EU Market Situation and Outlook

[matbl]

I've also managed without it for my two decades of driving. But that's not the point.
The point is that one is probably better off without blind spot detection than one that automatically turns off at a certain speed. Especially since most buyers don't read every word in the manual or release notes or lurk at forums.

It shouldn't be a HW/SW limitation since it seems to work well for every other car maker at these speeds. If Tesla deliberatly chose a cheaper HW then that's ignoring markets.

 

[Krugerrand]

The point is that one is probably better off without blind spot detection than one that automatically turns off at a certain speed.

You're going to claim Tesla is being half-assed/ignoring a market based on 'probably better off'? Let's not even mention the myriad of assumptions you've made, off the top of my head how do you know the driver won't be told in some fashion (dash display, chime, flashing warning lights, Barry White crooning...) that blind spot detection has ceased to function because the driver has exceeded speed?

We'd all probably be better off if people were randomly selected (like every 10,000th person to walk out of a liquor or Apple story, or every other person who gets pulled over for running a red light or stop sign) to redo their written and driven tests without any preparation time to cram study and practice being on their best behavior.

It shouldn't be a HW/SW limitation since it seems to work well for every other car maker at these speeds. If Tesla deliberatly chose a cheaper HW then that's ignoring markets.

You're not in a position to know what should or should not be, unless you work at Tesla and are privy to all the particulars of the design of the system and it's integration in the car?

I understand you don't think the system should work that way, but you make a mighty, premature leap in assuming it's Tesla being half-assed or ignoring a specific market. It might even have been an oversight or a miscalculation by the person with the authority to make that decision - just so you don't assume I think Tesla is perfect.

 

[dirkhh]

I think this shows that the Tesla engineers are in California.
This isn't a singular event.
Talk to people in New England about Tesla's nonchalant ignorance to cold weather driving issues.
Talk to people in Germany to Tesla's utter lack of understanding of the expectations of German car buyers spending 100k Euro on a car. Whether it's the cruise control limit at 150km/h or now the blind spot detection limit at 140km/h.
It doesn't matter if the Californians think this is reasonable and sufficient or what not. No German luxury car in that price range has such limitations. And people cruise faster than 160km/h in Germany all the time.

Tesla needs to open a lab in Germany and hire a few German engineers to provide a healthy balance to their sun-bathed Californian brethren...

 

[kenliles]

I think this shows that the Tesla engineers are in California.
This isn't a singular event.
Talk to people in New England about Tesla's nonchalant ignorance to cold weather driving issues.

maybe Elon's timetable targets the eventual earth temperatures we're at by the time we get to an EV world... Just sayin'

 

[sundaymorning]

I think this shows that the Tesla engineers are in California.
This isn't a singular event.
Talk to people in New England about Tesla's nonchalant ignorance to cold weather driving issues.
Talk to people in Germany to Tesla's utter lack of understanding of the expectations of German car buyers spending 100k Euro on a car. Whether it's the cruise control limit at 150km/h or now the blind spot detection limit at 140km/h.
It doesn't matter if the Californians think this is reasonable and sufficient or what not. No German luxury car in that price range has such limitations. And people cruise faster than 160km/h in Germany all the time.

Tesla needs to open a lab in Germany and hire a few German engineers to provide a healthy balance to their sun-bathed Californian brethren...

Lets not pin Tesla vs the German establishment. All vehicles have their pros and cons..While I love German luxury automobiles, my personal experience with German cars are not satisfactory. The electrics fail too often and the maintenance cost for German vehicles are horrendous, especially Mercs which do not have third party suppliers for parts. My uncle has made a very nice living off unsuspecting German car owners by cleverly operating his own German repair shop in the Bay Area.

I've visited friends in Germany before and can say that yes, many crazies drive at high speeds and crash their vehicles all the time. However, this is not the case for every car owner and certainly not the case for my friends. The Germans are very nationalistic and proud of their engineering, Tesla will need time to alter the perception of German superiority with small incremental moves like yesterday. My take on this is that perhaps your friends, who are conscious about "limitations" that they've either read or heard about, may not have test drove the MS. Give them time... if we speak of limitations, I have a long list of complaints about German vehicles, this was why I now own a Lexus.

 

[dirkhh]

Lets not pin Tesla vs the German establishment. All vehicles have their pros and cons..While I love German luxury automobiles, my personal experience with German cars are not satisfactory. The electrics fail too often and the maintenance cost for German vehicles are horrendous, especially Mercs which do not have third party suppliers for parts. My uncle has made a very nice living off unsuspecting German car owners by cleverly operating his own German repair shop in the Bay Area.

