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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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Based on the numbers in my earlier post I did one more calculation to show just how big numbers are, and how hard it will be for Tesla to ship enough Model-3's to The Netherlands (and how big the pain will be for BMW, Audi, VW, Ford, Toyota etc, etc in the Netherlands). (See EU Market Situation and Outlook - Page 191 )

Based on a typical Euro 40.000 + VAT company car, a business owner or an employee choosing a Model-3 over a gas car will save a significant amount of Tax over the typical Lease / ownership period. This tax advantage is guaranteed for at least 5 years after purchase of the car.

Saving over 3 years (typical lease time) :
36 month x Euro (437 -/- 79) = Euro 12.888,--

Saving over 5 full years (guaranteed tax advantage period):
60 month x Euro (437 -/- 79) = Euro 21.488,--

So, just by choosing a BEV like the over a comparable class 'normal' car, saves you total of almost 13k or even more than 21k over the time you use the car. While driving a similar class car.. That is the savings in nett income tax! All "suffering" required is driving Model-3 instead of your typical BMW-3, Audi, VW, Ford or Toyota company car.. That buys many nice vacations & dinners for the effort and 'suffering'.

And that's before savings on maintenance and gas...
 
Based on the numbers in my earlier post I did one more calculation to show just how big numbers are, and how hard it will be for Tesla to ship enough Model-3's to The Netherlands (and how big the pain will be for BMW, Audi, VW, Ford, Toyota etc, etc in the Netherlands). (See EU Market Situation and Outlook - Page 191 )

Based on a typical Euro 40.000 + VAT company car, a business owner or an employee choosing a Model-3 over a gas car will save a significant amount of Tax over the typical Lease / ownership period. This tax advantage is guaranteed for at least 5 years after purchase of the car.

Saving over 3 years (typical lease time) :
36 month x Euro (437 -/- 79) = Euro 12.888,--

Saving over 5 full years (guaranteed tax advantage period):
60 month x Euro (437 -/- 79) = Euro 21.488,--

So, just by choosing a BEV like the over a comparable class 'normal' car, saves you total of almost 13k or even more than 21k over the time you use the car. While driving a similar class car.. That is the savings in nett income tax! All "suffering" required is driving Model-3 instead of your typical BMW-3, Audi, VW, Ford or Toyota company car.. That buys many nice vacations & dinners for the effort and 'suffering'.

Very interesting analysis, Geradf. Thank you very much.
One question: Do employees in the Netherlands have to pay for the fuel they consume or do they usually receive a company fuel card? The reason I am asking of course is the possible additional fuel savings.
 
Very interesting analysis, Geradf. Thank you very much.
One question: Do employees in the Netherlands have to pay for the fuel they consume or do they usually receive a company fuel card? The reason I am asking of course is the possible additional fuel savings.

Good question.

The employee normally has to pay nothing. Typically company car owners get a tank card. The tax I describe is to tax the private advantage that an employee has for using the car in private, it is considered income, thus the percentage added to the taxable income. In case one can proof the car is not used for private the tax is waived. However such is not easy to proof.

However, the lower costs for gas / energy should result in lower monthly lease fees for the employer... Or more options that can be bought within the lease-car budget.
 
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Q1 guidance 16000 is only 1K less than Q4 delivery 17000. If compare January to October EU delivery, it's 676 vs. 1047. Will be interesting to see how well Feb delivery goes?

January 2016 data collection is complete: Tesla Europe Registration Stats - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum
Switzerland´s registration number added today tops the list at 138. Total for Europe is 676 (with UK being a lowball estimate), which compares to 488 in January last year.
Troy prepared a nice plot comparing current data vs. a year ago:

https://www.google.com/url?q=https:...180000&usg=AFQjCNGs5RE0wWPsqam9GgTVYEjX5OvrXw
 
There will be place for both in the market for sure, but at the same price level, who would go for the Bolt / Ampera ? Unless you do not want to wait.

I am hugely skeptical on a like for like basis the cars will be even close price wise.

The Bolt will likely come with a decent radio, sunroof, comfortable seats, leather, parking sensors, heated steering wheel, fog lights, roof bars, etc. etc. out of the box even in middling trim variants.

Compared to the Tesla which, based on the current design studio model of maximising gross margin through options (some of which really should be standard, and others clearly half done to drive upgrades), it is highly likely to be significantly more expensive than the headline numbers in a specification you would actually want to own.

On this basis, and given the same pot of money, the choice will be between the badge kudos and supercharger infrastructure of the Tesla, or the creature comforts of the Bolt. I think there will be a market for both. I certainly would consider the Bolt, as I don't need/use supercharging.
 
