EV Market Share

[jhm]

I have a theory. Those automakers that dominate the EV market will eventually dominate dominate the whole auto market.

What's more, I think the top 5 or 6 EV makers will capture 80% share of the EV market and ultimately 80% of the whole auto industry. This implies substantial consolidation in the auto industry. Right now VW and Toyota compete for top automaker by market share. Each hold about 10%. But my outlook is that Tesla can capture more than 20% of the EV market and hold onto this as EVs squeeze ICE out to the market. Thus, Tesla arrives at 20% share of the whole auto market. But Tesla might not be the only EV maker to follow this path to 20% market share. The critical issue is the pace at which these EV market leaders bring product to market. Those that grow above 50% per year will gain the lion's share of the market.

So who will this top 5 EV market leaders be? That is the topic of this thread.

But first let's see where things stand as of May 2018.
Global Plug-In Electric Car Sales Booming - Market Expands 75%

Can Tesla beat out BYD and when? Will Toyota or Chevrolet ever be able to catch up with the top 3 or even the top 6? Will the gap widen between the top 3 and and the eighth thru tenth? So many questions! This is truly the great EV race.

 

[SteveG3]

Wondering about some terms here,

My take is that ultimately this transition will be to pure BEVs. There may be a period of lots of PHEVs (even if that's not consumers preference, fwiw), but ultimately I see the market going to pure BEVs. To the point of jhm's opening post, I see ICE mfgs who try to slow down their move away from ICE by such a PHEV move as winding up with less of the BEV market to the extent that they play that PHEV stall card.

So, to be clear, are we talking about how the pure BEV market will look if that's where we are heading longer term?

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Can Tesla beat out BYD and when?

I believe they already have.

At the end of June, Tesla had over 70,000 deliveries (29,980 Q1 40,740 Q2). If BYD continued their same pace from Jan-May, they had just over 66,000 deliveries by the end of June.

I don’t have a source for BYD sales numbers, so maybe they’ve accelerated just as fast as Tesla has. But I’d bet Tesla has already surpassed BYD.

 

[jhm]

I believe they already have.

At the end of June, Tesla had over 70,000 deliveries (29,980 Q1 40,740 Q2). If BYD continued their same pace from Jan-May, they had just over 66,000 deliveries by the end of June.

I don’t have a source for BYD sales numbers, so maybe they’ve accelerated just as fast as Tesla has. But I’d bet Tesla has already surpassed BYD.

Yeah, I think Tesla has already passed up BYD, but don't have enough info on BYD to be sure.

In any case, for the first 5 months of the year, BYD is averaging 11k/month and Tesla 10.2k/month. For the second half of the year Tesla add another 20k to 30k to this. So the average for the year will double or triple the current run rate.

It would be a big surprise if any competitor can pull out that much growth in the last half of the year. So I think we'll end the year with Tesla selling about twice as many vehicles as the nearest competitor.

This will really turn heads.

 

[jhm]

Wondering about some terms here,

My take is that ultimately this transition will be to pure BEVs. There may be a period of lots of PHEVs (even if that's not consumers preference, fwiw), but ultimately I see the market going to pure BEVs. To the point of jhm's opening post, I see ICE mfgs who try to slow down their move away from ICE by such a PHEV move as winding up with less of the BEV market to the extent that they play that PHEV stall card.

So, to be clear, are we talking about how the pure BEV market will look if that's where we are heading longer term?

For better or worse, most of the reporting just lump all plugins together. I wish places like Inside EVs would create similar charts that are BEV only, or at least a stacked chart split out BEV and PHEV. But also, reporters will report as they see fit.

A big part of why I want to have this thread is that I think public perception of Tesla will shift as Tesla pulls out from the pack of other EV makers. So what gets published is largely what people see.

Other OEMs have had a headstart on PHEVs in that they already had hybrids with small batteries. Increasing those batteries a little bit and adding charging equipment is a small evolutionary step. It's important because charging from the grid puts gasoline in direct competition with every energy source in the power markets. So this is like the first fish that crawled up on land. But I don't think that PHEVs will ever be more than transitional.

