Hi Eisa,
EAFO numbers are a more than 6 months behind. For example early last month, UK 2015 numbers were still unknown. The estimate on the wiki was 991 units. EAFO was 838 units. If we trusted EAFO and lowered our estimate, it would be even more wrong because two weeks later Gov.uk published the official number as 1470 units. Furthermore, even today EAFO website still reports 838 units for 2015 UK sales. To see this, click
HERE and on the left change country to UK. To see the official number (1470 units) from Gov.uk, click
HERE and download Table VEH0160. Because EAFO has incorrect numbers on their site, it is not a reliable source. Btw, your edit button will be available after a few more messages.
Hi mrco,
Using SMMT numbers for UK estimates is an interesting idea. I've created this table to see if there is some consistency in percentages:
Unfortunately the percentages are not consistent. For example in Q4 2015 SMMT reported 937 units as "Other imports". Later from the Gov UK number we found out that 800 of those were Tesla Model S. That's 85.4%. However in Q2 2015 the percentage was 26.9%. So the percentage of Tesla UK sales within SMMT's Other imports is anywhere between 26.9% to 85.4%. That's not very useful. Said that, I admit there is a huge increase in Q1 2016. It is most likely that again 85% or over of that 1018 number are Teslas. That would mean 1018*0.854= 860 units for Q1 2016 and 290 monthly average. We could switch to SMMT based estimates. We could use the last known percentage to calculate this months data.
Hobbes, what do you think? Stick with Gov.uk based estimates or switch to SMMT? Of course these estimates are there for a few months until the official numbers replace the estimate.