EU Market Situation and Outlook

[schonelucht]

Switzerland also delivered : 59 for this month, up from 58 last quarter and down from 70 last year.

Overall May will come down to between 500 and 600. Unfortunately the UK numbers make it impossible for now to be more precise. That number is roughly equal with last quarter but down significantly from last year's 1028. June should be a blow out month.

 

[schonelucht]

Switzerland reorted 59 (58 last quarter, 70 last year). May will end up somewhere between 500 and 600 when everything is said and done on the UK which has surged way above traditional heavyweight Norway.

 

[mrco]

Hi Eisa,
EAFO numbers are a more than 6 months behind. For example early last month, UK 2015 numbers were still unknown. The estimate on the wiki was 991 units. EAFO was 838 units. If we trusted EAFO and lowered our estimate, it would be even more wrong because two weeks later Gov.uk published the official number as 1470 units. Furthermore, even today EAFO website still reports 838 units for 2015 UK sales. To see this, click HERE and on the left change country to UK. To see the official number (1470 units) from Gov.uk, click HERE and download Table VEH0160. Because EAFO has incorrect numbers on their site, it is not a reliable source. Btw, your edit button will be available after a few more messages.

Hi mrco,
Using SMMT numbers for UK estimates is an interesting idea. I've created this table to see if there is some consistency in percentages:

Unfortunately the percentages are not consistent. For example in Q4 2015 SMMT reported 937 units as "Other imports". Later from the Gov UK number we found out that 800 of those were Tesla Model S. That's 85.4%. However in Q2 2015 the percentage was 26.9%. So the percentage of Tesla UK sales within SMMT's Other imports is anywhere between 26.9% to 85.4%. That's not very useful. Said that, I admit there is a huge increase in Q1 2016. It is most likely that again 85% or over of that 1018 number are Teslas. That would mean 1018*0.854= 860 units for Q1 2016 and 290 monthly average. We could switch to SMMT based estimates. We could use the last known percentage to calculate this months data.

Hobbes, what do you think? Stick with Gov.uk based estimates or switch to SMMT? Of course these estimates are there for a few months until the official numbers replace the estimate.

Actual UK Q1 numbers are now available - 762 MS sales
Vehicle licensing statistics: January to March 2016 - Publications - GOV.UK

It's close to my estimate of 778 (1018 'other imports' via SMMT, less historical quarterly average of non-Tesla 'other imports' - 240).
I do prefer my estimated method of taking monthly 'other imports' and taking off 80 (or 240 per quarter) for non-Tesla's. Tesla deliveries are more volatile than the myriad of other imports that make up the rest of 'other imports' so you're more likely to see the real picture if you take off this base level, rather than using a percentage. Support the 80 number is - the average monthly non-tesla import since beginning of 2013 has been 76. Over the last 12 months, 85.

 

[mrco]

When UK model X deliveries start, we won't be able to split the estimate between the S & X. According to a verbal comment from Tesla UK, there are c1000 X reservations here. Subject to order conversion, they should be delivered this year.

 

[hobbes]

Wow: All new cars mandated to be electric in Germany by 2030
Nothing official for now, but if this is true... Was surprised about the same news from Norway, but from Germany - just wow.

 

[schonelucht]

On the Norwegian EV forum, MrBacardi gave an update for the month of June through the 10th. 58 Model S which is weak so far (last year we had 191 by the 13th). At least there is still more than 2 weeks. Better news are the first 4 Model X cars registered in Norway. Also in Germany and the Netherlands a few model X's were spotted the last few days.

 

[hobbes]

There was a electromobility promotion event by the city where I live today. Tesla had a car there, too. I tried to talk the representative into giving me a test drive as I haven´t experienced AutoPilot first hand yet, but he said he couldn´t do it there due to insurance issues. So I ended up asking abou the availability of regular test drives, and he said they had 7,500 people in queue for just the Tesla store where he works! So no chance for me in the short term I guess, but great from an investor´s point of view, no doubt there is increasing demand.

 

[Cattledog]

There was a electromobility promotion event by the city where I live today. Tesla had a car there, too. I tried to talk the representative into giving me a test drive as I haven´t experienced AutoPilot first hand yet, but he said he couldn´t do it there due to insurance issues. So I ended up asking abou the availability of regular test drives, and he said they had 7,500 people in queue for just the Tesla store where he works! So no chance for me in the short term I guess, but great from an investor´s point of view, no doubt there is increasing demand.

Wow, that almost seems like he must have misspoke. But I hope not.

