Ercot issues Conservation Warning

[canasion35]

No wind output!

Wind is an intermittent resource - if the wind isn’t blowing there isn’t any gen…same with solar!

 

[CrazyRabbit]

Wind is an intermittent resource - if the wind isn’t blowing there isn’t any gen…same with solar!

I can’t imagine a grid heavily reliant on wind. Texas grid is becoming just that. What I mean by reliant is that we cant meet demand without it. Look at last Thursday, wind was 7GW, without it we would have had rolling blackouts, batteries would not have been enough. Need more dispatchable generation. My favorite is nuclear.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I can’t imagine a grid heavily reliant on wind. Texas grid is becoming just that. What I mean by reliant is that we cant meet demand without it. Look at last Thursday, wind was 7GW, without it we would have had rolling blackouts, batteries would not have been enough. Need more dispatchable generation. My favorite is nuclear.

Building a bunch of NG CT is far cheaper and faster than the nuclear. With all the money left over you can then build a ton more solar and wind.

 

[mspohr]

I can’t imagine a grid heavily reliant on wind. Texas grid is becoming just that. What I mean by reliant is that we cant meet demand without it. Look at last Thursday, wind was 7GW, without it we would have had rolling blackouts, batteries would not have been enough. Need more dispatchable generation. My favorite is nuclear.

Nuclear is not dispatchable.

 

[canasion35]

I can’t imagine a grid heavily reliant on wind. Texas grid is becoming just that. What I mean by reliant is that we cant meet demand without it. Look at last Thursday, wind was 7GW, without it we would have had rolling blackouts, batteries would not have been enough. Need more dispatchable generation. My favorite is nuclear.

I wouldn’t say ERCOT is reliant on wind. Plus with recent legislation it’s proposed that NOGGR 245 will take off 25+ gigs of renewables in ERCOT.

 

[CrazyRabbit]

Nuclear is not dispatchable.

It is 100% as implemented today. Some of the proposed small reactor plants are to store heat so they can produce twice the reactor power on demand, I call that dispatchable.
Wind is just a toy until we figure out how to store energy…. Batteries aren’t the solution, only work for a few hours.

 

[CrazyRabbit]

Building a bunch of NG CT is far cheaper and faster than the nuclear. With all the money left over you can then build a ton more solar and wind.

If the scaredy-cats would stop litigating it, it would be cheaper.

 

[MontyFloyd]

Seem like ERCOT, in the midst of the latest warnings, was paying out tens to millions of $$$ to bitcoin miners.

https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/texas-bitcoin-riot-ercot-grid-energy-18352398.php

Texas Pays Riot Platforms $31.7M To Limit Bitcoin Mining Operations During Heat Wave - Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT)

ERCOT policy
Demand Response

Texas paid bitcoin miner more than $31 million to cut energy usage during heat wave

Texas grid paid firm to stop mining crypto during heatwave

and dozens of more reports.
What is strange is NOTHING from Fox News or the like
But there is THIS from 2022.

Crypto mining could fix Texas power problems in ‘nanoseconds’: Blockchain exec

Short answer: While ERCOT is asking people to conserve, RIOT is getting PAID to not use power in Texas.

A policy well supported by a certain person from a well known political party!
(caveat, not a bad idea, however the amount seems more like under table payoff.)
Senator Ted Cruz: Bitcoin Mining Is Benefitting The Grid And The U.S. Economy

 

[mspohr]

It is 100% as implemented today. Some of the proposed small reactor plants are to store heat so they can produce twice the reactor power on demand, I call that dispatchable.
Wind is just a toy until we figure out how to store energy…. Batteries aren’t the solution, only work for a few hours.

Nuclear is not dispatchable.
Nuclear plants run at 100% and it takes days, weeks, months to shut them down.

 

[MontyFloyd]

Building a bunch of NG CT is far cheaper and faster than the nuclear. With all the money left over you can then build a ton more solar and wind.

NG CT?
Nat Gas CT?

IMHO, adding solar will be the fastest and more economical, TO A POINT.
Right now Texas has 13,303 MW or 16.0% of total potential generation. I think that could easily double and alleviate nearly all of the high peak demand days.
Warehouse, large retail, parking garages, and the like is excellent locations and supply right where the demand is (not to mention generate at time of rising demand)

 

[nwdiver]

NG CT?
Nat Gas CT?

