EU Market Situation and Outlook

[matbl]

Oh, you use diesel buses in Norway? Ouch. The cities I know in the U.S. switch to CNG years ago, and I had assumed as much in Norway. Diesel would change the equation, as you point out.
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Maine transit agency spurs wider adoption of alt fuels - Metro Magazine


Here in Portland we're even shifting over the school bus fleet to CNG:
Portland transitions to compressed natural gas school buses to save money, lungs BDN Maine

There are less particles from CNG, sure. But it is still a fossil fuel that adds CO2. So not a huge advantage compared to dirsel.
unless the CNG is made from biomass of course. But that is not very common.

 

[svp]

First numbers seem to be in for Sweden - 77 cars in May
http://www.bilsweden.se/storage/ma/08caf056f5364ee986077704d8f676b2/4f07a46f9b6c4e7393d7e1f636c06b79/xlsx/17FB9B9F8019C69C94C2BE2F074D23D3935DB5B9/topplistanmaj15.xlsx?MediaArchive_ForceDownload=True

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Austria - 33 cars in May
http://www.statistik.at/wcm/idc/idcplg?IdcService=GET_PDF_FILE&RevisionSelectionMethod=LatestReleased&dDocName=035718

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Finland - 12 cars
http://aut.fi/files/979/Toukokuu_2015.pdf

 

[Model 3]

Norway 346 in May, #2 after Golf (including eGolf) and 2.9% of total sale.
YTD is 2108 - 3.5%

Source: http://www.ofvas.no/aktuelt-2/bilsalget-i-april-article490-396.html
Yes, it say "april", but if you scroll down to the list, you can select "mai" (May) and "modellfordelt" (rated by model).

Edit: Scrap the above, that page is now removed and replaced with this new:
http://www.ofvas.no/bilsalget-i-mai/category661.html
Witch of course have the same numbers....

But this has some more analyces of the numbers:

1868 new zero-emission cars in May
In May, it registered 1,868 new cars with zero emissions. There are 522 more (27.9%) than in May 2014. Zero emissions vehicles had 15.5 percent market share among passenger cars in May, while the market in May 2014 was 10.9 percent. Among zero emission cars that were registered in May was 3 hydrogen cars, the rest was EVs.

It was used imported 260 cars with zero emission in May, there are 52 more (25.0%) than in May 2014.

Overall it was first registered (new and used imported) 2128 cars with zero emission in May, there are 574 more than in May 2014.

51 new vans with zero emissions
It was registered 51 new vans with zero discharge in May, in May 2014 the number was 33. All the vans with zero emission electric cars were.

It was used imported 8 zero-emission vans in May, compared to 2 in May 2014.

36.9% AWD
In May were registered 4440 new cars with all-wheel drive, a share of 36.9%. In the same month in 2014 was four-wheel drive proportion 32.6%.

(As you can see, the "D" fits our marked :tongue: )

 

[hobbes]

Thanks for the new numbers! Added a May column to the wiki table and put Norway, Sweden, Austria and Finland results. Comparing Apr+May with Jan+Feb for these four, we have an increase of 73% for Q2! However, as noted before, Elon said they were planning to not make as strong end-of quarter-rushes as they used to.

If you want to add new numbers yourself, see my post below.

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France also posts good results for Tesla in May:

The Renault continues to lead with 656 ZOE registered before the Nissan LEAF (135) and Tesla Model S (50) which for the first time entered the top 3 manufacturers. Then come the Volkswagen E-Golf and e-up! (50) Bolloré Bluecar (46) and Smart Fortwo Electric Drive (43).

The article this is from also has a nice picture , good PR for Tesla.

 

[schonelucht]

129 for the Netherlands in May. A very good number for a half-between month, but as hobbes said, we will have to wait and see what impact the new geographical planning has on overseas end-of-quarter deliveries. We can reasonably expect 1000 deliveries this month, maybe 2000 next month.

(I wanted to edit the WIKI but wasn't sure I wouldn't mess up everything)

 

[Model 3]

Btw: An update with some headlines in Norwegian media about the May sales: (google translated quotes (with some fixes))

http://www.dn.no/nyheter/naringsliv/2015/06/02/0840/Bilsalg/norsk-nybilsalg-sank-i-mai

Norwegian new car sales fell in May
But several (more) bought the electric car Tesla.

Sales of new cars fell 2.4 percent in May 2015 to 12,036, which was 301 fewer than the same month last year.

...

It was sold 346 Tesla (in this) month, up 2.9 percent from the same month last year.

http://www.hegnar.no/motor/artikkel549227.ece

Tesla Model S tops 4x4 list
Tesla Model S is the country's most popular four-wheel drive.

Tesla and Toyota knives to have the country's best-selling (registered) four-wheel drive. Right now, the American electric vehicle manufacturer with Model S barely past Toyota RAV4, but it is very tight.

Of the 2,108 Model S cars registered so far this year, 1,844 has operation on all fours. Only VW Golf can demonstrate better registration figures overall.

 

[svp]

Belgium - 75
http://www.febiac.be/documents_febiac/publications/2015/06-2015/cars.pdf

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Updated wiki for Belgium and Netherlands
BTW, my estimate at this point is that Elon referred only to the push of the last few days when they were scrambling to squeeze as many cars as possible into the quarter, but NOT to the geographical distribution of cars to optimize last month of quarter deliveries. There's simply no evidence to that - April dropped compared to March in all territories, if you look at delivery times, they pretty quickly went to June for US, but were pushed out for Europe. Anecdotal evidence of people getting new VINs in UK with delivery targets of Sep (month 3 of Q3), etc..

