In any case @calisnow, a civil exchange. I thank you for it. We have made progress as conversation partners, IMO, no matter the differences. And differences are a good thing, they challenge the mind. 
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Elon: FSD in 2020
- Thread starter malcolm
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- Autonomous Vehicles
As a new-be to this forum, I was rather amused by the philosophical dissertations, with side trips into statistics and politics - not to mention psychology -, that this topic contains. Let me add some additional considerations from a more simple, down to earth point of view.
Upon delivery of the car, and after using it a bit, I relied that the so called self driving capabilities where roughly at the same level of a Mercedes E Class and an Audi A8.
Furthermore, since September, the following information emerged:
What am I supposed to make of all this?
Thank you for enlightening.
- I bought a Model X which was delivered on September 30th 2017.
- It was a stock car
- It had both levels of autonomous driving. Including the so called "full set driving capability.
Upon delivery of the car, and after using it a bit, I relied that the so called self driving capabilities where roughly at the same level of a Mercedes E Class and an Audi A8.
Furthermore, since September, the following information emerged:
- Cars Equipped with AP 2.0 have enough hardware to reach level 5 self driving
- Expect major upgrades to the AP in a matter of months
- Cars with AP 2.0 might require an hardware upgrade in order to achieve level 5. If this is the case, we will retrofit all AP 2.0 users
- Full self driving capability is 2 years away
- We are developing our own AI chips
- We are sending the forthcoming roadster into Mars Orbit.
What am I supposed to make of all this?
Thank you for enlightening.
Tesla never called anything "2.5" - that is a nickname applied by others when someone discovered in a tear-down that Tesla had updated the computer board and added some wiring redundancies to the latest cars. I would expect, as computing power becomes continually cheaper, that Tesla may increase the horsepower of the boards in new Teslas multiple times as a simple precaution before FSD is a reality. This would be rational behavior as it would necessitate swapping out as few customer computers as possible at service departments when FSD is "turned on" and this minoze the expense of using up service department time and wasting hardware.
You've already posted similar questions and comments regarding autopilot several times in the brief time you have been a member. Your question is quite provocative - why don't you just tell us what your thoughts are? That would be more - straightforward.
@Doug_G - can we PLEASSEEEEE have some kind of a "sticky" system so that this question and other core Tesla questions will not get asked OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER? We have the sticky "threads" but can't we have some straight up articles that exist in space, so to speak? Threads always devolve into a long off-topic conversations. Maybe that's pointless - articles would have to be updated, and now I'm asking for a wiki - which I could just make myself. Okay nevermind...
You might not care about being lied to but I think it is perfectly reasonable for buyers to complain about being lied to regarding anything in a consumer purchase (or a commercial purchase!). Lying is bad, yo? Did you not get raised properly? This isn't a white lie (if it was, it would be as paternalistic as it sounds).
If they really had no clue as to the timeline, it probably didn't help to have their CEO tweeting that it was coming December 31, 2016 AND that it was working great on Dec 22 or 23. I took delivery Dec 23 and guess what my sales people used as "The Gospel of Elon": his tweets.
So I'm hearing from everyone at Tesla, EAP now, FSD sometime in the future. I was cool with that, but now we all know that wasn't the truth. It was actually AP1 parity (ETA -- still not arrived), EAP (sometime hopefully soon), and FSD (**** all if we know, Elon trolled us too about the 3-6 months DEFINITELY).
Now we're hearing more garbage but this time it seems a lot more reasonable but that doesn't excuse the misinformation/lies.
Now I love my car too so that definitely helps ameliorate some of the issues but I can never swallow being deceived. But to admit that Tesla lied (or at least intended to deceive purchasers) but still somehow seek to excuse it is brazen.
Also, what is a "crap $92k Tesla"? I chose spring suspension (I love the springs btw though SAS is nice too), so do I have a free pass on being angry? Just curious on where the breakdown is because my car was a bit below $92k with options (before taxes) and so I'm curious.
