Well I purchased my car at the end of October 2016 and paid the $8000 for AP & FSD... 1 Year later we are still no closer to FSD. From using AP I dont see any way in hell that FSD is possible on this hardware.
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Elon Musk is 'full of crap'
- Thread starter ishareit
- Start date
Eyes are nothing without the brain attached to it. It is impossible to replace a lost eye with an artificial one because eyes and the brain are connected in a way that is much more than data going from the eye to the brain. It's all about processing the data in a way that our brain does. So far that's just not matched by any other system. There are some system that can do one narrow single task, but nothing that comes close to what our eyes and brain do. So comparing 2 eyes to 8 cameras is meaningless.
I'm not at all concerned about ethics. Just have the car do the simple, predictable thing (don't hit things; but if you must, stay in lane and slow down) and in the edge case of the edge case the humans will know what to do.
Tesla's cameras cover 360degrees at all times, so why would they need to turn? Having 360 degree coverage at all times is far superior to having a relatively narrow cone of focus that needs to rotate. The real question is how far off software and hardware power is from being able to process that information effectively and quickly.
You betcha! I'm blind as a bat without my glasses. I wear glasses, so it's probably more of a hazard compared to someone with 20/20 vision. I do get glare issues though it's probably the lenses themselves which probably need an upgrade.
and It sounds like you are talking about an smartphone camera which this car isn't. If you are talking about a DSLR then you should not have any issues with night time or day time shooting if you know what you are doing.
We dont even have automatic wipers.. What are these cameras going to do when it rains or snows and it cant see? Pull over to the side of the road and wait for it to stop raining?
But doesn't FSD mean that there is no human for the edge case of the edge case? The car either has it or it doesn't. Having the car do the simple, predictable thing with a human to intervene sounds like AP1.
you don't have auto wipers? I thought they were in all the telsas
AP2 and AP2.5 do not have they, though they were promised to come in December 2016.
NerdUno
Member
Do you actually know what 360 degrees means?? Have you ever seen what a Tesla has to do when it loses track of the dotted lane marker?
In an emergency situation, with an accident imminent, nobody makes ethical decisions. They react instinctively, and much more slowly than a computer does. A human driver will perceive a threat and try to brake or swerve to avoid it, and likely will not even see a second threat, much less make an ethical decision about which is more crucial to avoid. And most drivers won't make what the rest of us would consider an "ethical" decision anyway. They'll try to save themselves, regardless of the consequences to others.
A computer, though it likely won't have "ethics" programmed into it, will react so much faster that many lives will be saved.
That said, I expect that FSD will be more difficult to achieve, and slower to come, than the more optimistic predictions. Elon is an optimist, and I expect FSD to take longer than he expects. And I doubt if the hardware in Teslas built in 2017 and 2018 will turn out to be adequate for FSD. Over the course of the next years we'll get better and more capable autopilot features until we reach a stage where 99% of driving can be done by the computer. And then the last 1% will take as long to achieve as the first 99%. In ten years, when the first FSD cars are built, the first-gen Model 3 will be long out of warranty and won't be getting FSD.
Elon is not "full of *sugar*." He's just what a friend of mine calls a chrono-optimist. He expects things to get done more quickly than reality and Murphy's Law will permit.
Well, yes. But only when the weather's really dry or I've been cycling without my sunglasses. LASIK is awesome, but there are some weird side effects... ;-)
EV-lutioin
Active Member
Seems like calling Musk, "full of crap" is wishful thinking on GM's part.
T34ME
Active Member
I guess that is why the average driver speeds at 15+mph over the speed limit! I would rather depend on the ethics of the brain in the car.
Tiger
Active Member
That's the difference between humans and computers: human eys need to turn because a human's attention span can only focus to a narrow part at a time. With cameras and computers, instead, you can handle a 360 view all the time:
With more than one camera you get stereo (or "surround") vision (better 3D/temporal analytics).
Think back to how long it took you to learn how to drive a car...getting a license was the affirmation. It takes a few hundred hours for the average person to really learn and be comfortable driving a car. It's not just about the distance to the next object or the speed it is going. Current, the human brain is the only processor capable of making safe decisions based on a myriad of external inputs, especially in heavy traffic or snowy conditions.
Distractions aside, the fact is, we are a very, very long way off of true autonomous driving, if one really wants to improve the safety of driving. There are just way too many external inputs for the technology today to handle better than the human brain. Don't get me wrong, it will come...but I suspect not for at least 20 years.
Distractions aside, the fact is, we are a very, very long way off of true autonomous driving, if one really wants to improve the safety of driving. There are just way too many external inputs for the technology today to handle better than the human brain. Don't get me wrong, it will come...but I suspect not for at least 20 years.
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