MrBacardi from elbilforum.no is has not been updating the thread with weekly delivery numbers for the last two weeks. Do any TMC people from Norway know what´s going on?
Last update is of Feb 13: (Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!

I don't know why, but lately he has dropped to update that thread each week, and only update Elbilsalget måned for måned (BEV sale month for month), where he puts the delivery numbers on all BEV's - including Tesla. His latest is from February 20 - last Saturday. I do expect him to update this thread today - or maybe he is waiting for the end of month - where he probably will update both threads. Mind you, this numbers includes used car imports and other sources of error.

Tesla deliveries in Norway in February - as of February 20. - is 27.
 
Looks like Germany ministers have finally agreed on incentives for EV, as Der Spiegel reports (saw this on the short term thread, and followed to the original source of the articles quoted there):
Google Translate


This is not official yet, there will be another meeting with manufacturers in mid-April, but plans of the government are:

- 5000 EUR for private buyers
- 3000 EUR for commercial buyers
- Starting July 2016
- Dropping 500 EUR every year
- 40% coming from car manufacturers

Also part of the same program (total of 1.3 billion EUR):
- 15,000 new charing points
- funding for battery research
- 20% or more of German federal car purchases to be EVs

Looks like this includes plug-in hybrids :(.
 
Looks like Germany ministers have finally agreed on incentives for EV, as Der Spiegel reports (saw this on the short term thread, and followed to the original source of the articles quoted there):
Google Translate

........................

Looks like this includes plug-in hybrids :frown:.

Thanks for the link hobbes.

Here is Clean Technica article on the same subject: Germany considering e5000 electric car subsidy, with automakers contributing 40%

I missed a reference to hybrids in both Clean Technica article and in your link. It seems to me that the incentive is only for electric cars.

This incentive will drive sales of electric cars in Germany.

Big opportunity in the European Union is if similar regulation is introduced at the EU level, rather than at the individual country level.
 
I missed a reference to hybrids in both Clean Technica article and in your link. It seems to me that the incentive is only for electric cars.

Plugin Hybrids are included, see end of the article:

Of the financial promotion of electric vehicles not only frugal small cars would benefit, but also fat SUVs and sports cars. We have collected the most absurd premiums winners:

Also see this article which states the eligiblity of PHEVs explicitely:
Google Translate
 
Plugin Hybrids are included, see end of the article:

Also see this article which states the eligiblity of PHEVs explicitely:
Google Translate

Thanks for clarification hobbes.

My read of the statement
Of the financial promotion of electric vehicles not only frugal small cars would benefit, but also fat SUVs and sports cars.
is that it refers to electric vehicles.

I would not use a term electric vehicle for hybrids. However, the photos below the statement seem to confirm your interpretation, that hybrids are included.
 
Thanks for clarification hobbes.

My read of the statement
Of the financial promotion of electric vehicles not only frugal small cars would benefit, but also fat SUVs and sports cars.
is that it refers to electric vehicles.

I would not use a term electric vehicle for hybrids. However, the photos below the statement seem to confirm your interpretation, that hybrids are included.

And then look at that photo gallery they are referring to with the gallery title "Purchase premium for plug-in hybrids: Aid for the 130,000-euro "
 
I am not able to get the detailed file yet, but the KBA summary article explicitely mentions 91 newly registered Teslas (presumably all Model S this time) in February, a plus of 250 percent versus February 2015.

Original article (in German) here:
http://www.kba.de/DE/Presse/Pressem.../pm07_2016_n_02_16_pm_komplett.html?nn=716864

Thanks! But someone was quicker and had already posted it to the wiki: Tesla Europe Registration Stats - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum
 
So we have some data on our 2 missing countries:

I believe Denmark shows only 2 Teslas for February, but someone speaking Danish should confirm.
For Switzerland they do not have the detailed model list out yet, but the cumulative deliveries of pure EVs for February shows 135 - assuming 10-20 of those are other brands (there were 12 Leafs sold in January...)

Altogether looks like 650-660 for February which is a bit soft compared to January, but I would assume March will go up as shipments of January manufacturing arrive our side of the Atlantic.

The UK seems to be a wildcard with the official site not being updated for even Q4 to give us a better estimate than the Q3 based 107 per month... anything can happen there.

PS: Don't even get me started on my own country which seems to be the only place in the EU where data is not available for free (i have asked), and the only thing they do publish is 2x a year cumulatives per brand - and Tesla being mixed in "others" I would have to wait for the annual statistics (not available for 2015 yet...) to be able to report. With no official Tesla presence in Budapest yet, though, our numbers are probably immaterial - if anything we may be a market for second hand Western European Teslas like with many other brands.