Do you feel my car is "crap" and therefore I have a right to complain because I actually love my car (springs and all!) and I find your statement pretentious.
arcus
Active Member
One thing that it easy to forget or omit in objective evaluation of the situation around EAP/FSD is the fact that Tesla parted ways with Mobileye. Starting from scratch and assembling a new team to work on a cutting-edge technology (and developing it on your own rather than relying on 3rd party!) is a major throwback, for any company. I don't think Tesla (or Elon specifically) could predict such a turn of events when making the claim. Something to consider before applying judgement or calling someone a liar.
All of this doesn't take away that I am driving one of the most technologically advanced vehicles on the planet (if not the most one). Nothing takes away the sheer pleasure and fun to drive it every day. Like everyone else who opted for EAP/FSD when purchasing I took a leap of faith, but was (and still I am) realistic in my expectations. Maybe working in IT helps to understand the complexity of staying agile and making necessary compromises on a daily basis when it comes to business/customer needs/wants vs what is feasible at the moment. YMMV.
All of this doesn't take away that I am driving one of the most technologically advanced vehicles on the planet (if not the most one). Nothing takes away the sheer pleasure and fun to drive it every day. Like everyone else who opted for EAP/FSD when purchasing I took a leap of faith, but was (and still I am) realistic in my expectations. Maybe working in IT helps to understand the complexity of staying agile and making necessary compromises on a daily basis when it comes to business/customer needs/wants vs what is feasible at the moment. YMMV.
How deliciously Machiavellian, though, with a strong hint of Mills' Utilitarianism. The Greater Good. Very dangerous stuff because you assume people are merely things to be used without their consent because the greater good will eventually benefit. Great in theory, quite unfortunate in actual practice.
You know its more than that. Stop the misinformation campaign.
There are redundant power e-fuses on the steering in HW2.5 and a new radar (Conti ARS410 I believe). The changes hint at a bigger difference than Tesla acknowledges PLUS @verygreen has repeatedly pointed out the internal Tesla code refers to it as 3.0.
Who said it wasn't? I wasn't talking about all the buyers - I was talking about one of the numero uno suspects around here who has made a career out of bashing Tesla (at least in the past). Maybe you could start a group therapy thread where you all validate each other's hurt on a regular basis.
I was raised by wolves. Then I studied situational ethics. My life has been terrible from the start.
Didn't help what? Didn't help @croman's feelings? Sales are doing fine.
I think definitions of FSD are all over the board and what is likely to happen is gradually increasing functionality with gradually increasing reliability over time. At first I imagine the features will have an "oh *sugar* look out" quality to them - just like AP2 did at first (and to a large extent AP1 did as well in Oct 2015 on first release) and then they will be gradually refined and become more reliable as time goes by. The idea that it will be two more years before a single "feature" is turned on seems unlikely. What DOES seem likely is that internal testing is showing Tesla that they need more computational horsepower than is in the cars now to run neural nets with enough reliability to be commercially acceptable. That's an empirical issue not a theoretical issue and likely only becomes visible as the dataset grows and experience with the fleet is gained - which is why Tesla has made a big deal since the beginning of pointing out they built a swappable brain in on purpose and that they have been telling everyone for a year now (and continue to) that they will give everyone at no additional charge who bought FSD whatever "brains" turn out to be necessary.
There are numerous posters who have come on and said their AP2 now drives overall better than their AP1 ever did - they are simply not as loud and don't spend all their time droning on about it like the complainers do. But yeah - I'll grant that the pretty little icons are not there yet, reading signs isn't active yet and you still have to hit the wiper button. Let's hug it out.
What can I do to make you feel better? Would you like a cookie?
This will be hard for you to hear then - you're handsome, you're good enough - and I like you.
I'm not admitting anything because I don't live in the c suite with Elon - I'm theorizing - "yo." As for brazen - only my girlfriend gets to say that and live to tell the tale...
I wouldn't know - like I said my Tesla is not crap.
You okay man?
@DavideG Welcome to the forum, mate! HW2.5 is based on Tesla info.