I've visited friends in Germany before and can say that yes, many crazies drive at high speeds and crash their vehicles all the time. However, this is not the case for every car owner and certainly not the case for my friends. The Germans are very nationalistic and proud of their engineering, Tesla will need time to alter the perception of German superiority with small incremental moves like yesterday. My take on this is that perhaps your friends, who are conscious about "limitations" that they've either read or heard about, may not have test drove the MS. Give them time... if we speak of limitations, I have a long list of complaints about German vehicles, this was why I now own a Lexus.

You are missing the point. This thread is about the EU Market Situation and Outlook.
My post is about how Tesla engineers are frequently applying their experience in temperate NoCal with SLOOOOOW traffic to the cars and seem to miss the point that that is insufficient for alleged key focus markets of theirs.

 

[maoing]

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1308...de-down-for-tesla.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

first half of March in Norway, 316 sold.

Final Feb '15
View attachment 74602

 

[sundaymorning]

You are missing the point. This thread is about the EU Market Situation and Outlook.
My post is about how Tesla engineers are frequently applying their experience in temperate NoCal with SLOOOOOW traffic to the cars and seem to miss the point that that is insufficient for alleged key focus markets of theirs.

[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961)]I think I have your point down pretty clear, they are typical points offered from early resistance against a compelling tech. The non believers and naysayers are often individuals who have yet test drive the MS and offer repetitive arguments. What you're saying about MS engineered for SF "slow traffic" has little merit against a broader understanding of what valuable engineering is about: regenerative braking and the capturing of loss energy for the purpose of efficiency. Can a Mercedes S550, SLK, CL, CLA fleet do that? Additionally I wouldn't call a P85D slow. Which then leads us to the point, being range vs speed. What do you think will happen if a Mercedes continuously drove at 100 MPH, will efficiency in MPG go up or down? MS buyers operate and own the vehicle to several advantages that ICE vehicles do not possess. The urban myth of cold weather really does not contribute to range anxiety for MS owners, why do you suppose they buy so many of these cars in Norway, is it not colder in that country? Even if the MS had 600 miles of range, naysayers will still nitpick on things such as "I like the roar of an ICE ENGINE," yea that's why they make luxury cars quieter by the year.. or how about this, "I like the smell of carbon monoxide in the morning." We all know about limitations on both fronts and you are right, Germany is not California, we have American pride here, and difference is that Tesla is still young, give them time, the improvements are pretty darn fast...[/COLOR]

 

[matbl]

You're not in a position to know what should or should not be, unless you work at Tesla and are privy to all the particulars of the design of the system and it's integration in the car?

I understand you don't think the system should work that way, but you make a mighty, premature leap in assuming it's Tesla being half-assed or ignoring a specific market. It might even have been an oversight or a miscalculation by the person with the authority to make that decision - just so you don't assume I think Tesla is perfect.

Of course I can't know. But I can make reasonable assumptions.
A. There are sensors that can do this just fine at speeds above 140 kph and has been for years.
AND
B. It's obviously not impossible to develop software for such a system using those sensors since it have existed in other cars for years.
SO
C. Tesla should be able to be as good as the competition unless they chose bad sensors deliberately or by mistake or made a crappy SW or deliberately limited it. Either way it's half-ass or ignorant to what Tesla have identified as a key market.

Don't get me wrong, I have a S85 without sensors so this have no impact on me personally but I would really like Tesla to succeed in Germany as well as all other countries. But to do that they have to step up their game

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[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961)]I think I have your point down pretty clear, they are typical points offered from early resistance against a compelling tech. The non believers and naysayers are often individuals who have yet test drive the MS and offer repetitive arguments. What you're saying about MS engineered for SF "slow traffic" has little merit against a broader understanding of what valuable engineering is about: regenerative braking and the capturing of loss energy for the purpose of efficiency. Can a Mercedes S550, SLK, CL, CLA fleet do that? Additionally I wouldn't call a P85D slow. Which then leads us to the point, being range vs speed. What do you think will happen if a Mercedes continuously drove at 100 MPH, will efficiency in MPG go up or down? MS buyers operate and own the vehicle to several advantages that ICE vehicles do not possess. The urban myth of cold weather really does not contribute to range anxiety for MS owners, why do you suppose they buy so many of these cars in Norway, is it not colder in that country? Even if the MS had 600 miles of range, naysayers will still nitpick on things such as "I like the roar of an ICE ENGINE," yea that's why they make luxury cars quieter by the year.. or how about this, "I like the smell of carbon monoxide in the morning." We all know about limitations on both fronts and you are right, Germany is not California, we have American pride here, and difference is that Tesla is still young, give them time, the improvements are pretty darn fast...[/COLOR]

