Elon & Twitter

[ZenRockGarden]

So it's a bot build by Tesla to auto like Tesla content? Why would any one else build bots to like Tesla content on Twitter? Upon viewing the comment section I don't see any spam.

I was always fascinated by the rants about bots-on-twitter. Um, Twitter literally has entire API's and ecosystems specifically designed to allow various kinds of bots to post things on. It's a major piece of their business.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616262496377085952

Elon understands this. Blue plus NN weightings will better identify the posts worth reading.

 

[Bet TSLA]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616262496377085952

Elon understands this. Blue plus NN weightings will better identify the posts worth reading.

Really? So that explains why Elon keeps responding to posts not worth reading? With posts not worth reading?

 

[Dreadnought]

Looming Twitter interest payment leaves Musk with unpalatable options

Purchased for $44 billion, company is likely worth as little as $15 billion today.

arstechnica.com

This article says "About 63 percent of his existing Tesla shares are already pledged as collateral for loans, according to corporate filings."

Wondering what "corporate filings" they are talking about. And that number seems awfully high.

Or is this piece just a bunch of FUD?

They're going out of their way to paint a bleak picture with, for instance, gems like this:
"Fidelity, which owns a stake in the social media platform through a listed fund, has cut the value of its holding from $19.7 million in October to $8.6 million after Musk closed the deal." (emphasis mine)
Some people on this board have a bigger stake in Tesla than Fidelity had initially in TWTR. How hard would it be for Elon Musk, the greatest business magnet of all times, to collect a couple more billion from his friends or pledge some SpaceX as collateral or, or?
Looks to me like they are trying to raise the spectre of Elon selling more TSLA but are a bit late to the game.

 

[bkp_duke]

There have got to be business school case studies about companies like Kmart, Sears, and Bed Bath & Beyond who thought they could cut their way to profitability. The last one just shut down another store around here. I hadn't visited said store for about a year. Why did I stop visiting? Because the last time I did visit, there was almost nothing on the shelves.

Those 3 were some of the most inefficient operations ever.

1) they didn't make their own products, they were resellers (Craftsman brand aside for Sears)
2) retail in the USA has been a dying market since Amazon started taking off. companies are literally fighting over a smaller and smaller pie each year

You are comparing that to Tesla, who is growing 50% YoY for nearly a decade?

This a false equivalency comparison (i.e. a bad analogy).

 

[B@ndit]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616262496377085952

Elon understands this. Blue plus NN weightings will better identify the posts worth reading.

Does he though?

 

[B@ndit]

Those 3 were some of the most inefficient operations ever.

1) they didn't make their own products, they were resellers (Craftsman brand aside for Sears)
2) retail in the USA has been a dying market since Amazon started taking off. companies are literally fighting over a smaller and smaller pie each year

You are comparing that to Tesla, who is growing 50% YoY for nearly a decade?

This a false equivalency comparison (i.e. a bad analogy).

No, he’s comparing it to Twitter quite obviously. What massive cuts has Tesla been making?

 

[JRP3]

So it's a bot build by Tesla to auto like Tesla content? Why would any one else build bots to like Tesla content on Twitter? Upon viewing the comment section I don't see any spam.

Sorry, the bot comment was a joke, referencing Elon's complaints about the "bot problem".

 

[ElectricIAC]

What massive cuts has Tesla been making?

Pricing.

 

[STS-134]

Those 3 were some of the most inefficient operations ever.

1) they didn't make their own products, they were resellers (Craftsman brand aside for Sears)

Twitter doesn't make the product it sells either. Twitter's product is its users, and its customers are its advertisers. Pissing off both of these groups is not a recipe for success. And if you think about it, a subset of Twitter's product, like a handful of accounts, creates the primary reason (the content) that it even has a product to sell in the first place.

2) retail in the USA has been a dying market since Amazon started taking off. companies are literally fighting over a smaller and smaller pie each year

You are comparing that to Tesla, who is growing 50% YoY for nearly a decade?

Nope, I am comparing to Twitter. Did you even read the post I quoted? Here it is again:

There are various reports on this now, but this one is the most clear on the exact figures. There are finally figures on revenue, which Elon had been silent about. Basically Twitter revenue fell 35% YoY for 2022Q4 (to $1.025 billion) and current internal goal is 40% lower YoY for 2023Q1 ($732 million).

