Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[Sigma4Life]

You have provided zero evidence to backup your claim. I have provided evidence that experts thought it was possible and that a sub-orbital prototype was built, flown and reused multiple times.
If Tesla achieves FSD with the current hardware I will be the first to say that they did what every expert in the field thought was impossible.

My evidence is that no one successfully built reusable orbital rockets before Space X. The same fate will likely fall on FSD. Whoever creates it first will likely enjoy a long while alone at the top before another company joins them.

 

[2101Guy]

Have you considered it’s a ginuinely hard problem that’s easy to underestimate? Look at the evidence. No company in the world has achieved general FSD so maybe.. just maybe… it’s VERY hard and the estimates were simply too optimistic.

hard for me to believe the Elon CONSISTENTLY underestimates FSD dates unintentionally. I mean, LOTS of problems are hard to solve, but yet, the same guy was the first in the world to EVER land boosters on a dime consistently now.

So for me, no, not believing that he accidentally gives FSD related dates that are consistently not achievable. Not with his IQ and his track record at spacex.
My opinion is that He knows.. (for example) current cameras/hardware (not to mention any software within the next 4-5 years) can NOT do Robotaxi, NYC to LA with ZERO human input, Level 5 etc. He 100% KNOWS it.

 

[2101Guy]

I mean..some of us need to wake up..he LITERALLY stated that Tesla's would have the capability to leave your house ON ITS OWN doing uber like service, pick up passengers, drop them off, and return home. All on its own...by end of 2020.

And we BELIEVED IT. LOL

 

[Knightshade]

hard for me to believe the Elon CONSISTENTLY underestimates FSD dates unintentionally.

Why?

He explained this to people years ago and people keep being shocked by it.

People should not ascribe to malice that which can easily be explained by stupidity." (LAUGHTER) So-- so it's, like, just because I'm, like, dumb at-- at predicting dates does not mean I am untruthful. I don't know-- I-- we've-- I never made a mass-produced car. How am I supposed to know with precision when it's gonna get done?

Replace the words in the second to last sentence after "I never made...." with anything else he's also never done yet and the idea remains the same.

 

[Sigma4Life]

hard for me to believe the Elon CONSISTENTLY underestimates FSD dates unintentionally. I mean, LOTS of problems are hard to solve, but yet, the same guy was the first in the world to EVER land boosters on a dime consistently now.

So for me, no, not believing that he accidentally gives FSD related dates that are consistently not achievable. Not with his IQ and his track record at spacex.
My opinion is that He knows.. (for example) current cameras/hardware (not to mention any software within the next 4-5 years) can NOT do Robotaxi, NYC to LA with ZERO human input, Level 5 etc. He 100% KNOWS it.

I sort of agree. I think he realizes the full rototaxi version of FSD may not be possible with the current hardware, however that doesn't mean Tesla can't get FSD to a reliable enough state to where it can be released out of beta. Since so many cars have already shipped with this version of hardware Tesla is in a position where they have to believe they can get it to work on the current hardware, especially if v4.0 of the hardware is incompatible with existing cars.

 

[2101Guy]

I sort of agree. I think he realizes the full rototaxi version of FSD may not be possible with the current hardware, however that doesn't mean Tesla can't get FSD to a reliable enough state to where it can be released out of beta. Since so many cars have already shipped with this version of hardware Tesla is in a position where they have to believe they can get it to work on the current hardware, especially if v4.0 of the hardware is incompatible with existing cars.

DOnt disagree. However, do I think Teslas FSD will reach level 5 or even level 4 abilities within say, the next 4 years?
No.

Which reminds me...werent current FSD cars promised to be able to drop you off at a restaurant door, then go park itself autonomously by end of last year?

 

[Terminator857]

Sure, you could have no regulations as long as there’s a safety driver in the vehicle monitoring the system.
I don’t agree, I think AV testing needs regulations. At the very least enough oversight to determine how safe it is.

