I'm curious as to the true EDD status of LR orders post June 1. What I'm trying to figure out is what Tesla is really doing with MYLR orders right now in mid-September. With the vagueness of the start date of Y production in Austin, I think most of the recent LR orders are caught in limbo until Austin comes on line. Many people are seeing their EDDs drop off the face of the earth, either getting pushed back to December, "January," or not having one at all. I personally think that LR orders are not going to be filled in any significant volume until Austin is producing them. It would be great if Tesla would just make an announcement and say, "We are not producing LR Ys at Fremont anymore, only Ps. You won't get your LR until Austin comes on line" rather than just pushing all of the LR orders further and further back. Evidence points that this could possibly be the case but who knows. I'm willing to wait but it would make the waiting so much easier if they let us know what is really going on since MYPs are the only thing that seem to be rolling off the production line in Fremont at the moment. I took the data from the spreadsheet and did a little digging to see the trend of VIN assignment on orders placed since May. Granted, for the data to be accurate, people need to update the spreadsheet but sometimes you have to use the data you have at hand...
Here is the VIN assignment data for MYP and MYLR for orders from May 1 until June 30:
MYP: 77 total orders, 61 VINs, 16 No VIN- 79.2% have VINs, 20.8% do not
MYLR: 735 total orders, 418 VINS, 317 No VIN- 56.9% have VINs, 43.1% do not
Things get interesting in orders from July 1 to August 31
MYP: 147 total orders, 90 VINS, 57 No VIN, 61.2% have VINs, 38.8% do not
MYLR: 327 total orders, 27 VINs, 300 No VIN, 8.3% have VINs, 91.7% do not
We expect a drop in VINs from May and June orders compared to July and August orders because the factory has had more time to manufacture those cars. But the fact is, according to what people are reporting in the spreadsheet, VINs for MYP only dropped by 33% from May-June to June-July while MYLR VINs dropped by 85%. In the past two months, over 62% of new MYP orders have VINs while only 8% of MYLR orders have VINs in the same period. It's as if they've stopped making the MYLR at Fremont. It seems like they have not only been prioritizing MYPs lately (as we know), but also M3LR and M3Ps as well at Fremont because it was only 19 days from order to VIN with my mid-August order for a M3LR. Of course, Tesla is prioritizing their higher margin cars, but my MYLR order is more expensive than my M3LR by $5000. You would think that they would prioritize the MYLR over M3LR as most will likely be more expensive. But then again, the MYLR might not be as profitable as the M3LR at this point. I have no idea of Tesla's profit margins. But the fact remains that MYLR production has seemed to have slowed to an absolute trickle recently. We're in for a long wait, people.
Here is the VIN assignment data for MYP and MYLR for orders from May 1 until June 30:
MYP: 77 total orders, 61 VINs, 16 No VIN- 79.2% have VINs, 20.8% do not
MYLR: 735 total orders, 418 VINS, 317 No VIN- 56.9% have VINs, 43.1% do not
Things get interesting in orders from July 1 to August 31
MYP: 147 total orders, 90 VINS, 57 No VIN, 61.2% have VINs, 38.8% do not
MYLR: 327 total orders, 27 VINs, 300 No VIN, 8.3% have VINs, 91.7% do not
We expect a drop in VINs from May and June orders compared to July and August orders because the factory has had more time to manufacture those cars. But the fact is, according to what people are reporting in the spreadsheet, VINs for MYP only dropped by 33% from May-June to June-July while MYLR VINs dropped by 85%. In the past two months, over 62% of new MYP orders have VINs while only 8% of MYLR orders have VINs in the same period. It's as if they've stopped making the MYLR at Fremont. It seems like they have not only been prioritizing MYPs lately (as we know), but also M3LR and M3Ps as well at Fremont because it was only 19 days from order to VIN with my mid-August order for a M3LR. Of course, Tesla is prioritizing their higher margin cars, but my MYLR order is more expensive than my M3LR by $5000. You would think that they would prioritize the MYLR over M3LR as most will likely be more expensive. But then again, the MYLR might not be as profitable as the M3LR at this point. I have no idea of Tesla's profit margins. But the fact remains that MYLR production has seemed to have slowed to an absolute trickle recently. We're in for a long wait, people.