If I'm not misreading his signature, dirkhh have been owning Model S's for a year and a half. I have had mine for just 8 months though. But I think we're well past the test drive stage...
Noone has called the P85D slow. But I think he called california traffic slow.
this is not bashing EV's, it's about having the same expectations on a 100k car no matter what brand it is. A technical feature that works well on many other brands shouldn't really be something that all of a sudden have a speed restriction on a Tesla. That's bad engineering from Tesla's side. It's not that hard to buy a BMW or Mercedes with these features and test how they perform and set that as the bar to release.

 

[dirkhh]

I think I have your point down pretty clear, they are typical points offered from early resistance against a compelling tech. The non believers and naysayers are often individuals who have yet test drive the MS and offer repetitive arguments

Umm. OK?
You do realize that I just got my second Model S and that I live in the US? No? I thought so.

What you're saying about MS engineered for SF "slow traffic" has little merit against a broader understanding of what valuable engineering is about: regenerative braking and the capturing of loss energy for the purpose of efficiency. Can a Mercedes S550, SLK, CL, CLA fleet do that? Additionally I wouldn't call a P85D slow. Which then leads us to the point, being range vs speed. What do you think will happen if a Mercedes continuously drove at 100 MPH, will efficiency in MPG go up or down? MS buyers operate and own the vehicle to several advantages that ICE vehicles do not possess. The urban myth of cold weather really does not contribute to range anxiety for MS owners, why do you suppose they buy so many of these cars in Norway, is it not colder in that country? Even if the MS had 600 miles of range, naysayers will still nitpick on things such as "I like the roar of an ICE ENGINE," yea that's why they make luxury cars quieter by the year.. or how about this, "I like the smell of carbon monoxide in the morning." We all know about limitations on both fronts and you are right, Germany is not California, we have American pride here, and difference is that Tesla is still young, give them time, the improvements are pretty darn fast...

I really don't know what to say to all this. You are completely and utterly missing my point. You're not even close to understanding my point. If you hadn't quoted from my post I would have sworn you aren't responding to my post.

 

[sundaymorning]

Umm. OK?
You do realize that I just got my second Model S and that I live in the US? No? I thought so.

I really don't know what to say to all this. You are completely and utterly missing my point. You're not even close to understanding my point. If you hadn't quoted from my post I would have sworn you aren't responding to my post.

D, I do know you are from Portland, OR.. I did however, mistaken your rattling problem with a complaint of a poster you quoted, who stated that none of his German cars in a fleet of 15 has ever been to the maintenance shop, while the Tesla had been there twice. Allow me to apologize for mistaken you from another member you quoted.

From my experience of purchasing new cars is that you want to avoid the first production year model. Although my Lexus LS460 is reliable, the 2007 first years have quite a bit of issues: actuator $4-5k fix, Control arms another $5k, etc. when the control arms come become misplace, the LS will do more than just rattle and shake... is your Tesla a first year model? And have they looked at the control arms?

 

[daniel Ox9EFD]

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1308...de-down-for-tesla.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

first half of March in Norway, 316 sold.

I see from CleanTechnica (link: Tesla Model S, Nissan LEAF, BMW i3 Top US Electric Car Sales In February | CleanTechnica),
That the US sales February are ~2000, ~1500 in January. That compares to ~500 in Europe in both Jan, Feb.

So, first, I have a hard time seeing how that adds up to 55k for 2015. Second, this makes Tesla a very US centric auto-maker. I'm assuming here less than 500/month in Asia+Australia.

 

[bonaire]

I see from CleanTechnica (link: Tesla Model S, Nissan LEAF, BMW i3 Top US Electric Car Sales In February | CleanTechnica),
That the US sales February are ~2000, ~1500 in January. That compares to ~500 in Europe in both Jan, Feb.

So, first, I have a hard time seeing how that adds up to 55k for 2015. Second, this makes Tesla a very US centric auto-maker. I'm assuming here less than 500/month in Asia+Australia.

I have seen the various tally forum threads here. It always looks like the reservation counts were something like four to one for the US vs. europe. I have to think that if you were to place cars at Tesla stores, Americans also would perform more impulse sales making the ratio even higher. When you compare your 4500 to 500, that is too high for the natural reservation ratio. The reason it is US centric for Jan and Feb appears to be due to the s85d initial shipments in Feb local to the US. That holds back Europe. Now, March and April should be considerably higher in Europe and Asia. RHD in UK will not happen until a little later in Q2. When I say considerably, I mean maybe 800-1000 in Norway in March, for example. First P85D have happened in Norway but not until what, March? So, things should pick up and become more like the 4 to 1 ratio.

