Energy demand in EV era

[nwdiver]

So here's some numbers comparing our additions of EV consumption vs New Wind and Solar generation.

California... the most prolific market for EVs added ~62000 cars to their fleet in 2015. Assuming 15000 miles per year and ~3 miles/kWh (~100 mpge) that's ~310MWh of additional EV consumption in California.

Meanwhile wind additions generated ~1000MWh more energy in 2015 and utility scale solar alone added ~5000MWh.

So the fastest growing EV market used ~310MWh more energy for their cars while adding 6000MWh of renewable generation...

 

[roblab]

From and older perspective: I have been in the heating and A/C installation business for about the last 50 years (more, actually). Back then, the question we heard was, "where will all the electricity come from to run all these air conditioners??" Somehow, the power providers seem to figure out how to charge more money and make more power. Every time. I've never heard of any power company running out.

While I lived in Missouri, the city down the road installed a huge nuke reactor, and our power company cut down on the coal pollution. Now, when I thought of going solar, I also thought of buying an EV, and if every new EV owner added some solar, like Tesla, TE and company are planning, it will somehow probably work itself out.

 

[Roger_wilco]

So here's some numbers comparing our additions of EV consumption vs New Wind and Solar generation.

California... the most prolific market for EVs added ~62000 cars to their fleet in 2015. Assuming 15000 miles per year and ~3 miles/kWh (~100 mpge) that's ~310MWh of additional EV consumption in California.

Meanwhile wind additions generated ~1000MWh more energy in 2015 and utility scale solar alone added ~5000MWh.

So the fastest growing EV market used ~310MWh more energy for their cars while adding 6000MWh of renewable generation...

Then things are turning to how to keep EV rev. in clean borders.
If the trend you mentioned wind and solar continues same speed (it cannot, have to stop somewhere, lack of installation areas), 6GW clean energy will support annual conversion of roughy 1.2 million cars (6000/310 *62000) from oil to EV. Considering there are about 29 million cars in Cali, (Number of registered automobiles in California 2014 | Statistic ), clean conversion will roughly take about 20 years.. Yes, efficiency and # of clean sources will increase in time, but electric demand will also increase..

 

[Ulmo]

Looking at your message, I thought my math was bad. I average 438wH/mile in 4 typical trips I found on TeslaFi, mostly in penetrating some hills (on the map it is a "mountain" range). To calculate, I'll pull one in which I went directly from home to work: in 36 minutes, I went 41.7 miles, using a scant 20.52 kWh. That is 492wH/mile.

I estimate 50,000 miles per year on my car. That is 24.6MWh. If everyone in California with an EV drove like me, and I'm estimating 200,000 EV's in California right now, then that would be 5TWh, which is 15,873x what you said.

But, let's not use me as an example. I'll use your 15,000 per car and 200,000 EV's guess I have, and use 350wH/mile, and I still see 1TWh of energy being used in California.

I see -- taking myself out of the equation, and going with your numbers, I calculate 15,000mile/y*62,000*333wH/mile, I get .310TWh/y, or 310GWh/y. Your M should be a G.

WH = 1 Wh = 3,600 Joules = 3.6kJ
kWh = 1,000 Wh = 3.6MJ
MWh = 1,000,000 Wh = 3.6GJ
GWh = 1,000,000,000 Wh = 3.6TJ
TWh = 1,000,000,000,000 Wh = 3.6PJ
PWh = 1,000,000,000,000,000 Wh = 3.6EJ
EWh = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 Wh = 3.6ZJ
ZWh = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Wh = 3.6YJ
YWh = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Wh = 3,600YJ

We use >570EJ/y worldwide (>158PWh/y), and I have a feeling that excludes a lot of energy use like growing plants, food, water delivery, cement factories, refineries, etc., but that will change as we learn how to use more energy faster. We should achieve >1ZJ/y soon, if we're not already there. We'll be multiplanitary and able to use much more of the sun's output without it being wasted in the not too distant future, too, and within my lifetime, I hope we achieve well in excess of >1YJ/y, all clean sun energy.

