Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[diplomat33]

So what's you're bet? Starting the books at $1 ;-)

Maybe 11.5 for production version.

 

[jebinc]

Elon says they will raise price as they get closer to production release. I wonder if 11 will be the production release? It will have the single stack and some big rewrites so I could see it being the production release.

And it will be like Smart Summon; a parlor trick that remains saddled with a “beta” tag for years…. But, Tesla can imeadiaty recognize all of the deferred FSD revenue!

@WilliamG

 

[Terminator857]

If this happens we will all are likely to lose it do to NHTSA regulations after all the accidents and irresponsible YouTube videos start poring in. We are playing with fire as it is.

That is a good way to think about it. If people are paranoid then that won't happen. If people think it works great, then people will try to defeat the monitoring devices. Have you thought about how many lives it will save?

 

[boonedocks]

I love Tesla and think very highly of Elon BUT this reeks of Elon’s tactics of “FOMO” and people running out to buy it before the increase just in case.

I have fallen for this twice in the past for FSD and am sticking with the subscription model on my 4th Model S 2021 Refresh.

Maybe our 2017 Model X w/FSD won’t be in the junkyard before something even 1/2 way exciting happens with FSD.

 

[diplomat33]

What is meant by production release? Removal of the word beta? No more safety score barrier? That is rather arbitrary. Elon can do that now if he wants.

I interpret production release to be the version that is released publicly to anyone who buys FSD on the website. It will be the version when the "autosteer on city streets" feature is no longer listed as "coming later" but people who paid for FSD get. Of course, this does not mean it won't be beta anymore. I think there are still public features that are still listed as beta. That's why I say that the production release won't be some finished L4 or L5. It will just be whatever Elon deems good enough to let everyone have. So when FSD Beta reaches some standard of "good enough" in Elon's mind, it will be the production release. Chances are that the production release will still require driver supervision and will even still be labeled "beta".

 

[planetary]

I interpret production release to be the version that is released publicly to anyone who buys FSD on the website. It will be the version when the "autosteer on city streets" feature is no longer listed as "coming later" but people who paid for FSD get. Of course, this does not mean it won't be beta anymore. I think there are still public features that are still listed as beta.

I agree with this interpretation.

 

[diplomat33]

I love Tesla and think very highly of Elon BUT this reeks of Elon’s tactics of “FOMO” and people running out to buy it before the increase just in case.

That's exactly what it is.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I love Tesla and think very highly of Elon BUT this reeks of Elon’s tactics of “FOMO” and people running out to buy it before the increase just in case.

I have fallen for this twice in the past for FSD and am sticking with the subscription model on my 4th Model S 2021 Refresh.

Maybe our 2017 Model X w/FSD won’t be in the junkyard before something even 1/2 way exciting happens with FSD.

What I find really messed up is the Subscription pricing won't raise in price until FSD goes to wide release.

Yet, FSD will go up to $12K on the 17th of this month.

Now I'm not sure how effective the whole FOMO is at this point. I don't dispute that its an attempt at that, but I simply can't see a significant number of people falling for it.

Mostly it will be seen as negative as the current $10K doesn't buy a person much.

 

[jebinc]

What I find really messed up is the Subscription pricing won't raise in price until FSD goes to wide release.

Yet, FSD will go up to $12K on the 17th of this month.

Now I'm not sure how effective the whole FOMO is at this point. I don't dispute that its an attempt at that, but I simply can't see a significant number of people falling for it.

Mostly it will be seen as negative as the current $10K doesn't buy a person much.

Many have in the past; each and every time there was a price increase line in the sand. Even if it was quick sand….

 

[Daniel in SD]

Elon says they will raise price as they get closer to production release. I wonder if 11 will be the production release? It will have the single stack and some big rewrites so I could see it being the production release.

No, I think he's talking about robotaxi capability which probably won't be until later this year.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Many have in the past; each and every time there was a price increase line in the sand. Even if it was quick sand….

True, but the reality is a lot different now.

FSD Subscription tempers the impulse to buy
The abundance of FSD Videos do a pretty good job tempering expectations
Lastly there is only so many times you can cry wolf.

 

[RED MDL3]

So… I’m selling my 2018 Model 3 with FSD replaced by new Model S. My value for paying for FSD? Nada. Disappointed it wouldn’t transfer while still Beta

 

[jebinc]

True, but the reality is a lot different now.

