Enough Superchargers for Thanksgiving?

[Garlan Garner]

As the story notes they've missed, by thousands of superchargers, both this and last years previous expansion goals- no reason to think that will change in 2019.

Superchargers cost capital- and Tesla has a LOT of things vying for those dollars right now, including many likely to, unlike more superchargers, actually be profitable.... (Gigafactory 3 and in theory 4, model Y, Roadster 2, eventual pickup truck, etc)

Doubtless they'll add more, M3 volume will give them no choice, but it won't be at nearly the pace they keep suggesting they intend.

They missed their own goals.

I don't know where to put my opinion on that.

They didn't miss an actual promise or shareholder promised objective.

Superchargers are a benefit to Tesla in that they partly are able to sell cars because of them. IMHO Superchargers aren't a necessity but a benefit.

I guess what I'm saying is that IMHO internal goals aren't what I hold companies to. I'm really not sure why Tesla posts sooooo many internal goals. Other companies don't. Unlike Tesla they commonly post revenue goals but not always things like "how many" widgets and details on the widgets.

I do have to say that I LOVE Tesla's transparency and have no recommendation that they should stop.

 

[Knightshade]

They missed their own goals.

I don't know where to put my opinion on that.

They didn't miss an actual promise or shareholder promised objective.
.

Not sure what distinction you are drawing here? This wasn't some leaked internal memo goal.

Teslas official publicly stated plan on their website for 2017 was

We started 2017 with over 5,000 Superchargers globally and by the end of this year, Tesla will double that number to total more than 10,000 Superchargers

They failed to reach that goal by quite a bit.

Ditto their 2018 goal they are also clearly going to fail to reach as they're not even close with like 6 weeks left in the year.

 

[sduck]

I'm quite interested in finding out how full the SC's along I81 are on Wednesday. I frequently drive up to various points on the east coast from Nashville via 81, and it's a really busy road most of the time, and stop and go on big drive days like the day before Thanksgiving and Christmas. Also the ones on I95 - that road gets ridiculous around the holidays.

 

[ckoval7]

If I had not made a run up to CT earlier this month I would have gone for Thanksgiving. Earlier this month I had no problem charging in my MS. I likely would have opted to drive my Mazda because it can do the whole route without stopping. I don't take the traditional route up I95. I save myself $50 in tolls and go through PA. Allentown is a critical charging stop for me, and I'd bet money that's gonna be pretty well full Wednesday night.

 

[rdunniii]

hmmmm….

Tesla plans to double Supercharger network, V3 delayed to ‘early next year’, says Elon Musk

It would actually be nicer, to me, if the existing network could actually do the 120kW it has the potential for. I very rarely see even 60kW at a full Supercharger. While theoretically you can charge from 20-80% in 20 minutes I've never been able to do it in 40 minutes which. I believe, is part of the reason they get backed up. Coleman Ave in San Jose took 2 hours a few weeks ago. Last weekend at Bishop Ranch in San Ramon 40 minutes got me from 33% to 82%. Yes, I do percentages other than miles.

OBTW, Is there anywhere Tesla, like GM does, publishes the amount of gas consumption avoided, by Tesla vehicles?

 

[TaoJones]

It would actually be nicer, to me, if the existing network could actually do the 120kW it has the potential for. I very rarely see even 60kW at a full Supercharger. While theoretically you can charge from 20-80% in 20 minutes I've never been able to do it in 40 minutes which. I believe, is part of the reason they get backed up. Coleman Ave in San Jose took 2 hours a few weeks ago. Last weekend at Bishop Ranch in San Ramon 40 minutes got me from 33% to 82%. Yes, I do percentages other than miles.

OBTW, Is there anywhere Tesla, like GM does, publishes the amount of gas consumption avoided, by Tesla vehicles?

I’ve seen 2 hours more frequently than I’d like lately.

The flat panels at Kettleman and SpaceX display the # of tons of pollution avoided. I don’t recall gas by the gallon though.

The urban chargers aren’t as bad as I thought they would be. It’s the rare visit along the coast that my charging session starts unpaired these days anyway.

I do wonder where the first 10 higher capability SCs will be deployed (supposedly next Spring, so September), and which vehicles will be able to leverage their full potential.