Pros and Cons of regulation?
Pros: Safer
Cons:

1. Does it increase the barrier to participation?
2. Does it lower participation? In other words would Tesla disable L2+ in California.
3. Does it slow down innovation? If Tesla doesn't participate in California is this inhibiting innovation?
4. Does it make the streets less safe? Is L2+ safer than raising the barrier to entry with regulations?

I think regulations can strike a balance between these concerns. Perhaps working with Tesla to see what they can agree to, would be ideal. For example if Tesla would agree to automatic data collection and reporting, then Tesla shouldn't have many qualms with regulation.

 

[Yelobird]

DOnt disagree. However, do I think Teslas FSD will reach level 5 or even level 4 abilities within say, the next 4 years?
No.

Which reminds me...werent current FSD cars promised to be able to drop you off at a restaurant door, then go park itself autonomously by end of last year?

I keep seeing this word “promised“? Can someone please show me a single tweet or other from Elon that’s says “I promise XXX feature by this date”. Yes he makes some grand speculations but I don’t recall any I Promise statement. Many like to regurgitate past goals as broken Promises but in general they are just goals to stop the continuous badgering of questions demanding an exact date.

 

[Knightshade]

Which reminds me...werent current FSD cars promised to be able to drop you off at a restaurant door, then go park itself autonomously by end of last year?

What do you mean by "current"?

FSD since March 2019 has been sold as an L2 driver assist system, explicitly, during purchase.

 

[aronth5]

Since this thread is about Elon's FSD beta tweets it sure would be nice to see Elon tweet on the status of 10.9 and what is happening. This is the first time he has gone silent on this topic in awhile. I wonder if the 4th quarter financial release scheduled for tomorrow has any bearing on this? Probably not but one never knows.

 

[Sigma4Life]

Since this thread is about Elon's FSD beta tweets it sure would be nice to see Elon tweet on the status of 10.9 and what is happening. This is the first time he has gone silent on this topic in awhile. I wonder if the 4th quarter financial release scheduled for tomorrow has any bearing on this? Probably not but one never knows.

Actually I think the earnings call tomorrow has everything with him being silent on the FSD topic. I suspect an update at minimum and maybe an update regarding beta participation.

 

[Battouttahe77]

If we could keep this thread on topic, that would be great.

 

[JulienW]

If we could keep this thread on topic, that would be great.

OK. Guess he will try and go through the drive through on Beta.

 

[Dan D.]

I keep seeing this word “promised“? Can someone please show me a single tweet or other from Elon that’s says “I promise XXX feature by this date”. Yes he makes some grand speculations but I don’t recall any I Promise statement. Many like to regurgitate past goals as broken Promises but in general they are just goals to stop the continuous badgering of questions demanding an exact date.

What are we, children? Because the CEO of a company didn't say "I promise" then his public statements don't count? Maybe he crossed his fingers too, it's not a lie when you do that.

His statements should mean something, if not then they should come with a legal disclaimer.

 

[Daniel in SD]

What are we, children? Because the CEO of a company didn't say "I promise" then his public statements don't count? Maybe he crossed his fingers too, it's not a lie when you do that.

His statements should mean something, if not then they should come with a legal disclaimer.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453418189862342660

Maybe FSD can be solved by using blockchain technology?

 

[Yelobird]

What are we, children? Because the CEO of a company didn't say "I promise" then his public statements don't count? Maybe he crossed his fingers too, it's not a lie when you do that.

His statements should mean something, if not then they should come with a legal disclaimer.

Then why do we keep saying “he promised”? We continuously ask what they are working on and they tell us. How that becomes a broken promise or lie Would be how my children would react.

 

[Dan D.]

Then why do we keep saying “he promised”? We continuously ask what they are working on and they tell us. How that becomes a broken promise or lie Would be how my children would react.

why do we keep saying “he promised”?
Because we are used to expecting people who say things to mean what they say. Public statements are "promises", at least we're supposed to take them that way. Just because people lie a lot doesn't mean we should cynically assume every statement is a lie. All we can do is take statements at face value. If someone uses the word "definitely", that is a promise, it will be taken that way by customers and those who value the stock price.

