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Finalizing CPO 85 purchase / recent experiences? Mixed reviews. Help me decide, I'll buy you a beer.

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It'll be a smoother ride. I have the coils and very much disliked the feel of the air suspension during high speed turns, particularly during direction changes. Many like it, though, and the general consensus is that it was vastly improved on cars produced after the D announcement (which I don't think are any of these). I never felt like I really needed it, though I do generally need to be careful with inclines or it scrapes slightly. Then I moved and my driveway is REALLY steep, so it's tricky backing it out. Doable, but tricky.

Right around when mine was made was when the issues started getting sorted out. From what I've seen I kind of have an outlier and more problems than most. The nice thing about it being a CPO is that anything that comes up is covered for many years yet. But it's undoubtedly a hassle to get it into the SC for repair. If reducing the chance of visiting the SC is worth that $6k to you, I think you've narrowed your list to two (I'd kick out the high-mileage black 45xxx because of this position on the SC visits).

Just to add .02. I actually prefer the air suspension feel. Granted I got the P85+ so it has a different feel than standard air suspension as well as different than the springs only. While it's not as big of an issue for you, ride height is for me. I like to keep the car at a low ride height when possible, but there are times when snow here can be a hinderance and in my A8 I used this quite often to make winter driving easier. So I would say the height adjustment could be a consideration if the ride quality isn't as much of a concern.
 
A couple of additional thoughts:

1) I would worry more about the VIN than mileage if it came down to it.
2) Try to find an OA that is actually helpful. I've had a subpar experience with local people in the Bay Area, other areas are better. The reason I am saying that is that there are instances were not all cars are listed on the public facing site and insiders have visibility into what's coming up.
3) ev-cpo.com:
3-1It has better search features (ie more granular) than Tesla's own site, so this helps narrowing down your options.
3-2 You actually get more search parameters available by creating an account on the site (w/o paying for any kind of subscription). You get even more features if you subscribe (monthly sub are a couple of $/mo.
3-3 It also shows pricing history for a given car so you get to see which car has been sitting for a while/is seeing price decreases. (free)
3-4 You can build custom graphs to the price history of specific configurations over time. (free)

I'll take a cold Fat Tire :)