Figuring Out What Is Really Happening With MYLR Orders At This Moment

[Starway2001]

I ordered a MYP on October 14th and have an EDD of "November 27th - December 25th".

I have to say that Tesla customer service has been awful at communicating with me. They sent me an email asking for my order number, but since I've responded a week ago with questions and my response, they've not responded to me. I sent the email to two different people at my local Tesla, but nothing back in a week after three emails.

Is this normal?

Tesla is an interesting dichotomy. The back of the house is doing amazing innovative work worthy of admiration. And the front of the house… just sucks … the worst customer service experience on the planet. It’s almost like they’re annoyed they need customers in the first place. We’re a pestilence.

Notice on every earnings call they never discuss their customers or their customer stories? They act like theyre the only ones suffering through the part shortages - that we should feel bad for them - when in fact THEY should feel bad for US!

 

[Michael Y 2020]

Oh good grief, now it’s back to Nov 13 - Dec 11. Are these dates determined by guys throwing darts at a board?

Read your oder agreement, 2nd page, 2nd to last paragraph. Once August orders start receiving their VINs, I'll be excited; my OD is 9/8.

 

[Vaildriver]

Read your oder agreement, 2nd page, 2nd to last paragraph. Once August orders start receiving their VINs, I'll be excited; my OD is 9/8.

His point isn't that your EDD is an estimate, it's the fact that there is so much movement with each individual order. There has to be a plan for production, both in quantity and builds that would lend some stability within these orders. Some people are jumping from November to March and then back within a week or two. That level of variability is questionable to say the least.

 

[scoobybri]

I'm starting to feel that the EDDs are not really just a computer algorithm, but actually human controlled at the top level. There are likely reports that show the quantities of different models with various combinations of colors and options. Maybe the system lumps together like orders so that someone can decide when to build those cars in the most efficient/profitable manner. Whomever is scheduling production looks at those reports and makes overall decisions of what groups of models/colors/options fit into the production schedule, based on order dates, parts availability, efficiency of changing paint colors, etc. Those productions runs are then plugged into the schedule. Likely, Tesla has a much narrower EDD for any particular car for their factory schedule than we see. That gives them a lot of leeway in moving things around as they receive/run out of parts, or change priorities due to producing higher profit vehicles as new orders come in for those cars. (i.e. Lots of new MYP orders come in so they push out some MYLR orders a bit.)

It also seems to me that while production runs for model/color/options do come in batches, Tesla's production system has a "black hole" into which some people's orders seem to fall into. There always seems to be a few people waiting months later than others who had similar order dates and options. This is where I think the human factor comes in. As Tesla shuffles around production according to whatever priorities they have that week (or day), a few orders seem to move out of the production batches get lost until Tesla finds a place to squeeze those orders back in, sometime much later. Probably, they ran out of parts for the build or they needed to spit out some MS Plaids, so they move some orders out of the production queue where they sit until someone notices these orphaned orders and puts them back into the queue.

The real insanity of EDDs lately is coming from the volitivity of parts availability, the huge influx of new orders mainly due to people wanting what is becoming more difficult to buy, and the unknown start date of Austin (as well as how gradual the ramp up there will be.) I think that other than the next 2 months or so, they have no idea how many MYLRs they will be able to produce going into Q1 and Q2 of 2022. I think that they thought Austin would be online much earlier than reality so they are scrambling to schedule as much as they can from Fremont in the near term. As we get further into the future, there are too many unknowns to give orders a realistic EDD. That's why we are seeing people with Jan EDDs suddenly seeing dates like April. Tesla is likely shuffling the schedule at Fremont to take on production originally thought to be coming from Austin which is causing order times get pushed back. Not that they will stay that way, but it looks like they would rather reschedule certain production runs way out into the future until they can get a handle on what production is going to look like in the first part of 2022. Basically putting them "on hold" (but with a far out EDD) until they can figure out a realistic schedule in 2022. It sucks and its ugly at the moment, but I think that EDDs will move back to more realistic (earlier) dates as they get a handle on Austin's going online and how fast the ramp up for production there can happen.

 

[Vaildriver]

In the meantime, Rivian has ramped up to 2 trucks/day.

Rivian Has Built 56 R1Ts As Of October 22 Or Two Vehicles A Day

An amendment to the S-1 filed by Rivian with the SEC reveals very low numbers for the R1T electric pickup during the first month of production.

insideevs.com

 

[Apathy]

Well, while my EDD remains the same since my order two weeks ago for the MYP, I am still awaiting a VIN. I have been trying to use the view source method for discovering if the VIN has been assigned by searching for 5YJ or EncodedVIN, but nothing yet. Meanwhile, my Tesla weather tech mats and fobs and mud flaps are all awaiting a car now. I'm in new york, so if I don't get the car within a month of the original EDD, I can get a refund for the order, but I want the car, so.... lots of good that does me!