 

[TexasEV]

[QUOTE="rdunniii, post: 3214838, member: 9866" While theoretically you can charge from 20-80% in 20 minutes...[/QUOTE]
I don’t believe anyone has ever claimed that.

 

[Knightshade]

FWIW I've seen 120kw at superchargers a number of times... only time it didn't at least start that high was when I came in at relatively higher charge (like 50ish percent) and one time when it was pretty cold out (like high 30s I think)

 

[ucmndd]

If I lived in CA and was taking a long trip, I would rent an ICE car. I hate to say it but I would.

Long distance travel in California, particularly between SF/LA/Vegas/Reno, is really a solved problem at the moment. Getting to Oregon can be a bit dicey as there are a few MUST STOP locations like Corning that are small and could potentially back up on big travel weekends - but farther South is really not a problem.

Supercharger congestion is in the urban areas and frankly they're ALWAYS busy, holiday or not. Interstate 5 between LA and San Francisco has improved dramatically in the last 2 years, with travelers now able to pick and choose between:

Santa Clarita
Tejon Ranch
Bakersfield
Buttonwillow
Kettleman City
Harris Ranch
Gustine
Hollister
Gilroy


101 along the coast is a fully feasible route as well. SR 99 through the Central Valley has a few long stretches still but also perfectly workable. Interstate 80 and US 50 between Sacramento and Tahoe are well served.

If you can destination charge once you get where you're going, I wouldn't hesitate at all to take a Thanksgiving road trip in California this year. Next year, we'll see where we're at...

 

[Uncle Paul]

It is not unusual for Tesla to not reach their stated goals. Elon is an optimist, and calculates what he plans to accomplish. He allocates sufficient assets and capabilities, but reality rares it ugly head, and the end production levels fall short.

Absolutely nothing wrong with this. At my company I also often set lofty goals. We measure our results along the way, and it is more common for us to fall short than to exceed my goals. It is not a result of lack of effort, planning nor resources, but often just unforceen obstacles along the way.

We typically do better than our competitors, but still often fall short. I believe it is a good way to run a business.

The complaint...but you PROMISED! rarely gains favorable attention from me. Something I hear more from children than pragmatic adults.

 

[HopeToGolf]

I was the 3rd car (about a dozen stalls) at Milford, CT tonight (Tuesday) at 8:30ish...typical stop for me during my road trip....dinner, restroom and charging....so civilized. Passed a rest stop that had at least 6 pumps and a line out to the highway...at least 30 minutes wait for gas. In this case my EV wins or is about the same as an ICEer in terms trip time (after accounting for the fact that you cannot fuel up while eating).

 

[TaoJones]

Long distance travel in California, particularly between SF/LA/Vegas/Reno, is really a solved problem at the moment. Getting to Oregon can be a bit dicey as there are a few MUST STOP locations like Corning that are small and could potentially back up on big travel weekends - but farther South is really not a problem.

Supercharger congestion is in the urban areas and frankly they're ALWAYS busy, holiday or not. Interstate 5 between LA and San Francisco has improved dramatically in the last 2 years, with travelers now able to pick and choose between:

Santa Clarita
Tejon Ranch
Bakersfield
Buttonwillow
Kettleman City
Harris Ranch
Gustine
Hollister
Gilroy


101 along the coast is a fully feasible route as well. SR 99 through the Central Valley has a few long stretches still but also perfectly workable. Interstate 80 and US 50 between Sacramento and Tahoe are well served.

If you can destination charge once you get where you're going, I wouldn't hesitate at all to take a Thanksgiving road trip in California this year. Next year, we'll see where we're at...

All true enough. The 125 miles, mas o menos, from LA to SD, or from SD to LA if you prefer, are a different story. It's non-intuitive to take the 15 versus the 5 and 405. But I'll bet it's faster this weekend.

San Diego County - forecast missed by 80%. That's not a stretch goal missed. That's a failure in execution.

Orange County - overloaded, now including San Clemente at peak times.

LA County - Bwhahahaha.

Ventura County - Mixed bag.

All of this could have been avoided by achieving even 50% execution versus public forecasts. A reasonable expectation, especially given past failures that some are so quick to excuse. In my business universe, there is an expectation to improve over time. What we've seen lately in key markets is significant regression.