 

[GoTslaGo]

There was a electromobility promotion event by the city where I live today. Tesla had a car there, too. I tried to talk the representative into giving me a test drive as I haven´t experienced AutoPilot first hand yet, but he said he couldn´t do it there due to insurance issues. So I ended up asking about the availability of regular test drives, and he said they had 7,500 people in queue for just the Tesla store where he works! So no chance for me in the short term I guess, but great from an investor´s point of view, no doubt there is increasing demand.

video in France: Sounds like something similar or regulatory (at 4:50 of the video, subtitled)

 

[mrdoubleb]

video in France: Sounds like something similar or regulatory (at 4:50 of the video, subtitled)

I think that was just because they were not on a highway. Tesla officially does not recommend using AP in city traffic (yet), so obviously their communications director would want to be careful about that in a video....

 

[hobbes]

video in France: Sounds like something similar or regulatory (at 4:50 of the video, subtitled)

I think I wasn´t clear, seems you got me wrong - the Tesla guy didn´t want to give me an impromptu test drive at all, because they were just there to display the car. Had nothing to do with autopilot. Autopilot was just the reason for me to want to test drive again.

In the video, I think Tesla didn´t want to showcase AutoPilot because it was a small road and I think the official language is still that autopilot is for divided roads (though from what I have seen it would most likely have worked there).

 

[hobbes]

Looks like you beat me to it @mrdoubleb !

 

[GoTslaGo]

Thanks for the clarification! Still an amazingly long wait-list!

 

[hobbes]

Wow, that almost seems like he must have misspoke. But I hope not.

Yeah, that crossed my mind also, but that is what I heard. And wouldn´t he usually have invited me for a test drive later? That at least points into the direction that they are overbooked. I could imagine all the PR from Model3 helps interest in Tesla in general. After Germany has been below Tesla´s expectations for Model S orders, I think for Model3 German orders were very high compared to other EU countries if I remember correctly.

 

[Spidy]

Well, I guess this is not going to help demand in the UK and other European countries. Will probably hurt sales quiet a bit, especially since the UK seemed to really get some momentum and make up for lower sales in countries like Norway.

 

[Gerardf]

Well, I guess this is not going to help demand in the UK and other European countries. Will probably hurt sales quiet a bit, especially since the UK seemed to really get some momentum and make up for lower sales in countries like Norway.

The uncertainty does not help of course.

Lets first see what will happen to the UK Pound the comming weeks. Yesterday might very well have been an overreaction. A weaker Pound makes imports more expensive, but will also help their exports. There are also ather factors, e.g. what will happen with British inflation and interest numbers ? That will also have impact on the Pound. this will balance out at some point and nobody knows at what level.

Next to that all imported cars will have the same problem, I have no knowlegde what Model-S competing car models are produced in the UK.

IIRC the UK is a nett oil importer since 2013. In case the Pound stays weak for a longer time their gas prices will go up.

 

[RobStark]

Next to that all imported cars will have the same problem, I have no knowlegde what Model-S competing car models are produced in the UK.

Jaguar XJ made in Birmingham England and some assembled in Pune India.

 

[lklundin]

Jaguar XJ made in Birmingham England and some assembled in Pune India.

BMW has three manufacturing plants in the UK, a (Mini) plant in Oxford, an engine plant in Hams Hall and a stamping facility in Swindon. I am guessing that they also do final assembly, which will help with the tariffs (unless the UK back pedals on invoking article 50, Boris Johnson now thinks there is "no need for haste").

 

[RobStark]

BMW has three manufacturing plants in the UK, a (Mini) plant in Oxford, an engine plant in Hams Hall and a stamping facility in Swindon. I am guessing that they also do final assembly, which will help with the tariffs (unless the UK back pedals on invoking article 50, Boris Johnson now thinks there is "no need for haste").

Gerardf wondered about which UK produced models compete with Model S.

I assume he meant direct competitors since technically all new cars compete indirectly with Model S.

So BMW does not build/produce/assemble the 7 Series or 6 Series Grand Coupe in the UK.

 

[Gerardf]

Gerardf wondered about which UK produced models compete with Model S.
I assume he meant direct competitors since technically all new cars compete indirectly with Model S.
So BMW does not build/produce/assemble the 7 Series or 6 Series Grand Coupe in the UK.

Yes, that is what I meant. Thanks.

Many (almost all ?) of the direct Model-S and -X competitors will have to be imported into the UK as well, like Audi A6, A8 and BMW 7 and Porsche that are probably not produced in UK but in a Euro country. The Euro gained less compared to the UK£ than the US$, but still this helps Tesla.

So IMHO.. don't panic.. UK will keep buying Tesla's. (Where is Johan when you need his avatar )