Found a LOT of Model 3's in a Tesla lot - Pictures inside

[Reddy Kilowatt]

Was there a driver at the wheel?

Funny yes but you made go back and look. I started to think could they platoon, given the string of cars in the last shot. It’s dark but you can see a hand on the wheel on the third car turning left. The X must be the ride back to the line for the next batch of 3’s.

 

[RedOctober]

Funny yes but you made go back and look. I started to think could they platoon, given the string of cars in the last shot. It’s dark but you can see a hand on the wheel on the third car turning left. The X must be the ride back to the line for the next batch of 3’s.

Your comment go me thinking. I wonder if they could program the cars to follow one driven car out of the factory to a designated row in the lot. Maybe 5-6 cars pull into a row each time. Would sure cut back on drivers.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Your comment go me thinking. I wonder if they could program the cars to follow one driven car out of the factory to a designated row in the lot. Maybe 5-6 cars pull into a row each time. Would sure cut back on drivers.

If they're producing ~500 cars a day, assuming an 8-10 hr day for someone to drive those cars to the lot, it's a 50-60 car/hr pace. I think a crew of 10-15 people can probably handle that. That's ~$1m/yr of labor. Maybe not worth over-engineering autonomous method at this point?

 

[Reddy Kilowatt]

Yes but if there developing Plattoon for the semi, could they beta test it on the 3 in transport mode. Kill the feature once transport mode is disabled.

Might be why they added the lines in the parking lot.

 

[israndy]

there ≠ they are

 

[wdolson]

As for the "stockpiling" situation. The word "stockpile" has a connotation here that I don't think is accurate. I think people are thinking that they are going to park the whole lot of stockpiled vehicles in a single lot either in Fremont, or Oakland, or Sparks. If in fact that's what Tesla is doing (and I think they are), that is definitely not how they would do it. They would distribute those vehicles around the country to delivery hubs and centers close to or at the locations of final delivery so that they are sitting there ready to be delivered that first week of July. Not only does this expedite the delivery process for all those folks that got the "July" e-mail, but it also means they don't have to lease a giant parking lot or store cars in the middle of the desert for 4 weeks.

I've run the numbers and to defer to 200K until July means they will have to ship about 10K Model 3's to Canada and "store" 12K Model 3's around the US. But I really think those are going to be spread across the whole country, so you end up with only 100 at each delivery center on average.

Yes, that's still a huge number and probably far exceeds the capacity at most delivery centers. Each delivery center might have to arrange for some offsite parking. Or not. The Charlotte, NC delivery center (located at a former dealership) for example can hold over 250 vehicles parked in the spots and could easily store 300+ if they park in the aisles. I'm not in Charlotte, but if I was looking for a LOT of Model 3s, that's one place I would look. We should all have our eyes open for these kinds of lots.

As for whether it makes business sense for Tesla to do this...well perhaps off-topic for this thread, but you better believe it makes sense!

First of all, even if they push ahead and not defer until 3Q, they will probably not be profitable in 2Q anyway. On the other hand, they can make a good case for WHY their numbers look the way they do in 2Q by stating what will probably be a massive "12,000 vehicles in transit". The smart investor (and note that this group does not include your classic shorts, but I think even most of them will see what's going on) will realize that the 2Q sales were simply deferred a few weeks into 3Q, so as much as they love quarterly results, they know the revenue will soon be realized and it is practically immaterial to the financial health of the company. PLUS, it sets them up to practically guarantee a profitable 3Q because all that revenue will be claimed in that quarter. It's a bit of a smoke and mirrors play and not sustainable, but while the ramp still continues, it will certainly guarantee getting them over the transitional quarter. And if that weren't enough of a business reason, look ahead to when the tax credit does expire. At this point, Tesla will face a price headwind against the competition. If they don't defer, the headwind will be an additional 1 quarter than if they don't defer. In the grand scheme, I suppose 3 months isn't going to make a huge difference, but in business, every advantage helps.

There are various places they can stash cars. Car shipment centers have large lots for storing cars. They could stash cars there. I do think they will be stashing cars about anywhere they can. They will fill up the local delivery centers first, then any regional space they can get, and finally will be stashing cars at other Tesla properties. The Gigafactory is a good place to do it, the entire property has a security fence and guards 24/7. It looks like they just paved a large area that is rumored to be the new employee lot. I think they plan to stash some of the excess inventory there. That could just be cars destined for western deliveries in July.