 

[hobbes]

I see from CleanTechnica (link: Tesla Model S, Nissan LEAF, BMW i3 Top US Electric Car Sales In February | CleanTechnica),
That the US sales February are ~2000, ~1500 in January. That compares to ~500 in Europe in both Jan, Feb.

So, first, I have a hard time seeing how that adds up to 55k for 2015. Second, this makes Tesla a very US centric auto-maker. I'm assuming here less than 500/month in Asia+Australia.

If I get it right "500 in Europe in both Jan, Feb" means 500 each month, so 1000 in total? At least EV Sales: Europe lists 549 for January. So that is already approximately more than one car going to Europe for 4 going to the US as bonaire expected. Still US centric though, I agree. But I think that it pretty much in line with other US car manufacturers or even better.

Adding your numbers that would be for Jan+Feb: 4500 US+1000 EU+1000 Asia/Australia =6500. If the production rate was constant all year, extrapolating those numbers to 12 months would give only 39,000. But I would not assume a constant run rate - if they double the rate by the end of year and ramp up constantly, that would give a factor of 1.5 leading to 58,500. But most of those numbers are still estimates and as bonaire said, towards the end of the quarter sales usually go up.

What numbers did Tesla guide for Q1 again, can´t remember?

 

[daniel Ox9EFD]

If I get it right "500 in Europe in both Jan, Feb" means 500 each month, so 1000 in total? At least EV Sales: Europe lists 549 for January. So that is already approximately more than one car going to Europe for 4 going to the US as bonaire expected. Still US centric though, I agree. But I think that it pretty much in line with other US car manufacturers or even better.

Adding your numbers that would be for Jan+Feb: 4500 US+1000 EU+1000 Asia/Australia =6500. If the production rate was constant all year, extrapolating those numbers to 12 months would give only 39,000. But I would not assume a constant run rate - if they double the rate by the end of year and ramp up constantly, that would give a factor of 1.5 leading to 58,500. But most of those numbers are still estimates and as bonaire said, towards the end of the quarter sales usually go up.

What numbers did Tesla guide for Q1 again, can´t remember?

I couldn't find any information regarding guidance for Q1 2015. I see 8500 for global deliveries as a good conservative number the quarter.
But the doubling of production by year end makes these numbers have more sense. It's still tight though.

Is there any information from Tesla how the ramp up would look like? As in, will it be like in 2014, as an overhaul of the factory where they will not be producing for 3 weeks, or will it be seamless?

 

[bonaire]

Question I have overall - we know 10,000 were called out as the reservation backlog at end of the year, right?
Well, if production increases and that backlog goes down or even goes away, then what is the factory going to do - keep production going at 1000 per week and send cars to sales centers? I think the 10,000 was nondeterministic because it included a variety of new-car orders for cars that were not yet in production, the S85D. Plus variety of European P85D pending production which increased going into January. The D option was very attractive and has boosted interest quite a bit but without a backlog number being given every quarter, it is really hard to guess what the year's total may be. I have read a couple posts here on TMC about people getting some serious discounts on inventory cars this month. This is to sell more cars for the quarter and does not really indicate a huge backlog is still being built-out. I think the idea is to get more cars on the road so owners can talk about them and create more interest - leading to more sales. Volume is very important and proclamations of actual owners sells better than advertising.

Just saying "the production will double by year end" must be met with "and the order rate must also double by year end". Otherwise, it is confusing as to what is expected by management, investors and the press covering all this. The mild headwind that I see is the new CPO program offering lower-priced older models which preclude people from having to order and wait and pay more for a new one. Then if they also allow leasing of CPO cars somehow - that makes them quite attractive for someone who is on the edge of deciding to order.

If the factory doubles output to 2,000 per week, that is a 20 week period which would produce the whole Model X backlog, if production is half and half. In the Model X tally page, the incoming order rate of Model X is maybe 350 per calendar week (but it's really hard to pin point exactly) - looks to be about 50 per day. The pricing and model options need to come out to really figure out how this demand rate will continue. And, will it be like the Model S where the reservation number gets obfuscated so that the ongoing order rate becomes impossible to follow?

 

[schonelucht]

I couldn't find any information regarding guidance for Q1 2015. I see 8500 for global deliveries as a good conservative number the quarter.
But the doubling of production by year end makes these numbers have more sense. It's still tight though.