IMHO, adding solar will be the fastest and more economical, TO A POINT.
Right now Texas has 13,303 MW or 16.0% of total potential generation. I think that could easily double and alleviate nearly all of the high peak demand days.
Warehouse, large retail, parking garages, and the like is excellent locations and supply right where the demand is (not to mention generate at time of rising demand)

Solar isn't a substitute for capacity. I don't understand why this is so confusing. The 2021 Texas Power Crisis cost ~$200B and killed >200 people. A ~$20B investment in NGCTs and winterization would have prevented it. The O&M of 1GW of NGCT is ~$20M/yr. Incredibly cheap insurance. Maybe those turbines are built and never see a single minute of operation over a 20 year life, that would be GREAT and it SHOULD BE what happens. Is buying a fire extinguisher a waste of money if it's never used?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Nuclear is not dispatchable.
Nuclear plants run at 100% and it takes days, weeks, months to shut them down.

Nuclear is dispatchable. Dispatchable doesn't mean what you think it means.

 

[iPlug]

Perhaps meant nuclear is poorly load matching if at all and not peak matching,

 

[mspohr]

Nuclear is dispatchable. Dispatchable doesn't mean what you think it means.

What do you think it means?

 

[nwdiver]

Nuclear is dispatchable. Dispatchable doesn't mean what you think it means.

No sane utility commission is going to approve a nuclear power plant. That's being said approving a nuclear power plant that is going to sit around with surplus capacity waiting to 'dispatch' to meet an uptick in demand would be an order of magnitude more insane than approving a nuclear power plant. It costs >$200M/yr to maintain a 1GW NPP whether it produces 1TWh or 8TWh. They need to get every kWh for that ~$200M they can. >98% of the cost is per YEAR not per MWh, the fuel cost is a rounding error. That's why nuclear is not 'dispatchable'. It's a question of economics not ability.

 

[brkaus]

Solar isn't a substitute for capacity. I don't understand why this is so confusing. The 2021 Texas Power Crisis cost ~$200B and killed >200 people. A ~$20B investment in NGCTs and winterization would have prevented it. The O&M of 1GW of NGCT is ~$20M/yr. Incredibly cheap insurance. Maybe those turbines are built and never see a single minute of operation over a 20 year life, that would be GREAT and it SHOULD BE what happens. Is buying a fire extinguisher a waste of money if it's never used?

But they profit more if it’s used more, correct? So they argue they aren’t making as much as possible out of their capital investment and continue to ask for more subsidies.

 

[nwdiver]

But they profit more if it’s used more, correct? So they argue they aren’t making as much as possible out of their capital investment and continue to ask for more subsidies.

Which is exactly the problem with the lazy-'fair' way ERCOT has decided to run the grid. They have an economic incentive to run less capacity with a higher CF and just cope with the occasional rolling outage instead of having spare capacity sitting in reserve. ~Every other market in the country pays capacity to sit and do nothing just in case it's needed. In Texas if you don't generate you don't get paid.

 

[brkaus]

Which is exactly the problem with the lazy-'fair' way ERCOT has decided to run the grid. They have an economic incentive to run less capacity with a higher CF and just cope with the occasional rolling outage instead of having spare capacity sitting in reserve. ~Every other market in the country pays capacity to sit and do nothing just in case it's needed. In Texas if you don't generate you don't get paid.

Buy is they have found this cushy spot where they can withhold power and let it free market to $5k kWh.

 

[nwdiver]

Buy is they have found this cushy spot where they can withhold power and let it free market to $5k kWh.

Not sure I would characterize ~$200B in damage and >200 deaths as 'cushy'. MISO and SPP are hit with similar power demands but their markets are structured to ensure sufficient capacity. The parts of Texas not connected to ERCOT did just fine in 2021.

ERCOTs market monitor found that ERCOT power prices would need to hit $200k/MWh to motivate similar levels of surplus capacity to markets that just have a capacity market. Even at $5k/MWh it's going to take ~30 years for utilities to pay off the cost from the 2021 storm. Texas gambled and lost.

Texas regulators question common reliability metric as they pursue new standard for ERCOT grid​

 

[brkaus]

I was referring to cushy for the generators. Not for the general public.