I highly doubt Tesla will ever bankrupt another automaker. There are OEM's and other Automakers that are gaining far more knowledge of EV's than Tesla and can make this technology available quickly if needed. The disadvantage Tesla has is mass production ability. Being easier to design and produce may put intense pressure on Tesla to ever become profitable. The battery technology is from Panasonic, Telsa does not have a monopoly with Panasonic.

I expect Tesla's disruption of the industry will probably bankrupt some car companies. Fiat-Chysler is woefully unprepared to go electric. They have a few electrics and hybrids that are mostly compliance cars, but they are trying to milk as much as they can out of ICE before the CAFE standards make ICE muscle cars impossible.

A lot of companies have been working on EVs, but they are all low production cars. The key thing everybody needs to build EVs in quantity is a massive supply of batteries and only one company has that. There are some companies working on securing a large enough supply to mass produce EVs, but it will be 2-4 years before they will be anywhere near where the Model 3 is now. Most of the European countries are making big predictions about how they are going to mass produce EVs, but if you look at their dates, most are saying around 2025. That's 7 years from now. Where was Tesla 7 years ago? Even if Tesla evolves at 1/4 the rate they did over the last 7 years, by 2025 they will be well entrenched as the biggest EV maker in the world in both volume and assets.

Panasonic does make batteries for Tesla, but they don't own the chemistry they are making for Tesla. Tesla owns it. Tesla would probably be open to licensing the tech, but then that means Tesla makes money on everyone elses EV sale. But other companies believe they have a secret sauce better than Tesla's so it's doubtful they will ever want to license from Tesla. And even if someone did approach Panasonic for batteries, Panasonic doesn't have the capacity right now. Over 99% of Panasonic's battery production capacity is dedicated to Tesla. If Tesla switches the Model S and X to Gigafactory produced 2170 cells, that will free up some capacity in Asia that's currently making 18650s. If someone contracts with Panasonic to make batteries there, it won't be Tesla's chemistry and might be a good start for someone, but Panasonic's Asian production capacity is only good for about 100K long range EVs a year. Maybe 120K with smaller packs than the S/X. That's better than anyone but Tesla is doing today, but it won't compete with the Model 3 cranking out over 500K a year.

If public demand flips and they want EVs soon, Tesla is the only company that can make more than about 50-100K EVs a year. For most car companies 100K production is fairly low volume. Especially for a mid-priced car aimed at the general public. In 1992 Buick made about 96K Roadmasters. (I had one and it was an excellent car for the era, but I rarely saw another one on the road.) Today Chevy makes about 40K Corvettes a year. For 2017 the 25th best selling car in the world was the Mercedes C-class which sold just shy of 500K cars. The Toyota Corolla sold just shy of 1 million and was #2 behind the Ford F-series pickups.

And someone taking Panasonic's excess capacity only allows 1 car maker to make 100K EVs. What do the rest do?

When public demand for EVs ramp up, everyone except Tesla will be scrambling to get access to enough batteries to be able to produce cars. Hyundai is already running into problems with the Ioniq. They had to stop production of the BEV version because they can't get enough batteries.

 

[kengchang]

If Tesla switches the Model S and X to Gigafactory produced 2170 cells, that will free up some capacity in Asia that's currently making 18650s. If someone contracts with Panasonic to make batteries there, it won't be Tesla's chemistry and might be a good start for someone, but Panasonic's Asian production capacity is only good for about 100K long range EVs a year. Maybe 120K with smaller packs than the S/X. That's better than anyone but Tesla is doing today, but it won't compete with the Model 3 cranking out over 500K a year.

Is anyone using cylindrical battery other than Tesla? IIRC most if not all of them use pouch cell.

 

[VRM3]

I think people are thinking that they are going to park the whole lot of stockpiled vehicles in a single lot either in Fremont, or Oakland, or Sparks. If in fact that's what Tesla is doing (and I think they are), that is definitely not how they would do it. They would distribute those vehicles around the country to delivery hubs and centers close to or at the locations of final delivery so that they are sitting there ready to be delivered that first week of July.
.