FSD Subscription tempers the impulse to buy
The abundance of FSD Videos do a pretty good job tempering expectations
Lastly there is only so many times you can cry wolf.

Watch how many still jump, when Elon says (as he did today) that v11 will be epic, with single stack, etc. “just in time hype” prior to price increase.

 

[israndy]

You can say he is miles off with his Full Self Driving, but if he is correct, and he is years ahead of everyone else with Dojo and everything, when it is allowed by regulators the price will go thru the ceiling and by slowly raising it over time he is giving people the opportunity to buy before this all happens. Reasonable.

 

[jebinc]

You can say he is miles off with his Full Self Driving, but if he is correct, and he is years ahead of everyone else with Dojo and everything, when it is allowed by regulators the price will go thru the ceiling and by slowly raising it over time he is giving people the opportunity to buy before this all happens. Reasonable.

Since you can take FSD with you, most people won’t still have the car they put FSD on, when this all comes to pass…. So, money out the window, unless you feel you’re getting that value for the features available at the time of purchase.

 

[JulienW]

..... Have you thought about how many lives it will save?

Unfortunately no one gives a rats a$$ (other than those effected) about the 100 people killed every day in the US by human drivers. That is just business as usual and 100% excepted and normal.

We are talking about OBTUSE public perception and NOT saving lives logic. When people die in a FSD Beta crash it will be complete and total news headline coverage with every detail speculated on and "experts" denoting our lax regulations that led to killer self driving cars let loose and rooming our streets. This is just human nature and fear will rule.

Remember the pedestrian killed by the Uber test car that was in all the news cycles? Bet you heard all the details and 1000s of speculations as to how and why. Sad and tragic BUT how many of the 5,000 pedestrians killed by human drivers since then do you remember or know details about? Are they not sad and tragic incidents too? NO ONE CARES. Uber ended up closing down their self driving testing in large part because of this. So how many lives is that saving?

Hope I'm wrong but but when an accident with headlines like "Tesla's self driving cars are killing people" is playing on repeat news saying FSD is actually saving lives is going to fall on deaf ears.

 

[aronth5]

At this time most of my optimism for privately owned autonomous vehicles has flatlined. It's just Tesla or the industry, but its the whole approach seems completely wrong. I'm more optimistic about fleet companies.

No, I think he's talking about robotaxi capability which probably won't be until later this year.

How are you defining "robotaxi", and how will it practically be used? I think once people really get into the detail on how to operationalize robotaxi it will get pushed back a lot longer than later this year

 

[Bladerskb]

You can say he is miles off with his Full Self Driving, but if he is correct, and he is years ahead of everyone else with Dojo and everything, when it is allowed by regulators the price will go thru the ceiling and by slowly raising it over time he is giving people the opportunity to buy before this all happens. Reasonable.

He’s ahead by creating a poor mans TPU competitor 7 years after the TPU with inferior specs of which won’t even be in use internally by Tesla till 2023 or later.

Got it!

 

[nvx1977]

How are you defining "robotaxi", and how will it practically be used? I think once people really get into the detail on how to operationalize robotaxi it will get pushed back a lot longer than later this year

Something that's rarely talked about.... If the day comes that robotaxis don't even require a safety driver, the car doors need a way to shut themselves. Passengers will inevitably leave a door open after stepping out. Currently only the Model X has this feature. Can this be retrofitted into S/3/Y? If not, if we see this feature appear in these models, we might be close to robotaxis.

 

[AndreP]

You can say he is miles off with his Full Self Driving, but if he is correct, and he is years ahead of everyone else with Dojo and everything, when it is allowed by regulators the price will go thru the ceiling and by slowly raising it over time he is giving people the opportunity to buy before this all happens. Reasonable.

Even if Tesla magically materialized full autonomy, other people/companies will be right behind

There's a guy named George Hotz who runs a company called comma.ai selling a device for $1k that apparently will give Autopilot-equivalent functionality to a range of compatible vehicles. He appears to have the exact same philosophy as Elon and recently stated that his small company would be 1-2 years behind Tesla whenever they achieve full autonomy. If he thinks his company will be that close, imagine the big boys.

Roads of the future will be a hodgepodge of vehicles from all manufacturers running a slew of autonomous systems