Musk’s Twitter Saw Revenue Drop 35% in Q4, Sharply Below Projections

Twitter’s fourth quarter revenue fell about 35% year over year to $1.025 billion, a top ad executive revealed at a staff meeting Wednesday, the most detailed sign yet of how much revenue has fallen. That was 72% of Twitter’s internal goalfor the quarter, according to a slide showed to employees. ...

www.theinformation.com

We know from previous reports the net increased debt load is about $1.1 billion annually so about $275 million quarterly, which is about 23% of revenue.

That means to just break even, they have to cut costs by ~60% or more YoY. That explains all the drastic measures taken so far (including defaulting on leases). Also shows how meaningless the engagement metrics that keep being trotted out are. As I said, engagement doesn't bring in the money.

 

[bkp_duke]

Twitter doesn't make the product it sells either. Twitter's product is its users, and its customers are its advertisers. Pissing off both of these groups is not a recipe for success. And if you think about it, Twitter's a subset of Twitter's product, like a handful of accounts, creates the primary reason (the content) that it even has a product to sell in the first place.

Nope, I am comparing to Twitter. Did you even read the post I quoted? Here it is again:

Of course I read the post. I was trying to put down when I don't agree with your assessment.

My point still stands, you cherry-picked three bottom-of-the-barrel retail companies that failed to adapt to the internet age to compare to twitter. It's a very poor comparison.

Plus, as a private company, backed by one of the richest men in the world, the chances of Twitter going BK are pretty much zero. Not when Elon thinks it is so critical to the future of humanity as a town square (not debating that, just framing it in his mindset, with his money backing it).

 

[sunwarriors]

the chances of Twitter going BK are pretty much zero.

I actually think the chance of Twitter filing for bankruptcy is very high honestly. Even Elon himself has said so, threatened many times over so I await that day and your comment that you're wrong when it happens similar to all those folks who stated Tesla wil never lower prices.

Elon is a smart guy and taking it into BK will allow him to renegotiate all the debt. Unless you are talking about total collapse/liquidation which won't happen or will be far far off, but I'd wager if I could that Twitter will go BK since that's probably a smart business decision. Look at Trump and his 100 millions in losses so you never have to pay taxes again.

We'll all see in a few months/years, but I think when the pressure of paying very high debt soon for a decreased in value asset, business people will do what business people will do.

The big question is if Twitter will ever be worth more than 44 billion under Elon's ownership. Current reports of $$ (no one should care about eyeballs since eyeballs don't pay the bills to clean up crap in the offices that you're forced to go in) points to not anytime soon.

 

[bkp_duke]

I actually think the chance of Twitter filing for bankruptcy is very high honestly. Even Elon himself has said so, threatened many times over so I await that day and your comment that you're wrong when it happens similar to all those folks who stated Tesla wil never lower prices.

Elon is a smart guy and taking it into BK will allow him to renegotiate all the debt. Unless you are talking about total collapse/liquidation which won't happen or will be far far off, but I'd wager if I could that Twitter will go BK since that's probably a smart business decision.

We'll all see in a few months/years, but I think when the pressure of paying very high debt soon for a decreased in value asset, business people will do what business people will do.

The big question is if Twitter will ever be worth more than 44 billion under Elon's ownership. Current reports of $$ (no one should care about eyeballs since eyeballs don't pay the bills to clean up crap in the offices that you're forced to go in) points to not anytime soon.

OK, we are talking slightly different things then if you are taking that angle, and I agree with that.

Could Elon file for BK in order to do something shrewd like restructure debt, yes. I agree that's a possibility. But it would not be because he doesn't have the resources to pump more money into it.


Recessions are the worst time for social media companies and the like, for revenue. Advertisers dry up (even if you are not alienating them - budgets evaporate for that kind of thing). So if Twitter can weather the storm and make it through 2023/2024, they will probably be just fine.

 

[sunwarriors]

Could Elon file for BK in order to do something shrewd like restructure debt, yes. I agree that's a possibility. But it would not be because he doesn't have the resources to pump more money into it.

Isn't this so obvious though to anyone? The guy is worth 135 billion, he can easily keep it afloat if he so chooses. Again, I'd say he'd take it to BK sooner rather than later and for all we know, he's purposely tanking it more to get better terms soon.