My outlook is that long range (200+ mile) BEVs have started from a smaller base, but will grow at a faster pace than PHEVs and short range BEVs. So they will come into dominance soon and these less advanced species will just keep losing share in the plugin market.

So if one is just a casual observer of EV market share, it has looked like Tesla is just a small player in a pretty wide field dominated by traditional OEMs. But most of these OEMs were only in the market for compliance reasons. Tesla fans have had an uphill battle pointing this out. But it you look under the hood, long range BEVs have what it take to sustain a high growth rate. The field will narrow as compliance cases and lesser species fall off the leaderboard.

As Tesla rises head and shoulders above all but the top 5 EV market leaders, perception will change. Tesla will become an essential investment for any automotive investor simply because it threatens to grab so much market share. Tesla triggers a consolidation in the auto market. At least that's my theory.

 

[winfield100]

here is an up to date (mostly ) list of pure electrics, note: only Tesla and Chevy Bolt are > 200 mile range, rest are basically "city" cars at best

 

[winfield100]

and a list of plug in electrics. note most are barely worth it in terms of electric range, other than the Volt and the BMW i3
http://evadc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EVInfoSheet-20180403.pdf

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It's starting to feel like legacy ICE manufacturers are so tied to the oil industry that their bond will be more powerful than the impulse to adapt and survive. This is a big key to Tesla's future share at scale, the aparent willingness of ICE manufacturers to go down with the ship.

Most legacy car companies don't want the sustainable EV world to exist. Quite a strange dynamic to have an entire industry revolt so violently against the natural inevitable evolution of it's product.

As we've noted, Ford and FCA have already voluntarily stopped selling sedans in this market. That's nuts. What will Ford do when EV trucks start cutting into F150 territory, resist or adapt? I have a guess.

 

[gavine]

So who will this top 5 EV market leaders be? That is the topic of this thread.

Whoever can secure the most supply of batteries. Tesla seems to be in the best position to lead in that regard.

 

[neroden]

BYD has made its biggest progress in the bus market. Unfortunately, I only know the international electric bus manufacturers -- *not* the other Chinese electric bus manufacturers (none of whom sell outside China), who together produce substantially more buses than BYD. This is a market I would love to analyze but I haven't been able to get enough information.

BAIC is a bit of a surprise, but it's coming on strong with a decent-range, OK-volume pure BEV. And I don't think it's just a compliance car. (There are compliance cars in China too.)

 

[SteveG3]

View attachment 320758
here is an up to date (mostly ) list of pure electrics, note: only Tesla and Chevy Bolt are > 200 mile range, rest are basically "city" cars at best

Thanks for posting the chart winfield. The number of 200+ mile pure EVs is so small, it will probably be simple enough for us to tally them up and mark Tesla's percentage of the total. I see that as being over 50% for several years to come, and number one for at least another 6 or 7 years. Even if someone else takes number 1 at that point, I see Tesla continuing with unit sales growth averaging over 30% for many years to come after that.

 

[jhm]

Thanks for posting the chart winfield. The number of 200+ mile pure EVs is so small, it will probably be simple enough for us to tally them up and mark Tesla's percentage of the total. I see that as being over 50% for several years to come, and number one for at least another 6 or 7 years. Even if someone else takes number 1 at that point, I see Tesla continuing with unit sales growth averaging over 30% for many years to come after that.

Short range BEV is a species that can adapt. I expect the Leaf to keep increasing the range over time. Many other models can make the journey from short range to longer range.

It would be nice to know the average kWh per plug-in vehicle by OEM. My basic hypothesis is that this will increase over time. Some EV makers are starting from a much lower average so they will need to increase kWh per veh much faster than others, if they are going to gain EV share. So if you are simultaneously trying to increase volume and kWh per veh, you've got an even tougher ramp up in total GWh per year to gain market share. In this light, Tesla is doing the tough work early on so that they build on a base with the highest kWh per veh in the industry. Tesla Semi will bump this up for Tesla, but beyond that Tesla will not need to play catch up on average kWh/veh. And even starting with long range semis (500+ mile range) positions Tesla to move down market to medium duty trucks over time and not need to increase average kWh per truck.