The massive amount of 3’s parked at an overfill lot at the Burbank airport for the last 3-4 weeks would seem to support your thesis. Just one data point but it seems plausible.

 

[dc_h]

There are various places they can stash cars. Car shipment centers have large lots for storing cars. They could stash cars there. I do think they will be stashing cars about anywhere they can. They will fill up the local delivery centers first, then any regional space they can get, and finally will be stashing cars at other Tesla properties. The Gigafactory is a good place to do it, the entire property has a security fence and guards 24/7. It looks like they just paved a large area that is rumored to be the new employee lot. I think they plan to stash some of the excess inventory there. That could just be cars destined for western deliveries in July.



I expect Tesla's disruption of the industry will probably bankrupt some car companies. Fiat-Chysler is woefully unprepared to go electric. They have a few electrics and hybrids that are mostly compliance cars, but they are trying to milk as much as they can out of ICE before the CAFE standards make ICE muscle cars impossible.

A lot of companies have been working on EVs, but they are all low production cars. The key thing everybody needs to build EVs in quantity is a massive supply of batteries and only one company has that. There are some companies working on securing a large enough supply to mass produce EVs, but it will be 2-4 years before they will be anywhere near where the Model 3 is now. Most of the European countries are making big predictions about how they are going to mass produce EVs, but if you look at their dates, most are saying around 2025. That's 7 years from now. Where was Tesla 7 years ago? Even if Tesla evolves at 1/4 the rate they did over the last 7 years, by 2025 they will be well entrenched as the biggest EV maker in the world in both volume and assets.

Panasonic does make batteries for Tesla, but they don't own the chemistry they are making for Tesla. Tesla owns it. Tesla would probably be open to licensing the tech, but then that means Tesla makes money on everyone elses EV sale. But other companies believe they have a secret sauce better than Tesla's so it's doubtful they will ever want to license from Tesla. And even if someone did approach Panasonic for batteries, Panasonic doesn't have the capacity right now. Over 99% of Panasonic's battery production capacity is dedicated to Tesla. If Tesla switches the Model S and X to Gigafactory produced 2170 cells, that will free up some capacity in Asia that's currently making 18650s. If someone contracts with Panasonic to make batteries there, it won't be Tesla's chemistry and might be a good start for someone, but Panasonic's Asian production capacity is only good for about 100K long range EVs a year. Maybe 120K with smaller packs than the S/X. That's better than anyone but Tesla is doing today, but it won't compete with the Model 3 cranking out over 500K a year.

If public demand flips and they want EVs soon, Tesla is the only company that can make more than about 50-100K EVs a year. For most car companies 100K production is fairly low volume. Especially for a mid-priced car aimed at the general public. In 1992 Buick made about 96K Roadmasters. (I had one and it was an excellent car for the era, but I rarely saw another one on the road.) Today Chevy makes about 40K Corvettes a year. For 2017 the 25th best selling car in the world was the Mercedes C-class which sold just shy of 500K cars. The Toyota Corolla sold just shy of 1 million and was #2 behind the Ford F-series pickups.

And someone taking Panasonic's excess capacity only allows 1 car maker to make 100K EVs. What do the rest do?

When public demand for EVs ramp up, everyone except Tesla will be scrambling to get access to enough batteries to be able to produce cars. Hyundai is already running into problems with the Ioniq. They had to stop production of the BEV version because they can't get enough batteries.

Another reason to keep using 18650’s on the S/X. Maximize profits for Panasonic and keep the market to yourself. The industry had access to the top secret plan 10 years ago and the updated top secret plan for another 3 years and is still spotting Tesla another 5-7 years lead with no chance of scaling until 2022-2025.

 

[wdolson]

No, I think he just listed 5 different examples of batteries (and that is another point that I think is confusing, but I'll get to that in a minute). It just so happens that 4 of them happen to be 1.5V and 1 9V. And unfortunately for his example, the 4 1.5V examples are what he called cells, and the 9V a battery. But it's not the voltage that he was using as a differentiator, but rather the fact that if you rip open a 9V battery, you will actually find 6 little cells inside strung together in series. I admit he should have been a bit more explicit in his explanation if he was going to use this example, as most people don't know that fact about 9V batteries.