This statement was taken as a promise

https://twitter.com/x/status/1457066048944066565

These are apparently promises

Why he's not held to task more for his "definite" statements that fail to be in any way realistic, is the real issue.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I am really curious what all this whining is about on FSD beta? I am totally loving it. I say "Take me to the dog park" and except for parking it does all the work. This is what I dreamed of when I paid for FSD and I am living the dream TODAY.

Oh, boo hoo, you have to hold the steering wheel and you can't jump in the back and take a cat nap. Is ANYONE else close to offering you this and you got ripped off by Elon for saying he could deliver? It's officially never been done in the history of history.

Y'all need a hobby that isn't bitching on the interwebs. Perhaps help out, go put some more miles on your beta and send in some reports.

I don't feel like I was ripped off by Elon, but I do believe he knowingly misled customers on both EAP timeframes and FSD potential. The reason I don't feel ripped off is I saw right through the ridiculous promises of robotaxi's and "your car will appreciate in value", and instead I saw the potential for something that no one else was offering.

I think some Pro-Elon people are so willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that they won't make him take responsibility for misleading people on the capabilities of FSD. This is why conversations on TMC are so much more favorable to Elon than basically any other non-Tesla forum. There also seems to be a lot of stock owners who are totally biased towards Elon, and I can't blame them. How can someone who owns thousands of shares of stock be impartial?

As to the holding the steering wheel? It's not just holding the steering wheel, but taking responsibility for the entirely of the drive and being more engaged in that moment due to the risk that its harder to let it drive than to just drive.

It takes actual work to test FSD Beta, and yet Tesla doesn't value this work. No human being ever acknowledges the reports or ask question.

The entire point of autonomous driving is it HAS TO WORK.

It can't be like NoA where it works some of the time.
It can't be like Auto lane change where it works most of the time.
It can't be like Smart summon where you have to watch over it like a hawk
It can't be like AutoPark where its too slow to use.

Instead it has to work 99.99+% of the time in a way that doesn't cause traffic around you to be hostile to you.

As to miles?

Last weekend I drove to the Oregon Coast and back, and while TACC/AP wasn't terrible it wasn't all that great either.
The parts where FSD Beta drove were pretty horrible.

I also tried it in some mild fog at night, and boy did it hate that. I got numerous take over immediately with both hands on the steering wheel indicator.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

why do we keep saying “he promised”?
Because we are used to expecting people who say things to mean what they say. Public statements are "promises", at least we're supposed to take them that way. Just because people lie a lot doesn't mean we should cynically assume every statement is a lie. All we can do is take statements at face value. If someone uses the word "definitely", that is a promise, it will be taken that way by customers and those who value the stock price.

This statement was taken as a promise

https://twitter.com/x/status/1457066048944066565

These are apparently promises

Why he's not held to task more for his "definite" statements that fail to be in any way realistic, is the real issue.

The "I will abide by the results" tweet is a tough one to interpret.

One interpretation is that it's a lie because knew he had to tell the shares per the structure of his agreement with the Tesla board.

One interpretation is its entertainment that's not meant to be taken seriously -> This was my interpretation.

One interpretation is its a promise.

Awhile back I thought about having a Tweet Score for Elon where I simply marked each tweet with a belief score.

I would have scored this one a zero because to me its not a "I'm actually be honest" moment.

Awhile back Tesla had a Snarky Twitter person who I had high hopes for. The reason for this is I was hoping the Tesla twitter account itself would take a stronger role in announcements, and in addressing peoples questions/concerns. But, that never seemed to take off.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I don’t think they would have structured M3 leases with no buyout option if they weren’t bullish on robo taxis.

I'm not so sure about this.

Did that actually cost them any more or did it simply give them more control?

They wield a lot of control with used vehicles as they can delete SW added features like FSD, and Performance Boost.

To me it makes sense to have lease returns without buyout so you can get those people into a new Tesla, and make money off the old one.