Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[S4WRXTTCS]

Third, space launches are in fact more tightly regulated than anything Tesla faces (at the moment) with FSD. There are numerous government agencies involved before you can get even close to a launch pad (NASA, FAA, military, my Aunt Betty etc.). The strategy here, I am sure, is to present the various agencies with a fait accompli before they even figure out what regulations to put into place.

The thing about those regulations is they provide a rule book despite Elon saying they were archaic.

In this country with autonomous driving the rules are still being figured. We have no nationwide standard, and instead its left up to the states. That would be fine if they could come together, and agree on some ground rules.

The only company I know of that has plans to release a consumer autonomous driving system in the US is Volvo, but they only plan on releasing it to California. That makes sense as California has reasonable weather, and they have seem to have a straight forwards regulatory approval process. Plus its the number on EV market in the US.

They're likely going to get beat to market by MB which is going to release an L3 system in Germany. Germany has tight regulations of autonomous driving. As I understand it they have no current plans to release it in the US.

In fact I would argue that the best thing about Tesla's approach is it forces regulatory action. Nothing like something dangerous to push regulators to do their jobs.

I don't support the argument that no regulations makes it easier for a manufacture when it comes to something like autonomous vehicles. It might seem like that, but it opens up a whole can of worms when it comes to liability and public outcry when/if something happens. At least with regulations the manufacture can claim they met the requirements.

 

[JulienW]

How much is the 12,000 dollar FSD worth at trade in time

Dec 31=$100, Jan 1, 2022=$100,000

 

[Daniel in SD]

Sure it gets ridiculed a lot, but it gets people talking about Tesla.

I think Elon is the worlds biggest believer in "all publicity is good publicity." I always think about this tweet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1178818555061493761

And then you have tweets like this. What is the point of this tweet other than to generate publicity?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486827458632503297

UPDATE!

 

[Knightshade]

In this country with autonomous driving the rules are still being figured. We have no nationwide standard, and instead its left up to the states. That would be fine if they could come together, and agree on some ground rules.

FWIW of the half dozen or more states that explictly permit autonomous cars right now they mostly DO agree on the ground rules.

Pretty much all of them say:

Car must meet SAE L4 or L5 requirements (in particular being able to do the entire DDT and if necessary achieve a minimal risk condition without a human)
Car must be able to obey all existing traffic laws
Car must be in compliance with any federal regulations if they ever make any


A few states have specific rules on insurance levels required.... one specifies it must be able to stop if there's an accident and not leave the scene....and one, weirdly, forbids anyone 12 and younger from riding in one unless an adult is present... but overall if someone had a viable consumer-vehicle L4 or L5 system they believed was ready today, the could deploy in today, in all those states.

 

[tivoboy]

How much is the 12,000 dollar FSD worth at trade in time

Seems to be about 3K if you look at say similar spec M3’s on Tesla used car website WITH and WITHOUT FULL FSD included… quite the value destruction. Frankly, In the next 1-2 years IF I buy another Tesla I probably would just buy only subscription FSD model if anything.

But seriously, for anyone who is buying into the FSD robotaxi story right now for the near future, meaing in 2023, they should just buy up 2019 M3’s with FULL FSD from the Tesla pre-owned inventory right NOW for 48k-50K, if it’s going to be worth 250K a year in robotaxi revenue generation in say 2023-2027. I can guaranteed you you’re not going to get that sort of return from Tesla stock in that same time frame if FSD all pans out that way..

And honestly, WHY is Tesla even SELLING these cars now with full FSD onboard if they all can be full RoboTaxis in 1-1.5 years at most and generate 250K a year in generated revenue. With so much money on hand - well, I guess they already OWN the cars no so they wouldn’t actually have to pay out anything? So they could just keep them, park them and get 4-5x their current listed market value in a couple years starting in 2023 and generate massive robotaxi income out into the future.. Isn’t that the perfect model. It’s better than owning real estate.. The Gillette razor-blade model? Be the ball Tesla!

 

[Silicon Desert]

Did Elon have a serious face today when he said level 4 FSD this year and FSD safer than human this year?

Yea that was an interesting comment. I listened to the call and if I remember correctly, he said "I will be shocked if we don't have level 4 by the end of the year". Or close to that statement. He said it twice. Sooooo, if we don't have level 4 by the end of the year, I think we should ask Elon to stick his finger in a bare light socket and flip on the switch so he can literally say he was shocked

 

[Wnuk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486880325871587329

 

[Daniel in SD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486880325871587329

Haha. He's even overly optimistic about other companies. No one is going to be able to do FSD (as he defines it, i.e. summon your car from across the country) for decades.

 

[israndy]

he said "I will be shocked if we don't have level 4 by the end of the year". Or close to that statement.

