Nothing new or hard has to happen for Model 3 and that's been stated by Tesla. Once you know how to make a cake, making muffins (even if in a different flavor) isn't hard...
So again I say, thinking Model 3 development and deployment will in any way be parallel to the development and deployment of Model X is false, and would pretty much conclude the business of Tesla.
So very true.
While I understand why investors are cautious over M3 time frame, I feel that factoring the historical time frame of MS and MX delays may not be as warranted as one assumes. Model S delays were a contribution of many understandable factors:
1. An inexperienced Tesla working on a new product.
2. Instead of using Lotus chassis, Tesla had to design their own. No prior experience to learn from.
3. Almost every component to produce alphas were outsourced, meaning the MS cost $1 million a piece to make instead of $50-$80k. This greatly hindered Tesla's ability
to mobilize forward as parts weren't readily available and highly expensive in a time when liquid capital was a nuisance.
4. Tesla designed a totally new infotainment system, never been tried by anyone in the auto industry before, no predecessor to mimic or learn from.
--had cash problems.
5. New battery design & new skateboard design which again, had no predecessor to emulate.
6. Software bugs were everyday struggles: door, largest panoramic roof, lights, etc..
7. Attracting reputable engineers were challenging.
--ran into more cash problems...
8. Lacked sufficient manpower & experience to mobilize orders of new robotics and meet deadlines.
9. Many hours went into dead projects, such as the 2 gear shift trial but gained lots of insight.
--yet more cash problems.
10. All the rigorous testing in crash, safety, handling, etc. had to be done twice, three times before launch.
--did I mention cash problems?
Now the S launches! Applause applause, hugs, cheers, kisses, cries. Moving onto X
1. A more experienced and confident Tesla emerges to work on a not so entirely new product.
2. Old chassis, some new modifications...
3. Majority of parts for Alphas can now be produced in house.
4. Same infotainment as S with lots more modifications to capability (similar to D, autopilot, navigation, and more).
5. Same skateboard design with modifications, likely same batteries as well...
6. Software bugs continue to bite, but no worries, we're well staffed.
7. Engineers from the likes of AAPL, GOOGLE, FACEBOOK, Mercedes, Aston Martin come pouring in at the boatloads.
8. Still lacks manpower due to demand. Damn you demand!
9. A bazillion more cash pours into more dead projects, but invaluable insight was acquired for launching rockets.. damn it Space X, you always get the good stuff. Oh wait, Space X sometimes shares valuable insights through their own failures. NVM this is a FWB arrangement and should be of discretion so shhhhhh this never happened...
10. Elon: Rigor is key!
1st trial: we are the worlds best and littlest car company, we have standards and set examples, so why can't I get those gull wing doors to work properly? Fix it delay it!
2nd trial: What the hell is wrong with the center row of seats in here, it looks like New Orleans after Catrina, didn't I say museum? Think Mona Lisa in the Louvre and try this thing again..
3rd trial: what? You have to drive this big thing around town too? This X thing should really drive itself by now!! no no, we're doing this all wrong. Delay it.
4th trial: Ok, so it can drive itself, but can it park itself is the real question? I'm thinking out loud here, but what if it parks and the charger connects itself like a snake? "For realz" that would be cool, no?
Really though, I think the delays in X were due to Elon's high expectation for a SUV that again, had no predecessor to emulate. We know how Elon is, he wants the car to rock! The X as we know it, will be like the D on steroids with monster gull wings and improved software version 7, 8 or 9. The bugs I'm sure will be ironed out as they are being tested on current fleets of 70,000 Model S, data are being collected daily for analytics and modifications are made to fit the TESLA standard.
Technically, the M3 project started in 2013 with the hire of the Aston Martin executive. In 2014 we see Tesla file patents for Lithium Air. That's 4 years of modifications and testing, can it be on time? I think it can, will it be delayed? Maybe. Are there risks involved, yes but what investments do we know of that don't have risks? Will this thing sell, you bet! Are the stakes higher? Ask Panasonic...
Instead of listing challenges that TESLA may face, the list above was meant to show us how Tesla has tackled those challenges. Sure X was delayed, but it could very well be on time had Elon wished to weed out all the cool features. Regular seating, regular software, regular doors, etc. M3 will be pretty cool, will Elon want it cooler than the X? I think not... right now as it stands, Tesla is much more equipped and prepared than 2012 for the design and testing of M3. The latest feature and software release is a teaser for MX and M3 IMO.