So I think this is the sort of posturing that makes it so that once Tesla secures a lead position in a particular segment it will be very hard for others to catch up with it. I think Tesla's lead will be quite durable. Chinese EV makers may look strong from a unit sales perspective, but longer term they will have to play catch up on kWh/veh to hold onto their lead.

 

[SteveG3]

Short range BEV is a species that can adapt. I expect the Leaf to keep increasing the range over time. Many other models can make the journey from short range to longer range.

It would be nice to know the average kWh per plug-in vehicle by OEM. My basic hypothesis is that this will increase over time. Some EV makers are starting from a much lower average so they will need to increase kWh per veh much faster than others, if they are going to gain EV share. So if you are simultaneously trying to increase volume and kWh per veh, you've got an even tougher ramp up in total GWh per year to gain market share. In this light, Tesla is doing the tough work early on so that they build on a base with the highest kWh per veh in the industry. Tesla Semi will bump this up for Tesla, but beyond that Tesla will not need to play catch up on average kWh/veh. And even starting with long range semis (500+ mile range) positions Tesla to move down market to medium duty trucks over time and not need to increase average kWh per truck.

So I think this is the sort of posturing that makes it so that once Tesla secures a lead position in a particular segment it will be very hard for others to catch up with it. I think Tesla's lead will be quite durable. Chinese EV makers may look strong from a unit sales perspective, but longer term they will have to play catch up on kWh/veh to hold onto their lead.

Yes, compliance car range vs. 200+ mile range is not only generally an indicator of which automakers want to compete with where the market is going long term (rather than being dragged into that market as slowly as they think they can manage), it is also an indicator of who is positioning themselves to have a competitive scale of battery supply.

 

[winfield100]

Thanks for posting the chart winfield. The number of 200+ mile pure EVs is so small, it will probably be simple enough for us to tally them up and mark Tesla's percentage of the total. I see that as being over 50% for several years to come, and number one for at least another 6 or 7 years. Even if someone else takes number 1 at that point, I see Tesla continuing with unit sales growth averaging over 30% for many years to come after that.

our EV club, EVADC.org did the chart a few years back and update it fairly regularly. they have been around ~40 years.
i just pass along info

 

[winfield100]

Short range BEV is a species that can adapt. I expect the Leaf to keep increasing the range over time. Many other models can make the journey from short range to longer range.

It would be nice to know the average kWh per plug-in vehicle by OEM. My basic hypothesis is that this will increase over time. Some EV makers are starting from a much lower average so they will need to increase kWh per veh much faster than others, if they are going to gain EV share. So if you are simultaneously trying to increase volume and kWh per veh, you've got an even tougher ramp up in total GWh per year to gain market share. In this light, Tesla is doing the tough work early on so that they build on a base with the highest kWh per veh in the industry. Tesla Semi will bump this up for Tesla, but beyond that Tesla will not need to play catch up on average kWh/veh. And even starting with long range semis (500+ mile range) positions Tesla to move down market to medium duty trucks over time and not need to increase average kWh per truck.

So I think this is the sort of posturing that makes it so that once Tesla secures a lead position in a particular segment it will be very hard for others to catch up with it. I think Tesla's lead will be quite durable. Chinese EV makers may look strong from a unit sales perspective, but longer term they will have to play catch up on kWh/veh to hold onto their lead.

Is this what you wanted? (are Hyundai and Kia the same manufacturer?
Pure Electrics kWh

Fiat 500e 24
Honda Clarity Elect. 25.5

Hyundai Ioniq Elect. 28
Kia Soul EV 30

Smart electric 17.6
BMW i3 33
Ford Focus Electric 33.5

VW e-Golf 35.8
Nissan LEAF S 40
Chevy Bolt 60

Tesla Model S 75D 75
Tesla Model X 75D 75
Tesla Model 3 80.5
Tesla Model S 100D 100
Tesla Model X 100D 100

PHEV gas+electric

Audi A3 e-tron 8.8

BMW 330e 7.6
MINI Cooper S E Countr. 7.6
BMW 530e 9.4
BMW 740e 9.2
BMW i3 33.2
BMW i8 11.6
BMW X5 9.2

