Elon & Twitter

[advocate8]

I think one thing I got out of this whole thread is the important of diversification. I think it's one thing to be all-in when there wasn't so much noise, but another thing when all the dust clouds started to get kicked up (and I think there was a difference when it was FUD against Tesla the company vs the dust Elon has kicked up). Regardless of your view on Elon, I think the prudent thing to have done is to at least diversify a bit or at the very least reduce margin exposure.

How does this relate to Twitter? Well I do not think one can argue in good faith that Twitter has had zero impact on Tesla, but people get hyperfocused on wanting to be right and ignoring the big picture (I imagine two people arguing about who has right of way on a road as a flood wave approaches them), and they only end up hurting themselves. Sure, some may end up ok in the end (or even become way ahead by "sticking it to the man"), but that's a gamble one has to take if they choose to remain all in. And even as those people say "see, I was right!" you have to remember risk tolerance and morality is going to be different for everyone.

This is fair, re: the binary approach to discussin Elon and Twitter not being helpful. But if you’re saying Twitter was a diversification that wise balance to Elon’s portfolio?
It was not only unwise for the reasons long discussed here but also because of the nature of the company.
Related diversifications have by far the best chance of success and are widely regarded as the kind that strengthens an organization rather than potentially weakens it….. Twitter is not at all a related diversification….It could scarcely be more different than Tesla, Boring etc. and obviously the skills to make it succeed are different.

 

[EfficientWatts]

This is fair, re: the binary approach to discussin Elon and Twitter not being helpful. But if you’re saying Twitter was a diversification that wise balance to Elon’s portfolio?
It was not only unwise for the reasons long discussed here but also because of the nature of the company.
Related diversifications have by far the best chance of success and are widely regarded as the kind that strengthens an organization rather than potentially weakens it….. Twitter is not at all a related diversification….It could scarcely be more different than Tesla, Boring etc. and obviously the skills to make it succeed are different.

No, I was not talking about Elon diversifying, but rather how ordinary investors should react to Elon and Twitter by diversifying elsewhere.

 

[JRP3]

No, I was not talking about Elon diversifying, but rather how ordinary investors should react to Elon and Twitter by diversifying elsewhere.

Considering the sell off in TSLA we saw I'd say that's exactly what happened.

 

[advocate8]

No, I was not talking about Elon diversifying, but rather how ordinary investors should react to Elon and Twitter by diversifying elsewhere.

got it.... indeed. Unless the stock is your religion, absolutely.

 

[Norbert]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615775765702004737

lol. Is Elon really this ignorant about politics? Biden would love this.

"federal agencies".

 

[stopcrazypp]

There are various reports on this now, but this one is the most clear on the exact figures. There are finally figures on revenue, which Elon had been silent about. Basically Twitter revenue fell 35% YoY for 2022Q4 (to $1.025 billion) and current internal goal is 40% lower YoY for 2023Q1 ($732 million).

Musk’s Twitter Saw Revenue Drop 35% in Q4, Sharply Below Projections

Twitter’s fourth quarter revenue fell about 35% year over year to $1.025 billion, a top ad executive revealed at a staff meeting Wednesday, the most detailed sign yet of how much revenue has fallen. That was 72% of Twitter’s internal goalfor the quarter, according to a slide showed to employees. ...

www.theinformation.com

We know from previous reports the net increased debt load is about $1.1 billion annually so about $275 million quarterly, which is about 23% of revenue.

That means to just break even, they have to cut costs by ~60% or more YoY. That explains all the drastic measures taken so far (including defaulting on leases). Also shows how meaningless the engagement metrics that keep being trotted out are. As I said, engagement doesn't bring in the money.

 

[Daniel in SD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616088762840420352

Lol. I did only see this because someone quote tweeted him. Maybe it was this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609651319060697088

 

[JRP3]

Very strong rebuttal from Elon about EV's

 

[hacer]

Very strong rebuttal from Elon about EV's

Well there is the big problem that one of the core beliefs of the Woke Mind Virus is that global warming is real. Elon's new mission is to irradicate the Woke Mind Virus, so sooner or later he will probably be saying (or implying) that global warming is a hoax.

 

[advocate8]

Very strong rebuttal from Elon about EV's

Some days he’s really on top of his game. 4D chess. checkmate!

 

[JRP3]

Laser focused on sustainable transportation and promoting EV's. Clearly he's winning the hearts and minds of Catturd and friends...

 

[Buckminster]

This is going to be fun:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616173610259083264

 

[advocate8]

Laser focused on sustainable transportation and promoting EV's. Clearly he's winning the hearts and minds of Catturd and friends...

To be fair, he probably understands they don’t HAVE either of those two things.

 

[Black Francis]

There we are.

Twitter officially bans third-party clients with new developer rules

Twitter quietly updated its rules after banning certain clients.

www.theverge.com

"“We have been respectful of their API rules, as published, for the past 16 years,” wrote Ged Maheux, a co-founder of Twitterific developer The Iconfactory, in a blog post about the app being down. “We have no knowledge that these rules have changed recently or what those changes might be.”"

"I guess I didn't realize long standing actually means a couple hours ago, once again I'm deeply sorry."

"There seemingly hasn’t been any official announcement of the rule change, either from Twitter Dev or Elon Musk. Twitter doesn’t have a communications department to contact."

 

[Black Francis]

Imagine spending $44B so you can impress "catturd" and he spurns you.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Looming Twitter interest payment leaves Musk with unpalatable options

Purchased for $44 billion, company is likely worth as little as $15 billion today.

arstechnica.com

This article says "About 63 percent of his existing Tesla shares are already pledged as collateral for loans, according to corporate filings."

Wondering what "corporate filings" they are talking about. And that number seems awfully high.

Or is this piece just a bunch of FUD?

 

[STS-134]

That means to just break even, they have to cut costs by ~60% or more YoY. That explains all the drastic measures taken so far (including defaulting on leases). Also shows how meaningless the engagement metrics that keep being trotted out are. As I said, engagement doesn't bring in the money.

There have got to be business school case studies about companies like Kmart, Sears, and Bed Bath & Beyond who thought they could cut their way to profitability. The last one just shut down another store around here. I hadn't visited said store for about a year. Why did I stop visiting? Because the last time I did visit, there was almost nothing on the shelves.

 

[JRP3]

Hmmm, I wonder what happened from Oct on...very odd

Probably Bots. Not sure why Tesla waited until then to be more active on promotion, Elon didn't need to own Twitter for the Tesla account to post more often.

 

[Singuy]

Probably Bots. Not sure why Tesla waited until then to be more active on promotion, Elon didn't need to own Twitter for the Tesla account to post more often.

So it's a bot build by Tesla to auto like Tesla content? Why would any one else build bots to like Tesla content on Twitter? Upon viewing the comment section I don't see any spam.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Well there is the big problem that one of the core beliefs of the Woke Mind Virus is that global warming is real. Elon's new mission is to irradicate the Woke Mind Virus, so sooner or later he will probably be saying (or implying) that global warming is a hoax.

It is really weird to have one of the better scientific minds on the planet buying into political conspiracy crap that is a direct staircase that steps from denying racism exists, then vaccines-alter-our-DNA, followed by JFK-is-coming-back, and Jewish-space-lasers, and finally of course "climate change doesn't exist and everything happening to the planet is 'normal' do not, repeat do not look at the ice-shelfs - it's a hoax!