 

[SebastianR]

Looks like a strong month for Tesla in EU - oh, I can already smell the bear headlines that of course the demand in the US must be crumbling...

By the way: only a total of 574 electric cars in all of Germany in May. I didn't find a number for Tesla yet.

 

[hobbes]

Looks like a strong month for Tesla in EU - oh, I can already smell the bear headlines that of course the demand in the US must be crumbling...

Look like we at least have estimates to refute that:
Tesla Sales Rev Up 50% In May As Stock Outlook Lifts

 

[svp]

Inside Ev estimates very good sales in May
May 2015 Electric Vehicle Sales in US Hit New Highs

 

[svp]

I am surprised by very high numbers by Inside EV. They are also saying EU and ROW are dropping, which we know is wrong
"we would be very much surprised to see more than ~800 or so delivered in the rest of the world during the month."

Estimates for US deliveries from other websites are way lower. Could it be that Inside EV started significantly overestimating US sales?
Until now they have been pretty much accurate (look at Q1 numbers for example - seem reasonable).

 

[techmaven]

I am surprised by very high numbers by Inside EV. They are also saying EU and ROW are dropping, which we know is wrong
"we would be very much surprised to see more than ~800 or so delivered in the rest of the world during the month."

Estimates for US deliveries from other websites are way lower. Could it be that Inside EV started significantly overestimating US sales?
Until now they have been pretty much accurate (look at Q1 numbers for example - seem reasonable).

InsideEV's is as fallible as anyone else's guesses. In this case, they are likely very wrong, but since we won't have conclusive information on a monthly basis except for Europe, they have plenty of time to shim up the estimates to make the year look right after 3 Tesla earnings reports.

 

[bonaire]

Is Europe entirely new cars? Is there any chance CPO cars were sent to Europe and elsewhere and would they count in say Norway or Netherlands during registration tracking?

 

[Yggdrasill]

The Norwegian numbers are new registrations only. Used car imports are a different statistic.

 

[matbl]

Is Europe entirely new cars? Is there any chance CPO cars were sent to Europe and elsewhere and would they count in say Norway or Netherlands during registration tracking?

That would require some rebuilding of the car first. I doubt they will go that way unless they have a huge stockpile of cars in the US.

And as Yggdrasill says, the norwegian number is new registrations only. Same goes for the swedish number.

 

[Yggdrasill]

That would require some rebuilding of the car first. I doubt they will go that way unless they have a huge stockpile of cars in the US.

I thought the same thing about the Leafs, but we've been receiving them from the US in large numbers. Without working GPS and Carwings, that is.

But the obstacles to exporting Model S to Europe are probably a bit too high. For one thing, you'd need to basically replace the entire charge system; Charge port, Chargers, High Voltage Junction Box and a good chunk of the cabling. Probably a ~20k USD job. (If you don't do this, the fastest compatible charging will be 220V 32A. No supercharging, no three phase charging. You could include the CHAdeMO adapter, of course, which brings the max up to 45 kW or whatever.)

 

[ggr]

I thought the same thing about the Leafs, but we've been receiving them from the US in large numbers. Without working GPS and Carwings, that is.

But the obstacles to exporting Model S to Europe are probably a bit too high. For one thing, you'd need to basically replace the entire charge system; Charge port, Chargers, High Voltage Junction Box and a good chunk of the cabling. Probably a ~20k USD job. (If you don't do this, the fastest compatible charging will be 220V 32A. No supercharging, no three phase charging. You could include the CHAdeMO adapter, of course, which brings the max up to 45 kW or whatever.)

That is ample for home charging; you get home from work, plug in, and it's full in the morning. Superchargers are available for long distance charging. I don't understand why anything else would be important.

 

[Cobos]

That is ample for home charging; you get home from work, plug in, and it's full in the morning. Superchargers are available for long distance charging. I don't understand why anything else would be important.

You can't supercharge a US Model S on the European supercharger network. They use completely different plugs, US uses Tesla's proprietary 2 pin plug, while EU uses Teslas variant of a Type II plug.

Cobos

 

[Yggdrasill]

You can't supercharge a US Model S on the European supercharger network. They use completely different plugs, US uses Tesla's proprietary 2 pin plug, while EU uses Teslas variant of a Type II plug.

Yes, the lack of supercharging would definitely be the biggest issue. That's not to say a US Model S wouldn't sell, they would just be compared to a 60 kWh without supercharging enabled. And on an EU Model S, you at least have the option of enabling supercharging, so the comparison wouldn't be entirely favourable for the US Model S.

Assuming Tesla would honor the warranty, my guess is that you could sell a US 2014 60 kWh Model S without supercharger access for around 400.000 NOK, or about 51k USD. A 2014 P85+ bundled with a CHAdeMO adapter might go for 550k NOK, or about 70k USD. And a 2015 P85D bundled with a CHAdeMO adapter might go for 600k NOK, or 77k USD.

Assuming shipping costs, documentation, minor modifications, etc at around 5k USD, that means that a 2014 60kWh Model S would need to be bought at 46k USD or less, a 2014 P85+ at 65k USD or less and a 2015 P85D at 73k USD or less, for it to make any kind of sense in shipping them to Norway. I don't know exactly where prices are in the US, but I'm guessing this wouldn't be a big money maker.

 

[Model 3]

Assuming Tesla would honor the warranty, ...

And here is the problem... Was it not that one or two Model S was imported before the European deliveries started? If I remember correct they had to send the cars back to US to get warranty repairs.