is ok'ing a "re-write" of some key systems.

I agree. Tesla, to its credit, would rather miss a promised deadline than release something that is not safe.

Let me ask a simple question: did Elon / Tesla lie? Did they sell something that does not exist? Even promise it would exist by a certain time, and yet it still does not exist?

Whether or not it was a "lie" depends on whether or not they believed what they said. But they did promise something that did not yet exist, and were open about that fact. They never explicitly promised a date for Level 5 autonomy, but they did promise it for the cars it was sold on, which implies some time before the end of those cars' expected lifetime.

Later, Elon promised a lesser version (not L5 autonomy, but L2 City NoA) by the end of 2019, which promise he was unable to fulfill.

YIKES! So those of us that paid $3k for "FSD" in 2016 have to wait four.... maybe five YEARS to realize that value? Come on..... I expected one or TWO years of waiting, not FIVE!!!! WTF Elon?

I expected ten years, and the need for more sensors, so I didn't buy FSD because I figured it would be time for a new car then. I feel for people who paid their money expecting it would be a couple of years, but given the state of the technology, that really seemed to me like an unrealistic expectation. Going from L2 autosteer and TACC to Level 5 autonomy in two or three years would have been like going from unmanned satellites to the moon landing without the intervening Mercury or Apollo missions.

 

[Altes]

He's at it again, this time on the ARK podcast: On the Road to Full Autonomy With Elon Musk — FYI Podcast

"I think we will be feature complete FSD this year, meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination this year. I would say I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark."

He did then caveat that it would not 'work perfectly' and require observation. Even then - that would be an incredible accomplishment given where Tesla AP is today. They're either sitting on some incredible progress with HW3 or he is way off the mark - again.

FSD is Like a Third marriage...."A Triumph of hope over experience"

 

[electracity]

they should also free up the 'eap' stuff and just give that to all the current AP owners.

eap has some usable stuff; pity that they killed that middle level. its actually the sweet spot for where 'ap' offers the best value.

Tesla needs to do the opposite: Add features to FSD only. That way, when HW4 comes out, far fewer people with <HW4 will ask for refunds. Tesla has a reasonable path to get out of this mess with only moderate damage, but only by making FSD useful to purchasers.

FSD needs to be really useful on the daily long commute. It doesn't need to actually reach autonomy. Tesla need to be the car tech leader. They don't need to reach actual autonomy unless someone else gets there first.

 

[pilotSteve]

Probably the only way to recoup a FSD purchase may be to trade in for a newTesla and require the FSD to “transfer” at no charge? ... if/when one was ready to buy new....

 

[S100D]

Did Elon/Tesla Lie -> absolutely, and basically throughout the entire life of FSD so far. Where they've used the strategy of reducing the extent of the lie at each juncture.
Did they sell something that does not exist -> Yes.
What point do regulators step in -> In the US we have very loose regulation for this kind of thing. In other countries I expect to see FSD refunded soon. Countries like Germany for example. Which reminds me that I need to look up when the clock strikes on that one.

Outside of AP 2.0 people I don't think a lot of FSD owners are really demanding a refund.

I, unfortunately traded in a S85D for a AP2/MCU1 Model S. I lost a lot more than $3,000 on the trade-in. Tesla needs to make FSD work on my car.

Yes, I knew I was going to lose a lot of money on the trade-in.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

they should also free up the 'eap' stuff and just give that to all the current AP owners.

eap has some usable stuff; pity that they killed that middle level. its actually the sweet spot for where 'ap' offers the best value.

The problem with this direction is the current rev of EAP stuff isn't any good. It's likely going to require the rework, and HW3 for the existing EAP to work well. Things like Smart Summon or Smart park (which hasn't been released yet, but falls under EAP).

They can't give EAP to AP owners as lots of them have HW2.5 computers.

I believe they got rid of EAP because they knew it was never going to work well with HW2/HW2.5.

Getting rid of EAP was one of the better things they did.

Now that isn't to say they don't need to AP better handling of lane changes for basic AP owners.

 

[Dutchie]

You bought a $100K+ car based on a $3K option that didn't come with any promise date of delivering on something that not a single company in the world had achieved?

I hope you work in the film industry because that's one mighty fantasy.