It's not all bad news. I prefer to view this growing mess as an opportunity for a marked increase in throughput at busy SCs through *upgraded chargers*, which are coming "soon". This would be really, really well received in particular in SoCal and of course in the Bay Area. And at equivalent locations nationally. It wouldn't take much to double throughput, *as long as most cars can benefit from the faster chargers*. I do seem to recall some limitation in the current cars but the details escape me at the moment.

 

[kbecks13]

It would actually be nicer, to me, if the existing network could actually do the 120kW it has the potential for. I very rarely see even 60kW at a full Supercharger.

FWIW I've seen 120kw at superchargers a number of times... only time it didn't at least start that high was when I came in at relatively higher charge (like 50ish percent) and one time when it was pretty cold out (like high 30s I think)

The reason for this is that there is only one 120 kW power supply for 2x charging stalls.

The power supply is made up of 12x 10kW units that combine to give 120 kW. If you are the only car charging at that pair of stations (i.e 2A), and your battery is below ~50%, you will get 120 kW. If a second car connects right after you to the "partner" stall (i.e 2B), then you both get reduced power but the first person has a slight advantage (maybe 90 kw and 30 kw charge rates).

Battery charge level also affects the maximum that you can draw from the supercharger, but that is another story and something you can control independent of the charger itself.

So basically it is impossible to get 120 kW to your vehicle if the supercharger is full.

 

[Zorg]

At Tejon ranch at noon today there were about 4 to 6 empty stalls.

 

[nwdiver]

2pm? no. 2am? Probably.

Can't be any worse than after a Space X launch...

 

[xilex]

It's not all bad news. I prefer to view this growing mess as an opportunity for a marked increase in throughput at busy SCs through *upgraded chargers*, which are coming "soon". This would be really, really well received in particular in SoCal and of course in the Bay Area. And at equivalent locations nationally. It wouldn't take much to double throughput, *as long as most cars can benefit from the faster chargers*. I do seem to recall some limitation in the current cars but the details escape me at the moment.

I think I'd rather have more stalls than higher throughput. Okay, maybe more urban charger stalls and higher throughput stalls along the highway superchargers that are utilized for travel.

 

[BerTX]

The reason for this is that there is only one 120 kW power supply for 2x charging stalls.

The power supply is made up of 12x 10kW units that combine to give 120 kW. If you are the only car charging at that pair of stations (i.e 2A), and your battery is below ~50%, you will get 120 kW. If a second car connects right after you to the "partner" stall (i.e 2B), then you both get reduced power but the first person has a slight advantage (maybe 90 kw and 30 kw charge rates).

Battery charge level also affects the maximum that you can draw from the supercharger, but that is another story and something you can control independent of the charger itself.

So basically it is impossible to get 120 kW to your vehicle if the supercharger is full.

Things change all the time in the Tesla world, but what you say is not exactly accurate for how things used to be. I don't have the ability to charge at the higher rates, and most of the time when I'm at a Supercharger I'm the only one there, so I have no way to observe, usually.

In the past, when a second car plugged into a pair of chargers, it had NO effect on the first car charging, but just got whatever part of the 120 kW total that the first car was not using. You indicate that it does reduce the first car's rate. Has this changed, per your experience?

 

[Zorg]

Things change all the time in the Tesla world, but what you say is not exactly accurate for how things used to be. I don't have the ability to charge at the higher rates, and most of the time when I'm at a Supercharger I'm the only one there, so I have no way to observe, usually.

In the past, when a second car plugged into a pair of chargers, it had NO effect on the first car charging, but just got whatever part of the 120 kW total that the first car was not using. You indicate that it does reduce the first car's rate. Has this changed, per your experience?

I thought there was 135 kW per pair available. Cars are limited to 120kw

 

[kbecks13]

I thought there was 135 kW per pair available. Cars are limited to 120kw

Ah sure, maybe - either way the key point i'm trying to make is that two stalls split the available power, so a full station will always be limited.

Here's a shot inside the power cabinet for a supercharger, note the 10x power units

 

[ai4px]

Is there a way to see how many stalls in superchargers are in use that doesn't involve my car? An app? webportal?