Is there any information from Tesla how the ramp up would look like? As in, will it be like in 2014, as an overhaul of the factory where they will not be producing for 3 weeks, or will it be seamless?

You can find all that information in their shareholders letter of last quarter which is prominently featured on the Tesla Motors shareholders website. They expect to deliver 9500 cars this quarter. 55% of their sales last year were domestic, 30% in larger Europe and 15% in Asia. I don't see a reason why this would be hugely different for this quarter. This would mean Europe is expected to sell just under 2850 cars. We know of approximately 1100 cars in January and February which leaves 1750 cars for March. It's doable but it probably requires nearly 1000 cars in Norway alone.

 

[Krugerrand]

Of course I can't know. But I can make reasonable assumptions.

You think it's reasonable to call Tesla half-assed and ignoring a market (that they obviously - stated publically - feel is important) without knowing the specifics of what's going on behind the scenes and why specific decisions were made? Our conversation ends since we clearly don't agree about what is reasonable.

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The D option was very attractive and has boosted interest quite a bit but without a backlog number being given every quarter, it is really hard to guess what the year's total may be.

Once again completely ignoring the CEO's continued assurances that 'we have NO demand problem', as well as the 'we don't have to advertise this year (2015), might need to next year (2016), or the 'we have a secret weapon to increase demand that will also take on the dealerships'. Failing to acknowledge those statements doesn't make them not true.

I have read a couple posts here on TMC about people getting some serious discounts on inventory cars this month. This is to sell more cars for the quarter and does not really indicate a huge backlog is still being built-out.

It indicates no such thing. What it does indicate is that the CPO program is quietly being rolled out. It may also indicate a significant change in the car that we don't know about yet and Tesla simply wanting to restock all stores/galleries with the latest and greatest.

Just saying "the production will double by year end" must be met with "and the order rate must also double by year end". Otherwise, it is confusing as to what is expected by management, investors and the press covering all this.

Order rate will easily double with the addition of Model X to the roads. Just sit back and watch.

 

[daniel Ox9EFD]

You can find all that information in their shareholders letter of last quarter which is prominently featured on the Tesla Motors shareholders website. They expect to deliver 9500 cars this quarter. 55% of their sales last year were domestic, 30% in larger Europe and 15% in Asia. I don't see a reason why this would be hugely different for this quarter. This would mean Europe is expected to sell just under 2850 cars. We know of approximately 1100 cars in January and February which leaves 1750 cars for March. It's doable but it probably requires nearly 1000 cars in Norway alone.

Ok I see it now under "2015 Outlook". (I blame my poor reading comprehension).
Some speculation on Norway sales: Sorry, the page you requested could not be found - TheStreet
In short, they counted 316 for March 1 to 16 in Norway model S sales. So sales better pick up in the next two weeks or they will miss another quarter. Or perhaps the report is wrong.

This might sound like bean counting to the average Tesla fan, but after being years late with the model X, asking investors to believe the model 3 won't share the same fate is a bit of a stretch. So it would be good to know they are not chronically over-optimistic.
In the shareholder letter there will be in Q1 a week of non-production for retooling. Anyone know if that happened already? If so guidance for Q2 should be higher.

 

[Krugerrand]

This might sound like bean counting to the average Tesla fan, but after being years late with the model X, asking investors to believe the model 3 won't share the same fate is a bit of a stretch.

It is a grievous mistake to think that. There were several reasons for Model X delays, least of all were the engineering feats that had to be attained. Once it became apparent the Model S was going to be wildly more successful than ever imagined, there was no rush for Model X to get to market to do what it was originally intended to, which was to generate money to advance the company. Model S has done that all on its own (SuperCharger Network, expansion of stores/SCs anyone?) and by doing so more time could be spent solving and perfecting further features (like AWD, autopilot), get them into the Model S for some real world testing and have them ready to rock and roll for the Model X, which will make it an even better vehicle than it was originally intended to be. Model X is going to blow the doors off anything and everything in its segment and surrounding segments. People will forget it was ever deliberately delayed.


Everything is done for the Model 3. Everything. No advancements needed. No engineering problems to solve or perfect. All done. It'll be a cakewalk compared to the S & X. It seemed the hardest decision for the Model 3 was just made recently, when it was officially announced by Elon that they'd go with a less wild design, saving that for the next iteration of Model 3.

But even more important and why there will be no delay, Model 3 is tied to the Gigafactory, and the Gigafactory is tied to partnerships with other companies. Model 3 will not be late like the Model X, because it can't be.