Cadillac CT6 Plug-In 18.4
Chevy Volt 18.4

Chrysler Pacifica hyb. 16

Ford C-Max Energi 7.6
Ford Fusion Energi 7.6

Honda Clarity PHEV 17

Hyundai Ioniq PHEV 8.9
Hyundai Sonata PHEV 9.8
Kia Niro PHEV 8.9
Kia Optima Plug-In 9.8

Karma Revero 21.4

Mercedes C350e 6.2
Mercedes GLE550e 8.8
Mercedes S550e 8.7

Mitsubishi Outlander 12

Porsche Cayenne 10.8
Porsche Panamera 14.1

Toyota Prius Prime 8.8

Volvo S90 T8 10.4
Volvo XC60 T8 10.4

 

[kbM3]

Yeah, I think Tesla has already passed up BYD, but don't have enough info on BYD to be sure.

In any case, for the first 5 months of the year, BYD is averaging 11k/month and Tesla 10.2k/month. For the second half of the year Tesla add another 20k to 30k to this. So the average for the year will double or triple the current run rate.

It would be a big surprise if any competitor can pull out that much growth in the last half of the year. So I think we'll end the year with Tesla selling about twice as many vehicles as the nearest competitor.

This will really turn heads.

Imagine how much more dominant the comparison would be if we compared EV revenue, instead of number of vehicles

 

[jhm]

Is this what you wanted? (are Hyundai and Kia the same manufacturer?
Pure Electrics kWh

Fiat 500e 24
Honda Clarity Elect. 25.5

Hyundai Ioniq Elect. 28
Kia Soul EV 30

Smart electric 17.6
BMW i3 33
Ford Focus Electric 33.5

VW e-Golf 35.8
Nissan LEAF S 40
Chevy Bolt 60

Tesla Model S 75D 75
Tesla Model X 75D 75
Tesla Model 3 80.5
Tesla Model S 100D 100
Tesla Model X 100D 100

PHEV gas+electric

Audi A3 e-tron 8.8

BMW 330e 7.6
MINI Cooper S E Countr. 7.6
BMW 530e 9.4
BMW 740e 9.2
BMW i3 33.2
BMW i8 11.6
BMW X5 9.2

Cadillac CT6 Plug-In 18.4
Chevy Volt 18.4

Chrysler Pacifica hyb. 16

Ford C-Max Energi 7.6
Ford Fusion Energi 7.6

Honda Clarity PHEV 17

Hyundai Ioniq PHEV 8.9
Hyundai Sonata PHEV 9.8
Kia Niro PHEV 8.9
Kia Optima Plug-In 9.8

Karma Revero 21.4

Mercedes C350e 6.2
Mercedes GLE550e 8.8
Mercedes S550e 8.7

Mitsubishi Outlander 12

Porsche Cayenne 10.8
Porsche Panamera 14.1

Toyota Prius Prime 8.8

Volvo S90 T8 10.4
Volvo XC60 T8 10.4

Wow. That's almost what I want. The next step would be to multiply this times the sales volume and sum up to the OEM level. This would give us sales in kWh, or better yet in MWh or GWh. To get to an OEM average kWh/veh, the next step would be to divide kWh sold by vehicles sole. So the tedious thing here is properly aggregating everything to the OEM level.


Let me guess at this. For Tesla the average is likely near 85 kWh/vehicles. On 51,668 vehicles sold YTD per graphic above, this is 4,392 MWh of EV sales. But for Toyota, they had 20,884 sales with 8.8 kWh/vehicle. This is 184 MWh of EV sales. On vehicle sales, Toyota only need to sell 2.5X more vehicles to catch up with Tesla, but in terms of MWh, they would need to increase MWh sales 24 times the current level.

Certainly Toyota is confident about being able to ramp up new vehicle production, but how are they at ramping up their battery supply chain? Let's suppose Tesla just keep cruising at 50%, Toyota would need to double their battery chain every year for 11 years just to catch up to Tesla. Somehow I just can't see Toyota ramping up that fast. How about they grow their battery supply chain 75% per year? Now it takes them 25 years to catch up to Tesla, but in that time frame Tesla and other EV leaders have already squeezed ICE out of the market. Toyota is locked into a long term share that is just a faction of what Tesla claims by this time.