Anyway, the other point about the term "battery" vs. "cell" (and again, this is being highly pedantic) is that by the strict technical definition, I suppose a battery could consist of a single cell, so it could be appropriate to call a single AA cell a "battery", but it would not be accurate to call a 9V battery a cell, because technically it's not. Kind of like a square/rectangle thing (i.e. all squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares). And really, it doesn't matter anyway because the common use of the word battery includes AA, AAA, C and D cells as well as 16850 and 2170 cells. So Panasonic is not incorrect to use that terminology when speaking to anyone but battery engineers.

The term "battery" for a single DC cell is something that has evolved over time. Originally they were known as galvanic or volta cells. A collection of cells was called a battery of cells, which derived from the term for a concentration of artillery: a battery. Over time single cells got called batteries, though technically it's not correct.

However, single cells are not all 1.5V. The voltage depends on the chemistry. It just happens that many of the chemistries we used through the 20th century were all in the 1.5V range. Alkaline and Zinc-carbon are both very close to 1.5V. Fresh alkaline are a little more than 1.5V. Lead-acid cells are around 2V. NiCads are around 1.2V.

Li-ion chemistries are usually much higher voltages per cell. Li-ion is more a class of battery than one chemistry. The cells Tesla uses are around 4V fully charged, but drop to about 3.7-3.8V early in the discharge cycle and stays there until the battery gets close to depletion.

 

[wdolson]

Is anyone using cylindrical battery other than Tesla? IIRC most if not all of them use pouch cell.

I don't know what the new European cars are planning to use, but I believe Tesla is the only company using them in production.

Another reason to keep using 18650’s on the S/X. Maximize profits for Panasonic and keep the market to yourself. The industry had access to the top secret plan 10 years ago and the updated top secret plan for another 3 years and is still spotting Tesla another 5-7 years lead with no chance of scaling until 2022-2025.

If Tesla wanted to keep importing cells, the smart move would be to have Panasonic convert its overseas plants to 2170s for the Model S/X or some other vehicle projects. It looks like Tesla's next factory will be in China and that will have its own battery plant adjacent.

Elon has never been all that concerned about competition. When Tesla was still a fledgling he made noises that he would be perfectly happy with the entire industry going electric and putting Tesla out of business. He also has no trouble sharing the supercharger network as long as other companies pay their own way.

I'm sure if they did concentrate cell production for the S/X at the GF1 and cut the Panasonic plants overseas loose, he wouldn't have any trouble if someone came in and started utilizing the space for their own cars. A car from a competitor that can only be built at 100K volume would probably help Tesla more than it would hurt. All the new EVs are being compared to Tesla's current offerings and many people considering an EV who sees the comparison will probably check out Tesla to see what all the hype is about. Even if something like the Jaguar iPace becomes a hit, they will be limited by battery supply and would be customers of the competition will look at their first choice can see a 1+ year wait, or a month or so for a Tesla. Many will choose the Tesla.

At this point nobody is going to leap frog Tesla on the tech by any measurable degree. There will be some nice features on the competition that Tesla doesn't have and the European EVs, especially the first will probably be more luxurious, but where it comes to the important things: range, charging, driving experience, the best anyone can hope for is to match Tesla and some will inevitably miss on their first try.

The biggest limitation for Tesla for market penetration is public ignorance. A poll last year found something like 60% of Americans knew little or nothing about EVs. A lot of people had heard of Tesla, but didn't really know anything about the company. People are bombarded with ads for ICE from traditional car companies, but while Tesla has done the occasional ad (I did see one in a magazine once), they do almost no advertising. Their reputation comes from word of mouth and the media.

Among those 60% who don't know much about EVs, they think golf carts, not fully functional family cars that are better than anything they've ever owned, as well as being cheaper to drive. If the market starts filling up with long range EVs and the public starts learning about them, considering where Tesla is vs the competition, it can do nothing but help Tesla.

 

[mikeywarka]

i need my fix!!!

 

[egggg]

Here, read this instead. Pictures of inside the factory.

Inside Tesla’s Model 3 Factory

 

[augkuo]

6/8/18 around 9:00am - 3 car carriers loading, lot is pretty full except to make room for the car carriers. Looks like the new line (housed at the temp building by thr north lot) is working. As for wrapping fully or not, most of these cars are just going to Richmond or other staging areas whereas some are actually going long-distance to their final destinations. I’m also not going to be at my Fremont office as frequently so sorry if the lot pics will be more infrequent.

