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Fremont Factory Should be Operating at Full Speed in late 2017.......

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Where did you see this? Everything I've seen says they are good for metal stamping and the paint shop but everything else (a new body line and final assembly) doesn't exist yet. The current Model S/X line (2,500+ units a week) could be upgraded to make the Model 3 also because of spare capacity (~900 units a week).

The goal is producing 60,000 Model S and 60,000 Model X a year on two production lines. That's 1154 a week based on a 52 week year. If they plan to be shut down to two weeks a year, that's 1200 a week. The Model X though is a beast to produce and I doubt it's production numbers will ever be the same as the Model S unless they make some design changes to make it easier to manufacture.

Both lines now are running at pretty close to full, compensating for the slower build rate for the X. They did tool the Model S and X lines so they could build the other car, but the two cars share the same platform. The Model 3 will be a completely different platform and tooling one or both of the S/X lines to make Model 3s too would be more trouble than its worth.

I believe in its heyday the NUMMI plant ran 5 lines to produce 500,000 cars a year (each line producing 2000 cars a week). Tesla would be better served maxing out the factory and building out three Model 3 lines. Even with three lines building 2000 cars a week, it will still take Tesla 5 quarters to build 400,000 Model 3s.

I would no be surprised if Tesla wasn't quietly talking to some other countries about building a new plant and battery factory there. They had planned all along to build cars in more places than just the US, but the unexpected popularity of the Model 3 may be advancing those plans. I'm sure many European customers would love to see Teslas built in Europe, if for nothing else to shorten the wait to get a car.
 
LMAO, I love these speculating threads where people dream up their most optimistic dreams and try to pass it off as reality. Sorry guys, there is no Santa, Easter Bunny, or Tooth Fairy. The Model 3 when loaded will cost a ton more cash than speculated, and it is very unlikely that a single car will be delivered in 2017. Best case scenario is that they will start producing the cars end of 2017.
 
LMAO, I love these speculating threads where people dream up their most optimistic dreams and try to pass it off as reality. Sorry guys, there is no Santa, Easter Bunny, or Tooth Fairy. The Model 3 when loaded will cost a ton more cash than speculated, and it is very unlikely that a single car will be delivered in 2017. Best case scenario is that they will start producing the cars end of 2017.

Which is also speculation......
 
There are 3 sides to the coin. You can choose to be optimistic or pessimistic but in the end the truth will probably end up somewhere in between. There's a chance we may be pleasantly surprised, but there's also a chance some of us will be disappointed. I'm more on the optimistic side but it's impossible to deny the challenges. I imagine they are working hard to deliver as many cars as they can, as soon as possible.
 
My understanding:
Fremont line 1 can only build Model S, it was never upgraded to build Model X.
Fremont line 2 can build either Model S or Model X.
Neither is running at capacity.

Speculation:
They could ramp up line 2 and then rebuild line 1 to make Model 3, or, since Fremont is quite big and they are not using all of it, build a line 3 for Model 3. Given the capacity they'll need, perhaps they need to do both of these!
 
I believe Fremont has the capacity for 5 lines (don't quote me on this). At 2000/line/week that would get to the 500k/year capacity Elon needs and we know Fremont is capable of. With 5 lines, It would make sense to dedicate 1 line each to S and X with 2 or 3 lines for the 3. This would be sustainable for a few years but they really need to get another factory up in Europe/China.