This is the sort of analysis we could do on all the OEMs. Most of them are so far behind on developing a battery supply chain that they will never be able to defend their current market share of autos. I'm very doubtful that outsourcing battery packs will be a winning strategy. OEMs looking to defend market share will be bidding up battery pack prices against each other. So the pack makers will be making all the profit while dependent OEMs lose market share.

This illustrates one reason why I think that only 5 or 6 EV makers will dominate the EV market. Most automakers are too far behind on battery supply to catch up in time.

 

[gavine]

This is the sort of analysis we could do on all the OEMs. Most of them are so far behind on developing a battery supply chain that they will never be able to defend their current market share of autos. I'm very doubtful that outsourcing battery packs will be a winning strategy. OEMs looking to defend market share will be bidding up battery pack prices against each other. So the pack makers will be making all the profit while dependent OEMs lose market share.

Do you think Tesla will ever supply batteries and/or packs to competing OEM's? Of course, only if Tesla ever gets to the point where they can manufacture a surplus.

 

[jhm]

Do you think Tesla will ever supply batteries and/or packs to competing OEM's? Of course, only if Tesla ever gets to the point where they can manufacture a surplus.

I would not rule it out, but there is an opportunity cost to Tesla is selling automotive power packs decreases supply or demand for Tesla vehicles. Grid batteries are a nice market for extra battery capacity too, but it does not compete with demand opportunities to sell vehicles. So basically, the margins per kWh on selling automotive packs would need to be high enough to cover the opportunity cost.

For example, Tesla can gross about $15k on a Model 3 car with a 80 kWh pack. Suppose Tesla's cost for the pack is $12k ($150/kWh). So Tesla could sell the pack to a competitor for $16k and gross $4k. But this could come at the cost of being able to gross $15k on selling the Model 3. So this is a net opportunity loss of $9k. However, if they could sell the pack for $27k, they would gross $15k and suffer no opportunity loss. Of course, there may be other factors like limited vehicle production or excess battery production capacity that might motivate a price less than $27k, but these factors simply imply that the true opportunity cost is less than $15k.

The point here is that when Tesla has very profitable prospects ahead of it, it would need to ask a very high price for packs to compensate for the missed opportunity. So I don't see this happening much for quite a number of years.

 

[winfield100]

Wow. That's almost what I want. The next step would be to multiply this times the sales volume and sum up to the OEM level. This would give us sales in kWh, or better yet in MWh or GWh. To get to an OEM average kWh/veh, the next step would be to divide kWh sold by vehicles sole. So the tedious thing here is properly aggregating everything to the OEM level.


Let me guess at this. For Tesla the average is likely near 85 kWh/vehicles. On 51,668 vehicles sold YTD per graphic above, this is 4,392 MWh of EV sales. But for Toyota, they had 20,884 sales with 8.8 kWh/vehicle. This is 184 MWh of EV sales. On vehicle sales, Toyota only need to sell 2.5X more vehicles to catch up with Tesla, but in terms of MWh, they would need to increase MWh sales 24 times the current level.

Certainly Toyota is confident about being able to ramp up new vehicle production, but how are they at ramping up their battery supply chain? Let's suppose Tesla just keep cruising at 50%, Toyota would need to double their battery chain every year for 11 years just to catch up to Tesla. Somehow I just can't see Toyota ramping up that fast. How about they grow their battery supply chain 75% per year? Now it takes them 25 years to catch up to Tesla, but in that time frame Tesla and other EV leaders have already squeezed ICE out of the market. Toyota is locked into a long term share that is just a faction of what Tesla claims by this time.

This is the sort of analysis we could do on all the OEMs. Most of them are so far behind on developing a battery supply chain that they will never be able to defend their current market share of autos. I'm very doubtful that outsourcing battery packs will be a winning strategy. OEMs looking to defend market share will be bidding up battery pack prices against each other. So the pack makers will be making all the profit while dependent OEMs lose market share.

This illustrates one reason why I think that only 5 or 6 EV makers will dominate the EV market. Most automakers are too far behind on battery supply to catch up in time.

this? (thru june so Tesla may be a tsd bit higher
Tesla in 2018 3.8 million kilowatt hours
Chevrolet 620 thousand kilowatt hours
etc