I really don't think we think in terms of actual energy consumption properly; I think we think if it is not burnt death, then it doesn't count, but I think it does count. For instance in Photosynthetic efficiency - Wikipedia I see that there are all sorts of undiscussed energy uses in the plants we eat and even more in the air we breath, and I think that counts as energy used per capita and worldwide in an ecosystem. The reason I think it counts is that I think sunlight is a commodity that we have to sell. We already do: real estate costs, shading costs, etc.. Soon, it coud be put on an exchange, and all of this "free air sun" hitting your property will be traded, and people will swoop up to collect it. They might use plants or panels, but the effect is the same: you loose your sunlight to someone else. We're not quite there yet, but it is a consideration in land use planning already. We're scratching the surface of this type of thinking with deserts being filled with solar panels, and already the Indians are complaining about the lost sunlight under those solar panels to their desert plants and animals. That's the tip of the iceberg. (I almost forgot something that happened centuries before my lifetime: we farmed much of the country's land, much of that land being used for sun collection (for the plant use), which also had Indians on it at one point.) We use far more energy than we give ourselves credit for.

 

[rays427]

The problem I see is the variability of wind and solar power. Eventually there will be so much solar that mid day during the summer will be be the least expensive and the evening will be the most expensive. For this same reason the cost of electricity will be higher in the winter than the summer. This will require a lot of electric storage capacity to help this situation.

 

[mspohr]

Looking at your message, I thought my math was bad. I average 438wH/mile in 4 typical trips I found on TeslaFi, mostly in penetrating some hills (on the map it is a "mountain" range). To calculate, I'll pull one in which I went directly from home to work: in 36 minutes, I went 41.7 miles, using a scant 20.52 kWh. That is 492wH/mile.

I estimate 50,000 miles per year on my car. That is 24.6MWh. If everyone in California with an EV drove like me, and I'm estimating 200,000 EV's in California right now, then that would be 5TWh, which is 15,873x what you said.

But, let's not use me as an example. I'll use your 15,000 per car and 200,000 EV's guess I have, and use 350wH/mile, and I still see 1TWh of energy being used in California.

I see -- taking myself out of the equation, and going with your numbers, I calculate 15,000mile/y*62,000*333wH/mile, I get .310TWh/y, or 310GWh/y. Your M should be a G.

WH = 1 Wh = 3,600 Joules = 3.6kJ
kWh = 1,000 Wh = 3.6MJ
MWh = 1,000,000 Wh = 3.6GJ
GWh = 1,000,000,000 Wh = 3.6TJ
TWh = 1,000,000,000,000 Wh = 3.6PJ
PWh = 1,000,000,000,000,000 Wh = 3.6EJ
EWh = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 Wh = 3.6ZJ
ZWh = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Wh = 3.6YJ
YWh = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Wh = 3,600YJ

We use >570EJ/y worldwide (>158PWh/y), and I have a feeling that excludes a lot of energy use like growing plants, food, water delivery, cement factories, refineries, etc., but that will change as we learn how to use more energy faster. We should achieve >1ZJ/y soon, if we're not already there. We'll be multiplanitary and able to use much more of the sun's output without it being wasted in the not too distant future, too, and within my lifetime, I hope we achieve well in excess of >1YJ/y, all clean sun energy.

I really don't think we think in terms of actual energy consumption properly; I think we think if it is not burnt death, then it doesn't count, but I think it does count. For instance in Photosynthetic efficiency - Wikipedia I see that there are all sorts of undiscussed energy uses in the plants we eat and even more in the air we breath, and I think that counts as energy used per capita and worldwide in an ecosystem. The reason I think it counts is that I think sunlight is a commodity that we have to sell. We already do: real estate costs, shading costs, etc.. Soon, it coud be put on an exchange, and all of this "free air sun" hitting your property will be traded, and people will swoop up to collect it. They might use plants or panels, but the effect is the same: you loose your sunlight to someone else. We're not quite there yet, but it is a consideration in land use planning already. We're scratching the surface of this type of thinking with deserts being filled with solar panels, and already the Indians are complaining about the lost sunlight under those solar panels to their desert plants and animals. That's the tip of the iceberg. (I almost forgot something that happened centuries before my lifetime: we farmed much of the country's land, much of that land being used for sun collection (for the plant use), which also had Indians on it at one point.) We use far more energy than we give ourselves credit for.

