The IMF has
pegged breakeven at $80-85/barrel for the Saudi's to breakeven. Probably a generous estimate considering their 2019 budget is projected to rise 13% over 2018 to $295B. Then there's the off-budget war in Yemen.
US shale production growth shows no signs of slowing and is eat up all marketshare left hanging by OPEC+R production cuts. With rumblings of discontent in Russia, this minimal level of cooperation may not even last until the summer. We should start to see "every gal for herself" behavior from oil producing nations as even they acquiesce to the reality of near term peak oil demand. That could drive brent even lower for 2019/20.
The IPO has failed. The $40B bond issuance to "buy" SABIC was initially
rejected by US/global banks and is still teetering. The $10B effort to
diversify the Saudi economy into finance has failed completely due to lack of interest....and that was before they kidnapped every wealthy Saudi in a
$100B shakedown.
If bond issuance isn't an option past this time next year, and domestic discontent requires more and more spending, what's the next step?