Also, do I have to keep resubmitting my car for an updated trade-in value every month until I take delivery of my new car?

 

[Michael Y 2020]

His point isn't that your EDD is an estimate, it's the fact that there is so much movement with each individual order. There has to be a plan for production, both in quantity and builds that would lend some stability within these orders. Some people are jumping from November to March and then back within a week or two. That level of variability is questionable to say the least.

I appreciate your clarification/input on someone's else's thoughts. Guess I'm in the 'boat' that since I ordered a recliner in April and every month or so it gets pushed back another month due to logistical challenges, I can wait for a more complex order. I am still waiting for the recliner. The EDD is only an estimate and as such it will change. Guess people would be *itching if they didn't receive their EDD, then *itching that it changes. Hang in their folks it'll get better, just not today or tomorrow.

 

[Vladimir*22]

Well, while my EDD remains the same since my order two weeks ago for the MYP, I am still awaiting a VIN. I have been trying to use the view source method for discovering if the VIN has been assigned by searching for 5YJ or EncodedVIN, but nothing yet. Meanwhile, my Tesla weather tech mats and fobs and mud flaps are all awaiting a car now. I'm in new york, so if I don't get the car within a month of the original EDD, I can get a refund for the order, but I want the car, so.... lots of good that does me!

Also, do I have to keep resubmitting my car for an updated trade-in value every month until I take delivery of my new car?

"Also, do I have to keep resubmitting my car for an updated trade-in value every month until I take delivery of my new car?" - I put no trade in and the SA told me once I get a VIN to come in and do the trade in - I was told expect at least 6 months to get car so I am not stressed I will get the car when i get it.

 

[Stook02ss]

I can't help but wonder if it has something to do with moving to 4680s and ramping up production in Austin.

 

[Vladimir*22]

I can't help but wonder if it has something to do with moving to 4680s and ramping up production in Austin.

as far as Austin - I don't expect that for awhile. there is a YouTube channel dedicated to that facility. The guy does drone footage almost every week and as of the 17th they are still missing outside walls and mostly everything around it is dirt. I think I read somewhere the Batteries are going to be used mostly to get the Semi up and running and since Pepsi just ordered 100 of them they might already be behind. Plus I also read that the new batteries aren't really going to do much for the cars at first because they are just going to be able to use less to get the same range so that save them money, but again with Tesla everything is speculation.

My thought is that they are expecting all the orders on hold to be released Jan 1 after the tax credits, if they pass and with Manchin has already said that the $4500 union made incentive is a deal breaker for him we will see. WV is supposed to get a non-union Toyota factory so he has a reason to fight it. Also Canada is going to file a complaint since it breaks the US - Mexico - Canada trade agreement so who knows what we will get. From what I've seen on other forums - that once the hold is released they get the next car that matches their build that might be why the EDD are so long.

 

[Stook02ss]

as far as Austin - I don't expect that for awhile. there is a YouTube channel dedicated to that facility. The guy does drone footage almost every week and as of the 17th they are still missing outside walls and mostly everything around it is dirt. I think I read somewhere the Batteries are going to be used mostly to get the Semi up and running and since Pepsi just ordered 100 of them they might already be behind. Plus I also read that the new batteries aren't really going to do much for the cars at first because they are just going to be able to use less to get the same range so that save them money, but again with Tesla everything is speculation.

My thought is that they are expecting all the orders on hold to be released Jan 1 after the tax credits, if they pass and with Manchin has already said that the $4500 union made incentive is a deal breaker for him we will see. WV is supposed to get a non-union Toyota factory so he has a reason to fight it. Also Canada is going to file a complaint since it breaks the US - Mexico - Canada trade agreement so who knows what we will get. From what I've seen on other forums - that once the hold is released they get the next car that matches their build that might be why the EDD are so long.

Yeah, that wouldn't surprise me. That said, I do recall hearing something about them starting production before they had even finished the factory, that the Model Y line was the priority and that they'd finish the semi and CT lines after they got it up and running.

If the price doesn't go up, I may place another MYP order next month... wait a 4-6 weeks or so and then ask to put it on hold. I doubt I'll get a 4680, but that should put my delivery date in the April, perhaps even May timeframe. Again, unlikely I'll get a 4680, but at least I'll have a shot... or have held out long enough to hear the latest gossip lol. I just have this feeling the MYP price is gonna move up by $2-3k even if the LR stays the same... its just a matter of time, especially if they give it 4680s. My guess is that around then they'll also give it some other minor facelift items and perhaps even increase the power - there's already some stiff competition on the horizon!