Indeed, you seem to be using more energy. I would ask why you are using almost 500 wh/mi when most Tesla's use about 300. Other small electric cars use less. Also, most people drive 12,000 miles a year, not 50,000.
If you rework your example with realistic numbers, you'll end up with something less alarming.

 

[nwdiver]

If the trend you mentioned wind and solar continues same speed (it cannot, have to stop somewhere, lack of installation areas),

We'll run out of people to buy EVs long... long... LONG before we run out of places to install wind and solar... Solar alone could produce enough energy to power everything. Wind is just a perk to provide additional energy when there's little to no sun at night and in the winter.

Eliminating fossil fuels (or fools fuel a I like to call them) will take ~20 years if the rate of growth for EVs and Solar is linear. IMO 20 years is a reasonable timeline to avoid the worst effects of our fools fuel addiction but technology shifts are rarely linear. They almost always follow an 'S' curve.

The problem I see is the variability of wind and solar power. Eventually there will be so much solar that mid day during the summer will be be the least expensive and the evening will be the most expensive. For this same reason the cost of electricity will be higher in the winter than the summer. This will require a lot of electric storage capacity to help this situation.

Millions of EVs ARE a lot of electric storage capacity. More EVs will enable more wind and solar with increasingly dynamic demand response. This is another benefit to wind... it generates more energy in the winter.

In the old days utilities matched supply with demand. In the 21st century we'll be matching demand with supply. Variability will be much less of an issue.

 

[FlatSix911]

Here is a long article summarizing what California utilities companies are doing. This has been on on-going discussion for the last few years. California is already 30% clean energy and getting cleaner every day. Large # of EVs do add significant load to the grid but the load is different from traditional electricity usage so there are new concerns, and also new approaches, such as a BMW/PG&E trial using 100 i3 to test how to shift EV charging timing to better suit peak grid power usage. Further extending that V2G (vehicle to grid) could provide battery backup for the grid. Given state regulatory support, this could also be an opportunity for utility to spend CapEx towards the charging infrastructure, not just passively handling the load demand, but actively owning a piece of the pie on the future EV economy.
How California utility regulators are turning electric vehicles into grid resources
PG&E and BMW Partner on Next Phase of Pilot Studying Advanced Electric Vehicle Charging | PG&E

The now famous duck curve shows the future EV demand issue clearly...

“As net load decreases during midday and increases in the evening, the longer and steeper ramp up after sunset will require generators to respond quickly, according to the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) Vehicle-Grid Integration (VGI) white paper.

 

[mspohr]

The now famous duck curve shows the future EV demand issue clearly...

“As net load decreases during midday and increases in the evening, the longer and steeper ramp up after sunset will require generators to respond quickly, according to the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) Vehicle-Grid Integration (VGI) white paper.

View attachment 208713

I'm sure it's obvious to everyone that the easiest way to deal with the evening duck head demand is to shift EV charging to later at night. Easily done with existing technology and incentives

 

[aesculus]

I'm sure it's obvious to everyone that the easiest way to deal with the evening duck head demand is to shift EV charging to later at night. Easily done with existing technology and incentives

The duck head is mostly defined by when TOU rates drop. If you ask people to shift their load (not just EV charging), then as soon as the TOU rate changes, they are going to start using power again.

Also there is a bit of something called the "rebound effect" going on here. If you deny something from someone, when you remove the limitation their nature is that they will use more than what they would have when the limitation was not in place. Sort of a physiological reward thing. Like the person who eats a piece of cake because they have been drinking diet sodas all day long so they can. Sometimes people that move from a gas guzzler to a efficient car actually drive more miles and use more gas because they think they can. ...

So for some producing lots of solar energy during the day gives them the perception they should be able to be power hogs later. It's complicated.