 

[T34ME]

At the end of "configuration" , you are asked: "Is this car a present, if so, do you want it gift-wrapped?" I believe in July, the wrap will be red, white, and blue.

I disagree. You are asked, "do you want it for here, or to go."

 

[Twiglett]

View attachment 307831 View attachment 307832 View attachment 307833 View attachment 307834 View attachment 307835 View attachment 307836 View attachment 307837 View attachment 307838 View attachment 307839 6/8/18 around 9:00am - 3 car carriers loading, lot is pretty full except to make room for the car carriers. Looks like the new line (housed at the temp building by thr north lot) is working. As for wrapping fully or not, most of these cars are just going to Richmond or other staging areas whereas some are actually going long-distance to their final destinations. I’m also not going to be at my Fremont office as frequently so sorry if the lot pics will be more infrequent.

Thanks for everything you’ve been doing so far
Sadly if you’re posting fewer pictures the battery pedants will get going again

 

[plankeye]

Surely somebody else lives in that area, don't they?

 

[dc_h]

I don't know what the new European cars are planning to use, but I believe Tesla is the only company using them in production.



If Tesla wanted to keep importing cells, the smart move would be to have Panasonic convert its overseas plants to 2170s for the Model S/X or some other vehicle projects. It looks like Tesla's next factory will be in China and that will have its own battery plant adjacent.

Elon has never been all that concerned about competition. When Tesla was still a fledgling he made noises that he would be perfectly happy with the entire industry going electric and putting Tesla out of business. He also has no trouble sharing the supercharger network as long as other companies pay their own way.

I'm sure if they did concentrate cell production for the S/X at the GF1 and cut the Panasonic plants overseas loose, he wouldn't have any trouble if someone came in and started utilizing the space for their own cars. A car from a competitor that can only be built at 100K volume would probably help Tesla more than it would hurt. All the new EVs are being compared to Tesla's current offerings and many people considering an EV who sees the comparison will probably check out Tesla to see what all the hype is about. Even if something like the Jaguar iPace becomes a hit, they will be limited by battery supply and would be customers of the competition will look at their first choice can see a 1+ year wait, or a month or so for a Tesla. Many will choose the Tesla.

At this point nobody is going to leap frog Tesla on the tech by any measurable degree. There will be some nice features on the competition that Tesla doesn't have and the European EVs, especially the first will probably be more luxurious, but where it comes to the important things: range, charging, driving experience, the best anyone can hope for is to match Tesla and some will inevitably miss on their first try.

The biggest limitation for Tesla for market penetration is public ignorance. A poll last year found something like 60% of Americans knew little or nothing about EVs. A lot of people had heard of Tesla, but didn't really know anything about the company. People are bombarded with ads for ICE from traditional car companies, but while Tesla has done the occasional ad (I did see one in a magazine once), they do almost no advertising. Their reputation comes from word of mouth and the media.

Among those 60% who don't know much about EVs, they think golf carts, not fully functional family cars that are better than anything they've ever owned, as well as being cheaper to drive. If the market starts filling up with long range EVs and the public starts learning about them, considering where Tesla is vs the competition, it can do nothing but help Tesla.

I don’t disagree in principle , but t the biggest obstacle to people buying Tesla’s is building Tesla’s. Production and execution. They’re doing great, just need more faster.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

View attachment 307831 View attachment 307832 View attachment 307833 View attachment 307834 View attachment 307835 View attachment 307836 View attachment 307837 View attachment 307838 View attachment 307839 6/8/18 around 9:00am - 3 car carriers loading, lot is pretty full except to make room for the car carriers. Looks like the new line (housed at the temp building by thr north lot) is working. As for wrapping fully or not, most of these cars are just going to Richmond or other staging areas whereas some are actually going long-distance to their final destinations. I’m also not going to be at my Fremont office as frequently so sorry if the lot pics will be more infrequent.

Unacceptable!!! Thank you for everything you've done. Your posts were the only thing that kept me coming back after delivery.

 

[Zorg]

Saw about 10 carriers around 10pm last night.