Employee Source: Sell stock after Q1

[ZeApelido]

Ok, now that I have your attention, I have an employee source that works on the battery pack team that I happened to chat with yesterday. There's more detail and nuance to what I was told than the title says.

The Good

This person seemed very confident that they will hit Q1 target (2500 / week) for battery pack production. Keep in mind this is battery pack, not vehicle production. Personally I was surprised by the confidence in this, given current seemingly stalled production rates. Before knowing this information I had sold some shares based on low production rate with hope to enter in at lower value. Now I'm wondering when I should re-enter...some people have hoped and to me this information increases the probability of a faster ramp toward 2500 in March.

The Bad

I mentioned production hell and they corrected me "Manufacturing hell" ok... I jokingly asked if they screwed up the assembly and they said 'yes, I did'! Maybe a joke? But it didn't seem like it. They said process is simply too complicated (I think we knew that). What's odd to me in the conversation is that it was never suggested that it was some contractor's problem.

Now keep in mind my source is an acquaintance and I had this discussion via txt.

The Ugly

They said they don't believe they will make Q2 target. I mentioned Grohmann was needed to up production, and they didn't believe that information had been publicized. They wanted me to prove that information was available online. When I did all they would say was, 'I think I should sell my stock after Q1'. I tried to probe further but just got silence.

They obviously know about Grohmann but did not seem confident in them. However, this may simply be that they aren't well-versed in that aspect, and they could be totally wrong.


In the end, the positive piece of news should be the I think we should be most confident in.

 

[WileyTheMan]

So you just wanted to pass on subjective information from an unconfirmed source who doesn't have access to the big picture?

 

[ZeApelido]

So you just wanted to pass on subjective information from an unconfirmed source who doesn't have access to the big picture?

Ok, next time I'll try to text Elon.

 

[david_42]

I think I will continue to sit on my Tesla stock. It's in my IRAs, so I could play with the timing. On the other hand, several funds lost close to a billion dollars total last year shorting Tesla. Selling and buying back is much the same.

 

[P85Dave]

I think this is great advice for fruit flies who deal in Tesla stock and incapable of having an attention span or long term-planning.

Seems to me most intelligent people who have Tesla stock are in it for the long term and not the quarterly BS that have little todo with the long term growth and prospects of the company.

Hold on to your Tesla stock. It will be very valuable.

 

[lupend88]

So you just wanted to pass on subjective information from an unconfirmed source who doesn't have access to the big picture?

So you just wanted to comment on subjective information from an unconfirmed source who doesn't have access to the big picture?

 

[206er]

Don't own stock, but feeling better about having canceled my Model 3 reservation.

 

[206er]

Don't own stock, but feeling better about having canceled my Model 3 reservation.

 

[Petra]

OP, in general, be careful about receiving inside information about events or happenings which could have a future impact on the stock price...

 

[ℬête Noire]

OP, in general, be careful about receiving inside information about events or happenings which could have a future impact on the stock price...

That’s only a concern for legit insider sources, the ones that are truly actionable & valuable so you won’t see posted by a rando free-to-all on the open Internet.

EDIT: Oh wait, this is the same guy that earlier today started that bizarre thread that consisted solely of grudge quoting of people he felt wrong him in some other defunct thread? Yeah, easy call on Ignore button.......

 

[Petra]

That’s only a concern for legit insider sources, you know the ones that are truly actionable & valuable so you won’t see them posted free-to-all on the open Internet.

I just figured that a reminder might be in order

 

[anticitizen13.7]

OP, in general, be careful about receiving inside information about events or happenings which could have a future impact on the stock price...

Yeah, I was going to say that receiving non-public internal information and trading on it is a majorly bad idea.

At any rate, this info might or might not be true, so I think the wisest course of action is to do nothing. As a long term investor, my horizon is 2021-2022, so quarterly ups and downs are irrelevant noise at this point.

 

[wnorris]

They said they don't believe they will make Q2 target. I mentioned Grohmann was needed to up production, and they didn't believe that information had been publicized. They wanted me to prove that information was available online. When I did all they would say was, 'I think I should sell my stock after Q1'. I tried to probe further but just got silence

So the 'source' was not aware of the well publicized Grohmann built equipment that is being flown in to specifically alleviate the battery pack manufacturing issues? If this was indeed the line/group/division where the individual works they should absolutely be aware of this. The fact that they did not reduces all credibility. If the person is being honest then they are likely supporting the assembly temporarily using manual labor and not a longer term employee supporting dedicated to the battery pack assembly group.