He said it would be able to drive better than a human by the end of the year, since that can't be measured in really any way except accidents per x number of miles he is probably right. People do stupid sh¡t, but will it be more comfortable to ride in with all the jerky maneuvers and the taking 4x as long to get thru an intersection as a human? Will they ever get there as fast as a human would? Perhaps the first use for the robotaxi fleet should be package delivery "Your package is waiting at the curb in that black Tesla"

 

[Silicon Desert]

He said it would be able to drive better than a human by the end of the year, since that can't be measured in really any way except accidents per x number of miles he is probably right. People do stupid sh¡t, but will it be more comfortable to ride in with all the jerky maneuvers and the taking 4x as long to get thru an intersection as a human? Will they ever get there as fast as a human would? Perhaps the first use for the robotaxi fleet should be package delivery "Your package is waiting at the curb in that black Tesla"

well but I listened to it again and he did say he would be shocked if it didn't happen by the end of the year ;-)

 

[Mardak]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1487121182155550725

I wonder if other manufacturers will become "Autopilot customers" first for current highway Autopilot? But then again which manufacturers don't already have some driver assistance they're invested in or are so behind that they would even consider switching to Autopilot? I suppose there probably would be some data/connectivity requirements for Autopilot to get updated and send back videos? This would probably be in addition to pretty strict requirements on sensor package and placement if Autopilot team doesn't want to deal with retraining networks to work on differently positioned cameras.

But the upside for Tesla could be huge in terms of data collection if the Autopilot fleet expands to say millions of non-Tesla vehicles.

 

[daktari]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1487121182155550725

I wonder if other manufacturers will become "Autopilot customers" first for current highway Autopilot? But then again which manufacturers don't already have some driver assistance they're invested in or are so behind that they would even consider switching to Autopilot? I suppose there probably would be some data/connectivity requirements for Autopilot to get updated and send back videos? This would probably be in addition to pretty strict requirements on sensor package and placement if Autopilot team doesn't want to deal with retraining networks to work on differently positioned cameras.

But the upside for Tesla could be huge in terms of data collection if the Autopilot fleet expands to say millions of non-Tesla vehicles.

Nope. VW, Audi and BMW highway autopilot equialents are of similar quality to Tesla already.

 

[Knightshade]

Nope. VW, Audi and BMW highway autopilot equialents are of similar quality to Tesla already.

Not according to every actual comparison I've seen--- even CR admits Teslas system in terms of actual capability and performance is unmatched in the industry.

 

[2101Guy]

you still posting that graph without the accompanying commentary by CR? Dont be afraid to post the entire story. LOL

 

[Knightshade]

you still posting that graph without the accompanying commentary by CR? Dont be afraid to post the entire story. LOL

You mean the commentary where they said the only reason Tesla came in second overall was not enough driver monitoring?

Which Tesla then added via OTA.

And then CR complained about THAT because OMG PRIVACY CONCERNS.

Since none of that has to do with the actual performance of the driving system seemed kinda pointless. But there you are.

 

[Mardak]

CR admits Teslas system in terms of actual capability and performance is unmatched in the industry

View attachment 761446

Interesting list. Looks like it's probably a bit outdated as it's from 2020. (But there isn't really a newer comparison either?)

At the bottom of Consumer Report's list, Mazda had a global production of just over 1 million vehicles in 2021, so would a company like that want to improve their active driving assistance by switching to Autopilot? This could be quite profitable for Tesla, but Tesla could also favor data collection over immediate revenue assuming the other manufacturer has a primary demographic different enough from existing Tesla owners.

 

[2101Guy]

Well, for one, there is the actual title/headline for the article that contains that chart, so we can start there:

Cadillac's Super Cruise Outperforms Other Driving Assistance Systems​

Other automakers close in on Tesla's Autopilot, now a distant second, in Consumer Reports' new ratings of 17 systems

Then we can reference (same article as your graph):
Even after two years, Cadillac’s Super Cruise remained our top-rated system

And:
Even with new systems from many different automakers, Super Cruise still comes out on top

And:
When it comes to lane keeping assist, Tesla did the best in our tests. But systems from Audi, Cadillac, and Lincoln performed almost as well

And:
Systems that scored the best at controlling the car’s speed were those from Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and Porsche

CR's Ranking of Active Driving Assistance Systems​

69
CADILLAC
SUPER CRUISE
Model Tested
Cadillac CT6

57
TESLA
AUTOPILOT
Model Tested
Model Y

52
LINCOLN/FORD
CO-PILOT 360
Model Tested
Lincoln Corsair
48
AUDI
PRE SENSE
Model Tested
Audi e-Tron

 

[daktari]

Not according to every actual comparison I've seen--- even CR admits Teslas system in terms of actual capability and performance is unmatched in the industry.

View attachment 761446

That seems not seem to be the latest versions? What year is that rating from?

I know it might be hard to grasp because of all the hype, but I can recommend to test ID.4 Travel Assistant and BMW iX50 Driving Assistant Professional for yourself. They are as capable.

 

[2101Guy]

Admittedly, the data is now stale. A new comprehensive study is needed, and one that takes into account such things as crossing double yellow lines, Smart Summon being "nothing but a gimmick"(c)Elon, phantom braking, and other various problems that are routinely reported by FSD drivers right here within this forum

 

[daktari]

Admittedly, the data is now stale. A new comprehensive study is needed, and one that takes into account such things as crossing double yellow lines, Smart Summon being "nothing but a gimmick"(c)Elon, phantom braking, and other various problems that are routinely reported by FSD drivers right here within this forum

Agree. I would give extra points to the germans brand for having an option to turn of automatically speed reduction. That eliminates the sudden decellerations because of poor map data. Tesla have even worse map data than the others here in Norway. No real phantom braking either. Also my experience os they pick up slow traffic further ahead - longer range radar probably.

So no need for licensing Tesla tech.