...I am thinking of leasing a Model X...
...new Model X....which is the best option - buy or lease....
...would like to know if it makes sense to buy or lease a MX...
...buy or lease a new model X Raven...?
Just some of the recent OPs on what is clearly an important topic. So let’s run some (back-of-the-envelope) numbers (using the Tesla.com website payment calculator). As a working example, assume:
- 2020 extended range Model X (acquired in the USA)
- w/standard options:..................................$84,990
- full self-driving option:..................................$7,000
- Subtotal:.........................................$91,990
- Dest. & doc. fees:.........................................$1,200
- Subtotal:.........................................$93,190
- (Cal state) Sales Tax (@7.5%):.....................$6,900
- Total:.............................................$100,090
- Outright purchase (w/$100 order fee):..............$100,190
- Auto loan. Assume:
- Loan by Tesla
- Down payment (DP):.................................$23,000
- Financed amount (FA):..............................$70,190
- APR:...............................................................3.5%
- Term (minimum):.........................................5 years
- Destination & doc. fees (DF):........................$1,200
- Order fee (OF):...............................................$100
- (Calif. 7.5%) State sales tax (TX):..................$6,900
- Monthly loan payment (P+I):........................$1,277
- Total (60 payments+DP+DF+OF+TX):.......$107,819
- Cost per year (for 5 years):.........................$21,564
- Auto lease. Assume:
- Maximum down payment (DP)....................$23,471
- Maximum annual miles:.................................15,000
- Acquisition fee (AF):.........................................$695
- Due at signing (DP+1st pay.+AF):................$24,942
- Maximum term:............................................3 years
- Monthly lease payment (LP):...........................$776
- Total (36 payments+DP+AF):......................$52,102
- Cost per year (for 3 years):..........................$17,367
According to these figures, after recouping some money by selling their used car, people who purchase outright may ultimately expend about $35,000 for the privilege of owning a Model X for three years. (Of course this does not include electricity for charging, maintenance, repairs, insurance, accessories, and other expenses.) Those who finance their purchase may spend a little more: about $42,000 for that same period of ownership. In comparison, people who lease spend the most--around $50,000--for approximately the same experience, but without financial obligations after three years.
OK, assuming these numbers hold what do people think of the conclusions?* (I myself need some time to mull this over.)
Its a sizeable jump from $35,000 to $52,000. But many people probably finance their purchase, and the increase from $42,000 to $52,000 (over three years) does not seem quite so off-putting.
As others point out, what makes the Tesla as a consumer retail product so fascinating (but also confounding), is fairly continuous, unanticipated upgrades (via software) and improvements (to future cars). That's fun, but it makes acquisition planning all the more difficult (like buying an expensive, feature-packed smartphone on wheels).
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* Now before you barrage me with indignant, corrective postings that rail against perceived erroneous values and omissions, I freely acknowledge that I probably included:
- numerical errors,
- gross approximations and estimates (like the value of 3-year-old Model X),
- critical assumptions (e.g., that a used car will sell for that amount), and
- numbers that will in fact vary significantly case by case (e.g., by state, nation, and individual customer)
or failed to account for certain important financial considerations (What are they?). For example, I did not check to see if there is a significant penalty for ending a Tesla loan two years early. (I need to ask about that.) Also, what about income tax considerations if people withdraw the entire purchase price from a previously tax-exempt (e.g., retirement) account?
Also I did not include non-financial pros and cons like the ability to customize a purchased car. I think I am hearing that there are certain features that you can not have on a leased car?
Regardless, to determine the usefulness of these figures consider the (a) accuracy of the orders of magnitude (Are the figures in the ballpark?) and (b) conformity, consistency, and comparability among the three option calculations. (Also, it may be worthwhile to alert new buyers and leasees to "hidden" amounts that can be revealed at signing time.)
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