Second, if they were not aware of new automated equipment coming in this month with a higher throughput then of course they would not believe Q2 targets would be met. This makes complete sense as what they currently 'see' would not support a throughput of 5k a week.

Third, a partially automated line that was thrown together after the original battery pack assembly machinery was found not to work would likely be complex. I would fully expect this and it would be another signal as to why this individual thinks Q2 targets would not be met.

Unless I am missing something this person sounds like they are too low level, don't actually work in the battery pack assembly area, or they are spreading false information.

 

[ZeApelido]

So the 'source' was not aware of the well publicized Grohmann built equipment that is being flown in to specifically alleviate the battery pack manufacturing issues? If this was indeed the line/group/division where the individual works they should absolutely be aware of this. The fact that they did not reduces all credibility. If the person is being honest then they are likely supporting the assembly temporarily using manual labor and not a longer term employee supporting dedicated to the battery pack assembly group.

Second, if they were not aware of new automated equipment coming in this month with a higher throughput then of course they would not believe Q2 targets would be met. This makes complete sense as what they currently 'see' would not support a throughput of 5k a week.

Third, a partially automated line that was thrown together after the original battery pack assembly machinery was found not to work would likely be complex. I would fully expect this and it would be another signal as to why this individual thinks Q2 targets would not be met.

Unless I am missing something this person sounds like they are too low level, don't actually work in the battery pack assembly area, or they are spreading false information.

No, they knew about Grohmann coming. They just didn't think it was public info. I don't think your interpretation makes sense.

 

[eSpiritIV]

Don't own stock, but feeling better about having canceled my Model 3 reservation.

But you obviously keep following the forums for no good reason?

 

[eSpiritIV]

The Q4 update from Elon clarified that they could reach their target without the grohman equipment. Getting the equipment would only increase production to the future 5k target

 

[TheDoktor]

So the 'source' was not aware of the well publicized Grohmann built equipment that is being flown in to specifically alleviate the battery pack manufacturing issues? If this was indeed the line/group/division where the individual works they should absolutely be aware of this. The fact that they did not reduces all credibility. If the person is being honest then they are likely supporting the assembly temporarily using manual labor and not a longer term employee supporting dedicated to the battery pack assembly group.

Second, if they were not aware of new automated equipment coming in this month with a higher throughput then of course they would not believe Q2 targets would be met. This makes complete sense as what they currently 'see' would not support a throughput of 5k a week.

Third, a partially automated line that was thrown together after the original battery pack assembly machinery was found not to work would likely be complex. I would fully expect this and it would be another signal as to why this individual thinks Q2 targets would not be met.

Unless I am missing something this person sounds like they are too low level, don't actually work in the battery pack assembly area, or they are spreading false information.

How do you know it is being “flown in”?

 

[TheDoktor]

No, they knew about Grohmann coming. They just didn't think it was public info. I don't think your interpretation makes sense.

I’ve been thinking about this and wondered what the interpretation should be. The person knows about the Grohmann line, knows it’s on the way, thinks they’ll make 2.5k by Q1 end but not by Q2. After they find out that Grohmann is coming is public information they think they need to sell after Q1?
Something is missing here. What information did you share with this person that made them react in this way?
Did they think that 2.5k was possible with Grohmann, but now they saw say the 8-k and are worried because they don’t see the 5k as possible even with Grohmann? If that is true, then why did they originally think that 5k wasn’t possible by Q2 end? What changed their...mood?

 

[McRat]

Not to be flippant, but since when has TSLA valuation been tied to hitting production deadlines?
That's like claiming TSLA will crash because of red ink.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I’ve been thinking about this and wondered what the interpretation should be. The person knows about the Grohmann line, knows it’s on the way, thinks they’ll make 2.5k by Q1 end but not by Q2. After they find out that Grohmann is coming is public information they think they need to sell after Q1?
Something is missing here. What information did you share with this person that made them react in this way?
Did they think that 2.5k was possible with Grohmann, but now they saw say the 8-k and are worried because they don’t see the 5k as possible even with Grohmann? If that is true, then why did they originally think that 5k wasn’t possible by Q2 end? What changed their...mood?

They may have been concerned about raised expectations after learning that Grohman line is public info. And comment 'after Q1' may apply to their restriction to sell until Q1 results are out, they may have quite restrictive window... I used to work in a company where I was allowed to sell only for about 25 days in the quarter, starting 3 days after results...