EU Market Situation and Outlook

[smac]

The news release including the table above is interesting though, seems like EVs are on a strong uptrend (not that this is a surprise ).
New car registrations grow steadily as ultra-low emission vehicles surge past 10k mark - SMMT

Take it with a pinch of salt Hobbes, ULEV's include the Mitsubishi Outlander, and they are selling like hotcakes.

The latest government figures are out for Q1, and Mitsubishi sold 4,900 Outlanders here in Q1 alone. That brings their total to almost 10k units since UK launch, and I'd expect them to keep shifting units at those sorts of rates for a while longer yet.

The Model S in comparison sold 219 cars in Q1, which I'm sure must be slightly disappointing.

 

[hobbes]

Take it with a pinch of salt Hobbes, ULEV's include the Mitsubishi Outlander, and they are selling like hotcakes.

Yeah, I wonder why they often mix EVs with hybrids. The article also has this plot though which differentiates EVs, and even though we don´t get the numbers, my estimate is about a factor of 2 from last year.

The Model S in comparison sold 219 cars in Q1, which I'm sure must be slightly disappointing.

O.k., the estimate we had in the wiki was 280. Gonna change that. Do you have a source I can link to?

 

[smac]

Yeah, I wonder why they often mix EVs with hybrids.

Technically because the government targets here are based on ULEV adoption, not ZEV adoption.

The stuff that is really selling well that counts as ULEV is actually PHEV in the main.

i3 REX, Outlander, and even the i8 all outsold the Tesla. The Leaf has hung in, but mainly because of crazy finance discounts.

The i3 REX is pulling way ahead of the i3 BEV now, at 478 vs 271.

I hate to say it, but for the UK market a REX in the Model S would have probably made more sales traction than a faster 0-60 time or AWD. Q2 numbers here will be dire, as they've had no product to sell with people waiting until September for the D motor cars.

I don't mean to be all gloom and doom, but it's not looking great here atm. Sometimes it's just what the market wants, and even if you have the most fabulous product if no one wants to buy it, then it doesn't matter

O.k., the estimate we had in the wiki was 280. Gonna change that. Do you have a source I can link to?

All licensed vehicles and new registrations (VEH01) - Statistical data sets - GOV.UK

 

[Earlian]

Compare percentage of cars delivered in the first half of the last month of Q1/Q2 relative of that month´s total (1140 in Mar, for June assuming same total (1532) for whole Q2 as in Q1):

Q1: 316/1140 = 28%
Q2: 191/(1532-230-346) = 20%

Looks like we are a bit behind. But then, we still have a day to go until 1st half of June .
Hope theStreet doesn´t make any FUD out of this...

There is a race for Q2 numbers - starting now.

This is one of severall pictures of European Service Centers, with a lot of cars, waiting to get delivered:

 

[schonelucht]

Dutch car incentives will undergo a big change starting 2017. The current plan under discussion in the second chamber is not so favorable for the model S and model X but is very favorable for a cheaper full EV like the model 3. Basically fiscal incentives for a full EV will top out at 50 000EUR. PHEVs will loose all fiscal benefits. The Dutch government is also dropping the official target of 200 000 full EV cars by 2020. Since the Dutch car market is very sensitive to fiscal pricing incentives, I foresee a big positive impact on 2016Q4 Tesla sales and a big negative impact on 2017 sales.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Edit4: I post this stuff because I don't think I would be doing Tesla or Tesla owners any favors by hiding these problems or sweeping them under the rug.

FWIW, I appreciate that. I get that there are disagreements on this, but personally I think it is both useful and helpful to have posters like you.

 

[glhs272]

FWIW, I appreciate that. I get that there are disagreements on this, but personally I think it is both useful and helpful to have posters like you.

Thanks. I posted a follow up in a more appropriate thread. http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/29834-Drive-Unit-Replacement-Poll/page28

 

[hobbes]

Some numbers for June were posted on the Norwgian EV forum; as of June 13th, there were:

- 191 new Model S registered
- 187 of these were AWD and 4 were RWD

That means that for Tesla, AWD currently has a 98% market share in Norway. (I would be surprised if Tesla still offers a RWD Model S in three months.)

New numbers from elbilforum.no for June as of 6/20 (thanks to MrBacardi for counting!):

384 new registrations
-including 380 dual motor, 4 rear wheel drive
-including 347 85 kWh and 37 with standard battery (60/70 kWh)
-including 382 with 5 seats and 2 with 4 seats (executive rear seats)

So the rate has about doubled compared to the first two weeks of June.

Someone from Norway please correct me if I didn´t translate this correctly.

 

[Car4CivilizedAge]

The above is correct. June sales will be about 1000 model s I reckon.