 

[Roger_wilco]

I guess its easy to bend duck's head. Electric company cooperates with Tesla and a software adjusts start of charge regionally, based on electric demand data. To benefit from even cheaper charging rates, all you have to do is accept the question appears on screen, asks for joining the cheap charging program.

Or, if name of the electric company is also Tesla, it can be even more fluent. Then the question asks, do you accept to feed the grid at evening if we guarantee your SoC will be 50% ready by 06.00 morning and never fall below 30%?

 

[nwdiver]

Also there is a bit of something called the "rebound effect" going on here. If you deny something from someone, when you remove the limitation their nature is that they will use more than what they would have when the limitation was not in place. Sort of a physiological reward thing. Like the person who eats a piece of cake because they have been drinking diet sodas all day long so they can. Sometimes people that move from a gas guzzler to a efficient car actually drive more miles and use more gas because they think they can. ...

One of the key features of successful demand response is automation... there is no incentive that would be both economically viable and sufficient to influence enough behavior to make a difference. If demand response is gonna work it's gonna be automatic... your car will charge by a schedule. Your hot water heater will take advantage of excess energy automatically and your power wall will selectively charge automatically. Software is the key... not psychology.

 

[ohmman]

The duck head is mostly defined by when TOU rates drop. If you ask people to shift their load (not just EV charging), then as soon as the TOU rate changes, they are going to start using power again.

The current duck head seem to be more defined by AC usage dictated by homeowners returning from work at the same time as a weakening sun. Shifting TOU cutoffs may provide an economic disincentive to wastefulness, but it will also be perceived as very unfair by people returning to hot California homes in the summer. It will, however, reflect the true demand, so it's supported by the economics. If and when that occurs, the most valuable duck head bender will be stationary storage, which will have absorbed the oversupply during the day and will be able to relieve the grid during high TOU periods (low solar supply periods). My possibly idealistic view is that a combination of EVs, stationary battery storage, and economics will flatten that demand curve over time, which will allow for maximum grid efficiency.

 

[mspohr]

The current duck head seem to be more defined by AC usage dictated by homeowners returning from work at the same time as a weakening sun. Shifting TOU cutoffs may provide an economic disincentive to wastefulness, but it will also be perceived as very unfair by people returning to hot California homes in the summer. It will, however, reflect the true demand, so it's supported by the economics. If and when that occurs, the most valuable duck head bender will be stationary storage, which will have absorbed the oversupply during the day and will be able to relieve the grid during high TOU periods (low solar supply periods). My possibly idealistic view is that a combination of EVs, stationary battery storage, and economics will flatten that demand curve over time, which will allow for maximum grid efficiency.

I agree.
If you look at the duck graph, there is a glut of solar power between 10am and 5 pm just before the spike in usage in the evening. It would be a simple matter to install batteries to soak up that glut and dispense it in the evening a few hours later (Tesla is already doing this for Southern California). EV charging can all be shifted to overnight when there are no problems with supply.

 

[Ulmo]

I keep thinking that charging electric cars during the day is better, at least for now (before widespread implementation of self-driving Tesla Network Uber-like service).

There are a lot of ways to achieve that. The easiest one I have thought of so far is build solar canopies at workplace parking lots and have cars at work plug in. If done exactly like this, the EVSEs can pilot an amperage that exactly uses the output of the solar canopies. Simple J1772 plugs would do, and are almost universal. Very little battery would have to be installed in the canopies, mostly to run the logic electronics, for financial accounting and such. A simple wifi connetion and optional cellular connection could handle communication. There wouldn't even need to be any grid or telephone connections, however, it would be wise to design it so that it integrates with the grid for two reasons (one: reliable charging of car during work hours, pulling in sunlight from distant sunny lands when clouds are dark; two: excess solar being fed back into the grid (see one)), and furthermore, allowing a few SFP ports so fiber connections to the building internet hookups would help round out the system. (Does J1772 pull in the VIN # of the car or any identifying information, or must that be done manually?)

A hybrid approach is install the charging stations in work parking lots and the solar panels somewhere (on or off site, same or different company, etc.).


