italian bread
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When journalists reach out to Twitter, why does Twitter reply with an emoji that looks like Musk?
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Elon & Twitter
- Thread starter Buckminster
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italian bread
Member
Tesla says price drops are long-term thinking, but it’s really about demand
Anecdotally (and in data), CEO Musk’s recent behavior related to the Twitter “dumpster fire” he keeps burning his money in has affected the company’s reputation. Musk says that TSLA shareholders will benefit in the long term from all the irrelevant nonsense he’s very publicly getting himself into, but we are not convinced.
So between high prices, erratic behavior from the CEO, and availability of other EV models, customers have perhaps looked elsewhere over the last year. As a result, Tesla’s inventory started to grow in a way that the company hasn’t ever really dealt with before, and it had to start pulling demand levers. It first did this with incentives, but this year has focused instead on large price drops.
Those price drops will definitely be able to bring some customers back, but it remains to be seen if some customers were permanently turned off by the high-profile behavior of the CEO.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I mean, you wouldn't think so, given Teslas deliveries in Q1 2023 were up 36% year over year.
That seems like the opposite of buyers looking elsewhere.
This is just outright false.
Days of inventory charts have been posted before-- Q1 2023 was about the same as Q4 2022... which was about the same as MOST years outside the insane covid/supply-chain backlog period.
Days of inventory have been as high as 22 in some past quarters before that, it was only 15 this one.
back?
Sales have been increasing...a lot... every quarter.
Back from where?
What the lower price does is in bring in even more ENTIRELY NEW ones, as TAM expands.
I'm assuming they mean alternative brands.
Sales are increasing, but market share is decreasing as all the competitors enter the market.
To me the biggest advantage Tesla has is production capabilities, and pricing. Where people are buying Tesla's not necessary because its their first pick, but everything else has long waiting times.
If you looking at price, tax incentive eligibility, and short term availability the only options I see are Tesla.
Now obviously people are waiting for the waitlist of alternatives to be what they are. So we have to ask ourselves why?
Are they turned off by Elon?
Do they want features not offered by Tesla like physical buttons or things like 360 degree down facing cameras
Do they just want something different than everyone else?
Do they want the new toy (this is essentially why I moved from Tesla)
There is absolutely no way we can measure the impact that Elon is having on sales because there are too many variables, and the demand for EV's is too high. For every customer turned off by Elon there is a customer who can shrug it off.
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Um, no.
The most appropriate marketshare is total automotive marketshare, because in the end that's all that matters. All or almost all autos will transition over from ICE to EV (either by competition, or by gov mandate). Tesla has ~4% share in the US, and 1.5-2% world wide. That's a pretty impressive growth in 10 years given that the largest is Toyota worldwide at 11.5% (and ~10.5 mil annual sales), and their product mix has ASPs coming in about 40% lower in price.
EV market share is just a red hearing that the bobble heads like to throw out because they know Tesla has no where to go but down as new companies enter that "market". They do it because it means they don't have to talk about how Tesla went from a few thousand cars in 2012, to 500,000 in 2020, to 1.3 million last year, and an annualized run rate right now of 1.63 mil.
italian bread
Member
That article is from Electrek, which generally leans favorably towards Tesla.
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italian bread
Member
I guess the question to ask as legacy manufacturers introduce more EVs is, are the new EVs attracting existing Tesla owners or are they attracting current ICE and first time car buyers?
If they are attracting current Tesla owners, that is not good for Tesla. If they’re attracting larger numbers of new EV buyers than Tesla, then it also looks like Tesla is losing its shine or standing still.
Yes, Tesla has grown very fast and now holds a large chunk of the EV market. But they also were more or less the only EV game in town for many of those years. Part 2 of the story is an exciting time as the world’s car makers direct their energies towards (seriously) designing and selling EVs instead of just a few compliance models.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
They are attracting both, and there was even a term coined for it called the "Tesla stretch" where people in Hondas and Toyotas would stretch their budget to get into a Model 3 or Y as their next car.
Then, to your other question, Tesla has the highest retention of customers of all auto brands, by a lot. Something like 90-95% of current owners come back for another Tesla for their next purchase.
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stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
The article that I got it from is a bit misleading (as obviously Tesla market share in EVs will keep falling as new players are introduced even if they are growing in sales in an absolute sense), but the comment linked to this tweet, which shows interesting numbers for the market share of overall vehicles (which is more telling). Basically Tesla market share of overall vehicles is plateauing at around 3.4-3.5% since 2021Q4 or 2022Q1. Not sure if there is a newer one though.
Tesla’s EV Market Share is Dropping Fast
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
There is a new one in Tesla's Quarterly Report just out today:
Doesn't look like a plateau to me.
I think that Troy/tweet was saying by removing the smoothing impact of TTM, there are signs of a % share plateau.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
The graph I posted is 2 quarters after Troy's, showing clearly things continue to increase in % market share.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Elon Musk’s dad ‘reveals emerald mine location that bankrolled son’s US trip’
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italian bread
Member
Tesla’s EV Market Share Is Dropping Fast
Tesla’s EV market share fell from 72 percent in January-February of 2022 to 58 percent in the same time this year. Now, 58 percent isn’t exactly anything to sneeze at, but it’s still a sizable drop.
The big reason for this dip is pretty simple: competition. Other automakers are putting out stronger EV offerings in a market that Tesla used to dominate. In January and February of 2022, AutoNews said Tesla had the nation’s three most popular EVs, and four models in the top 10. Since then, the Model S has fallen out of the top 10.
“Tesla’s longtime role as the only premium EV has shifted to one of many options, with additional EVs arriving in showrooms every month,” Karl Bauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars.com, told Automotive News.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
It's like you didn't even read the multiple posts explaining why discussing "EV market share" is dumb.
It's just vehicle market share.
A thing where Tesla keeps growing, and legacy auto keeps shrinking in relation.
Not to mention, the data you're citing is from early 2022... over a year older than the chart you (mistakenly) think it disagrees with.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Am I missing something? Troy's graph goes through Q2 2022. The Tesla graph goes through Q1 2023, but it specifically says it is trailing 12 months. Doesn't that mean the Tesla graph is effectively going through Q1 2022?
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
No, it means each data point is the sum of the 12 month period ending in that Q.
It is an industry accepted method to remove seasonal fluctuations and look at growth.
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