As far as I'm concerned Tesla giving you a $3K refund for FSD only is the appropriate course of action. Maybe a signed apology from Elon Musk for taking advantage of you.

A refund might only be acceptable if the whole FSD project fails and Tesla can prove that they tried everything to make it work but it is too complicated.
If they start shipping cars that can do FSD but Tesla refuses to upgrade my car due to costs, then that will be unacceptable.

 

[vinnie97]

I have no idea how screwed I should feel anymore with all the ensuing decoupling and price adjustments that have taken place since I gleefully bent over almost 2 years ago. I paid $5k for EAP and $3k for FSD in March 2018. I suppose this puts me somewhere in the middle of the screwed pack. I guess the next step is to get HW3 and see what firmware they introduce for it by 2021.

 

[daniel]

A refund might only be acceptable if the whole FSD project fails and Tesla can prove that they tried everything to make it work but it is too complicated.
If they start shipping cars that can do FSD but Tesla refuses to upgrade my car due to costs, then that will be unacceptable.

I expect that when they finally achieve full Level 5 autonomy it will be in a car with more sensors and a computer that's a good five years beyond HW3. It will simply not be possible to upgrade cars like mine and yours. (I don't have FSD but Tesla will still sell it to me if I wanted.) How Tesla finally deals with the admission that it sold FSD on cars that cannot be upgraded is anyone's guess. Refund the $3,000? Offer an even-up trade of your car for a new one that really is fully autonomous? The former seems like way too little and the latter, given how many people have paid for FSD, is probably impossible. Maybe a really big discount on a new car, which won't help anyone who is not in a position to buy a new car.

And if Tesla is not the first to sell an autonomous car, people who paid for FSD are going to be even more upset.

Lesson for entrepreneurs, in the words of the old song: Don't make no promises you can't keep. Or, don't sell something you don't have.

 

[willow_hiller]

I have no idea how screwed I should feel anymore with all the ensuing decoupling and price adjustments that have taken place since I gleefully bent over almost 2 years ago. I paid $5k for EAP and $3k for FSD in March 2018. I suppose this puts me somewhere in the middle of the screwed pack. I guess the next step is to get HW3 and see what firmware they introduce for it by 2021.

Yep, just about the middle of the pack. I think the highest combined price anyone has ever paid is about $13,000. Lowest combined was $5,000. If I were to spring for it now, my combined price would be $10,000...

 

[diplomat33]

CleanTechnica feels that the rewrite of FSD is a good thing but will set FSD back a year:

"My take: Unlike the conclusion drawn in this article, this is a major delay to the Full Self Driving program. This means the demo we saw at Autonomy Day last year was judged to be not good enough to put into production and they had to go back to the drawing board. As we learned from listening to Andrej Karpathy talk about the tradeoffs between combining things and keeping them independent, putting 3 functions together will make if more efficient, but that will have 2 other effects. The interfaces to all the other parts of the system need to at a minimum be retested and maybe redesigned. Also, the ability to just quickly hand code around a small known issue in planning, perception, and image recognition is removed. Instead, you have to train the neural network around each known issue. I think this is a good change, but it probably sets the system back close to a year."
Timestamped Guide To Part 2 Of Elon Musk Interview By Third Row Tesla | CleanTechnica

I think CleanTechnica makes some good points. In the short term, I feel like we will probably see some delays but in the long term, the rewrite will probably make FSD a lot better.

 

[vinnie97]

Yep, just about the middle of the pack. I think the highest combined price anyone has ever paid is about $13,000. Lowest combined was $5,000. If I were to spring for it now, my combined price would be $10,000...

View attachment 506518

Thanks, on the rawer end of the deal to be fair.

 

[diplomat33]

Not sure what this means but Elon tweeted this:

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[powertoold]

Elon pulled his Trump card Lan party for FSD

 

[diplomat33]

The major rewrite of FSD and the push to hire new talent are good signs that Elon is putting more focus on FSD.

 

[jimmym1981]

To be honest, this tweet is super awesome to see, but it doesn’t mean anything for the future of FSD. I feel he is pumping it up for the Y ordered. Just dropped ours and picked up the Performance package for 2k more than original reservation. Only time will tell...