What I suggest is exactly opposite of some other suggestions, and exactly opposite of EV-A rate plans at PG&E: the EV-A rate plan means I charge 11PM-7AM, whereas what I'm suggesting is that I charge ~10:30AM-2:30PM (piloted by sun energy collection levels). At home, I've already configured VisibleTesla to do exactly that: charge my car completely at night, but on weekends, try to trickle charge it during the day from my solar panels. In my case, I'm finding the winter output of my solar panels is insufficient for my typical weekday car use, but that's only relevant on weekends, since workdays my car is in a parking lot at work not being charged.


So, the missing piece of the puzzle in my idea is copious solar collection.

 

[rays427]

Solar works great to mitigate AC load in the summer. However the US actually uses more total energy in the winter than the summer. So I see a problem of trying to provide enough renewables during the winter. I don't know how others solar systems perform but mine has huge swings in output. My average daily output this month is under 7 kwh. It's ranged from 1.3 to 11.2 Kwh/day. The maximum monthly average was 58.85 Kwh per day last June and the peak daily was 63.3 Kwh. Wind power will certainly help but it's also variable. Someone pointed out wind output is typically higher in the winter but that's not the case in California. I'm on PG&E EV-A rate and my monthly costs have ranged from about -$200 to +$400 per month. I also use more energy in the winter than the summer even though we have propane heating. If I converted to electric heating my costs would sky rocket.

 

[Roger_wilco]

Even if we find a parking area large enough to hold several panels on roof, it will also be large enough to let several EV cars parked under, so capacity will never be enough for all the waiting cars in there. Such places may only provide support for a very limited number of EV cars, means it may serve only at initial stages of EV transition. Then, we again coming back to Elon's solar roof idea. Still seems the best solar solution since the house it installed already occupying a land and there will be no extra shadow to remaining soils of earth. I am pretty sure there will be some side effects someday, in case we cast large patches of shadows to surface of a living ecosystem.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Solar works great to mitigate AC load in the summer. However the US actually uses more total energy in the winter than the summer. So I see a problem of trying to provide enough renewables during the winter. I don't know how others solar systems perform but mine has huge swings in output. My average daily output this month is under 7 kwh. It's ranged from 1.3 to 11.2 Kwh/day. The maximum monthly average was 58.85 Kwh per day last June and the peak daily was 63.3 Kwh. Wind power will certainly help but it's also variable. Someone pointed out wind output is typically higher in the winter but that's not the case in California. I'm on PG&E EV-A rate and my monthly costs have ranged from about -$200 to +$400 per month. I also use more energy in the winter than the summer even though we have propane heating. If I converted to electric heating my costs would sky rocket.

My electricity usage does go up in winter, in part to run the natural gas furnace blower plus greater household use in the evenings. Your thoughts on the seasonality of solar got me to wondering what my mountain climate solar production from my little 2170 watt array looks like, so I plotted it out:

While the reduced production in winter, and during summer monsoon season (July and August), is apparent, the drop in production overall isn't as much as I would have guessed. I would expect that seasonality would be much greater at higher latitudes — I'm at 38º N, the equivalent of Marin County in California or southern Spain and northern Sicily in Europe — and in certain climates (the cloudy winters of coastal PNW comes to mind). I also have the advantage that I can adjust the pitch of my pole-mounted panels with the seasons and can easily pull off snow in winter. But if one sized and positioned a solar array for winter production it could work for all year demand. FWIW.

 

[Merrill]

I would love to be able to supplement my winter solar with wind power, if have done some research and installed a weather station. With the residential wind unit you need a consistent wind of no lower than 6mph for these to pencil out and I do not get that even in the winter.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Once German electricity supply got to 5% solar they started experiencing negative wholesale electricity costs on sunny weekend days. When the sun shone, the supply was so great that they didn't have room for anything else and producers had to PAY to dump their kWh onto the grid at "peak" hours. And that was all while starting to retire their nuclear facilities.

Fast forward 2 years and solar is even cheaper. It's going to be everywhere and we soon won't know what to do with all the excess. EV adoption will be the solution to our grid instability not a problem.

Makes it seem kind of silly that we're still building out natural gas plants instead of giving away EV credits and pushing for solar and smart charging.