I have doubts if it will be fine as you state, it doesn't matter now, but I'd guess there is a material impact from his antics in hiring, vendors, customers, current employees (I think they just axed another 50...thank you and FU for going 'hardcore' during the holidays!).

We'll see in a year+.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I actually think the chance of Twitter filing for bankruptcy is very high honestly. Even Elon himself has said so, threatened many times over so I await that day and your comment that you're wrong when it happens similar to all those folks who stated Tesla wil never lower prices.

Elon is a smart guy and taking it into BK will allow him to renegotiate all the debt. Unless you are talking about total collapse/liquidation which won't happen or will be far far off, but I'd wager if I could that Twitter will go BK since that's probably a smart business decision. Look at Trump and his 100 millions in losses so you never have to pay taxes again.

We'll all see in a few months/years, but I think when the pressure of paying very high debt soon for a decreased in value asset, business people will do what business people will do.

The big question is if Twitter will ever be worth more than 44 billion under Elon's ownership. Current reports of $$ (no one should care about eyeballs since eyeballs don't pay the bills to clean up crap in the offices that you're forced to go in) points to not anytime soon.

I just wonder how much leverage Musk really has. Taking it into BK could mean the creditors just take the company and sell it so someone else. Everyone knows he has the money to pay back the loan and his ego won't allow him to lose Twitter. Wouldn't the banks (or maybe some hedge funds who buy the debt) just call his bluff?

 

[sunwarriors]

I just wonder how much leverage Musk really has. Taking it into BK could mean the creditors just take the company and sell it so someone else. Everyone knows he has the money to pay back the loan and his ego won't allow him to lose Twitter. Wouldn't the banks (or maybe some hedge funds who buy the debt) just call his bluff?

It's a game of poker for sure, some articles from Nov 2022 said Twitter was probably worth $25 billion back then when Musk paid $44 billion. Musk has to look at the math and see how much he'd lose just letting creditors take it from him and his own pride/ego I guess.

Elon Musk says Twitter bankruptcy is possible, but is that likely?

Twitter regularly loses money. But Elon Musk took on billions in debt to buy the company at a time when online advertising is slumping. Could bankruptcy be next?

wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu

Do people think Twitter is even worth $25 billion now? In this economy? Does Musk really want to spend even more time/$$ trying to figure it out/turn it around? The interest from the debt is due soon.

Hedge funds can call his bluff and buy all the debt, but the debt is already priced down currently from reports I've read. And do hedge funds really want to own this debt right now at all? Would you? If it was only worth $25 billion in Nov, what's it worth now after all the reports of revenue drops? After not paying bills to conserve $$?

Pride/Ego is one thing, but like the price cuts which Musk has talked about, Musk himself had said day 1 for Twitter, we can go to BK. Why would folks here keep saying it won't happen when Musk said it's possible? (this is not even me talking Twitter down).

Sometimes, cutting your losses is the best play. Applies to everything in life.

 

[JRP3]

I guess some SpaceX employees are happy about the Twitter distraction.

Current and former SpaceX staff, who requested to remain anonymous, told Bloomberg that they didn't require Musk's attention every day. Following the billionaire's takeover of Twitter in late October, there has been a "semblance of calm," when Musk is focusing on other activities, the workers told Bloomberg.

SpaceX employees say they are relieved Elon Musk is focused on Twitter because there is a calmer work environment at the rocket company

Some SpaceX staff say that when Elon Musk is hyper-focused on daily operations, it can create more work for them, per Bloomberg.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[ElectricIAC]

I guess some SpaceX employees are happy about the Twitter distraction.

SpaceX employees say they are relieved Elon Musk is focused on Twitter because there is a calmer work environment at the rocket company

Some SpaceX staff say that when Elon Musk is hyper-focused on daily operations, it can create more work for them, per Bloomberg.

www.businessinsider.com

See? Positives all around.

 

[STS-134]

Trial is on in San Francisco: Elon Musk Takes Witness Stand to Defend Tesla Buyout Tweets

 

[Daniel in SD]

Trial is on in San Francisco: Elon Musk Takes Witness Stand to Defend Tesla Buyout Tweets

For some reason there is no recording of this on the internet. I want to hear this segment.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616553267148001280