I believe the HW2.5 reference first came from some code @verygreen uncovered (see other threads on this Autonomous Vehicles TMC sub-forum). It may also have an extra core or otherwise more processing power based on that info, compared to AP2 or HW2.0.
Later on Electrek, a Tesla spokesperson confirmed the nomenclature but elaborated a bit - leading to the speculation that HW2.5 is different on Model 3 than on Model S/X at the moment (at the very least latter lack the interior camera and the sandwhich CID/APE computer setup Model 3 has).
Tesla has a new Autopilot ‘2.5’ hardware suite with more computing power for autonomous driving
As for "version 3", AP2's manufacturing/option code is APH2, while AP2.5's code indeed is APH3.
I believe the HW2.5 reference first came from some code @verygreen uncovered (see other threads on this Autonomous Vehicles TMC sub-forum). It may also have an extra core or otherwise more processing power based on that info, compared to AP2 or HW2.0.
Later on Electrek, a Tesla spokesperson confirmed the nomenclature but elaborated a bit - leading to the speculation that HW2.5 is different on Model 3 than on Model S/X at the moment (at the very least latter lack the interior camera and the sandwhich CID/APE computer setup Model 3 has).
Tesla said:
Tesla has a new Autopilot ‘2.5’ hardware suite with more computing power for autonomous driving
As for "version 3", AP2's manufacturing/option code is APH2, while AP2.5's code indeed is APH3.
Is that really true? Or are you making your own subjective call on this?
Don't tell me auto-sensing rain wipers is the deal breaker here, because it is not technically an AP function, although Tesla choose to have that enabled through the AP hardware and software.
New radar also yes - I forgot. If that proves statistically significant I do hope we get our radars swapped out as well. If they won't swap us - well, guess it's time to trade up to a new S or down to a 3 to get the latest hardware while not losing one's shirt. If that hurts feelings - again I'm sorry. Has it not occurred to you that as time goes by hardware will improve? Has it not occurred to you that your great grandpa has a driver's license and he is "fully self driving" but that you'd rather ride with a younger, more capable driver. They are *both* self driving but one driver drives more safely? That's natural. I would HOPE to GOD Tesla continually puts the best of whatever components they can in their cars. There are of COURSE going to be many different kinds of self driving cars - some safer than others. They will all be "fully self driving."
Text is hard.
@calisnow meant that if he actually felt his Tesla was crap, he might feel differently about the EAP/FSD delay.
Apparently your Teslas are pretty similarly priced.
I don't care about the rain sensing wipers. It'd be nice but whatever. I'm talking about operationally. The fact it can mostly only see one car in front (and sometimes a car in front of that) is telling. It just isn't there yet. Is it close? Yes, but its not there.
Does it do some things better than AP1? Maybe but it also does a whole lot of other things worse. I don't doubt Tesla will improve its product but lets not delude ourselves into thinking AP1 parity has come and gone.
Sign recognition is yet another feature that shows maturity in the NN's abilities. The fact it is not present is telling (though, I anticipate Karpathy can readily address it, it still has not transpired). Maybe it is happening internally but as a customer, I see no benefits.
"You knew your cards and I showed you mine. I SHOWED YOU MINE! I'm okay losing but I'm not gonna forfeit." "I'm not okay losing." "I'M THE EVIDENCE! I'm the world's leading expert on the Mac John - what's your resume?" "Artists lead and hacks ask for a show of hands." "I forced the vote because I believed I was right. I still believe I was right. AND I'M RIGHT. Now I bled that night and I don't bleed, but time's done its thing and I really haven't thought about it in a while."
"You're gonna end me aren't you?"
"You're being ridiculous - I'm gonna sit center court and watch you do it yourself. Then I'm gonna order a nice meal with a '55 Margaux and sign some autographs."
Now that - son - is how it's ******** done.
Mod note - edited to remove inappropriate word.
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You are absolutely correct and I am very ashamed of my spelling error. My mother would beat me at this point for humiliating the family honor (I wasn't raised right, yo).
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