Also in the news from Norway: two biggest cities might abolish gasoline cars within inner city limits.

 

[Model 3]

Also in the news from Norway: two biggest cities might abolish gasoline cars within inner city limits.

That was the headline. If you read the articles all the way down to the bottom it was talking about an environmental fee.

http://www.nrk.no/hordaland/vil-stenge-sentrum-for-vanlige-biler-1.12419197

Allowed to run for a fee

It may also be possible for ordinary vehicles to drive in the low emission zone, but it will cost meat.

- One can imagine that you have to pay a proper fee. So if someone absolutely must travel with the car, then they can be allowed. Such strict charges may also come to apply to the business world. Vans and taxi industry is a separate challenge, says Melby.

(Google translated)

Some media also talked about an possible exception for AWD diesel cars?!?!?

 

[hobbes]

Also in the news from Norway: two biggest cities might abolish gasoline cars within inner city limits.

Wow... now that is a step forward! In comparison, Germany it thinking about opening bus lanes for electric cars but including hybrids.
Thanks for checking my translation.

 

[Yggdrasill]

The above is correct. June sales will be about 1000 model s I reckon.

Also in the news from Norway: two biggest cities might abolish gasoline cars within inner city limits.

I doubt there will be a ban. But if it's watered down to a $50-100 toll fee for the inner city for fossil cars, that will still be great.

I doubt it would mean much for the Model S or Model X, but Model 3 sales should benefit greatly from such a policy. (Though if the policy would also apply to taxis, Model X sales could really be affected.)

 

[hobbes]

(Though if the policy would also apply to taxis, Model X sales could really be affected.)

Are there many Model X taxis in Norway ? Seriously - do you think Model X would be the obvious vehicle of choice over Model S? At least at Amsterdam airport, there is a whole fleet of Model S taxis.

 

[Model 3]

Seriously - do you think Model X would be the obvious vehicle of choice over Model S?

More headroom in the back-seat.
Easier entrance/exit.
Room for 7 adults.

Absolutely.

 

[hobbes]

More headroom in the back-seat.
Easier entrance/exit.
Room for 7 adults.

Absolutely.

Ok, makes sense, I guess. It´s just unusual around here to see SUV-type vehicles as taxis.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Ok, makes sense, I guess. It´s just unusual around here to see SUV-type vehicles as taxis.

That's because their gas mileage sucks.

 

[hobbes]

June sales will be about 1000 model s I reckon.

That sounded a bit high for me at first... Then I looked back into the posts from March to see where we were at around Mar 20 and found this from Yggdrasil as of 2015-03-23:

The number registered stood at 371 yesterday, and with 7 out of 22 working days remaining in March, the final number should end up somewhere around 544.

Now that sounds like a realistic number ... However as we all know, March ended up at 1140 registrations. So maybe the 1000 estimate for June is better than it seemed at first! Actually, we are also ahead in the race compared to March: 384 vs. 371! If we really end up at 1000+ for Norway and the other European countries follow suit, that could be a blowout quarter at least for Europe (from Apr-May, we are already more that 800 cars ahead of Q1)!

 

[Car4CivilizedAge]

Yeah, this was also my assumption. Another reason for a strong June is that people were afraid of a removal of incentives from 1. July( that didn't happen) so many of June deliveries were ordered in October after D announcement. (+Currency situation)

 

[smac]

More headroom in the back-seat.
Easier entrance/exit.
Room for 7 adults.

Absolutely.

I agree, the only spanner in the works is if Elon's "It's not cool to abuse local Superchargers" letter, expands into something with more legal teeth.

There were caveats being rumoured for commercial use. The UK taxis putting big miles on the cars purely from Supercharging, and causing congestion at Heathrow and we know the same is true in Amsterdam.

It's a real challenge, how do Tesla balance the economics of the car which is being swayed by the "free fuel" to the taxi fleet, yet still deliver a useable network for occasional long distance travel of private cars.

An interesting factoid. When O2 launched the unlimited data plan into the UK (the equivalent in many ways to the current free fuel for life), 0.1% of users used 36% of the data! This is when they started throttling, and eventually stopped offering the service altogether. Step 1 in them addressing the issue was to write an "education letter" obviously this didn't work.

History doesn't repeat but it often rhymes

 

[Yggdrasill]

Yeah, abusing the superchargers isn't cool. But the first non-Tesla operated supercharger recently opened in Sweden (though limited to 60 kW): Tesla Sold 60KW to a Business Owner | Electrek

It's likely that taxi companies buying hundreds of Model X will get access to buy Superchargers.

(Though the need for Supercharging for taxis isn't huge. The experience with the Model S is that it can last a whole shift on a full battery, so a 11 kW charger overnight is usually enough.)