FSD may require a hardware upgrade...

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I didn't think anyone actually believed his statement. How could Model 3 not be more advanced than Model S in so many ways? It was designed 4-5 years AFTER the Model S! The Model X is more advanced than Model S even after Model S received the "facelift". There will obviously be design improvements all over the place. You can't expect Tesla to not implement all the things they've learned from making two prior generations of vehicles.

The ventilation system alone in Model 3 is light years ahead of Model S/X. Yes, the Model 3 is a much more advanced car than Model S. It's not as fast, for sure, and lacks some of the Model S "bling", but at the end of the day it's a better overall design in many respects. Can't wait for the Model S redesign which I think is coming in the next 6-12 months.

If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is. Those who blindly follow a charlatan are bound to get burned.

It kind of looks like we were lied to again. Pretty much everything about the Model 3 looks to be an improvement over the Model S, technologically.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I find it unlikely HW 2.5 is retrofittable as Tesla says.

It includes too much new wiring and redundant stuff.

It is a suite upgrade, not just a CPU/GPU upgrade.

AP2 is now legacy and obsolete HW wise. Getting a CPU/GPU upgrade is still possible, but even Tesla says that is unlikely. Getting the redundant suite upgrade seems very unlikely.

As has been heard on the Autonomous Vehicles sub-forum, AP2.5 firmware has already been separated from AP2 as a new branch - it tells its own story too.

We shall see what the effects of these are for the AP2 updates and potential regulatory approval. Maybe not much in short term, but could be significant in the long term.

AP2 goes down as the AP that did not even get AP1 parity before something better came along.

I believe a similar point was discussed before, but again we have to separate:
1) processing (CPU/GPU/motherboard) hardware required for FSD
2) other hardware (new sensors, wiring etc) required for FSD
3) redundancy hardware (for example steering redundancy, compute redunancy, not talking about sensors; may or may not be legally required depending on jurisdiction)
4) generational hardware upgrades (may not be related to FSD/autopilot at all: examples from previously include the new filtration system, relocation of the 12V battery, new onboard chargers, new TMPS, upgraded rear camera, etc).

The whole "HW 2.5" is throwing everything under the same umbrella, but not all of it may be required for FSD.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

It kind of looks like we were lied to again. Pretty much everything about the Model 3 looks to be an improvement over the Model S, technologically.

Agreed.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is. Those who blindly follow a charlatan are bound to get burned.

To be clear in this case the claim that Model 3 is not a next version or more advanced than Model S/X was made by both Tesla the company and Elon (as well as tons of Tesla sales repeating the official line).

It was part of the infamous anti-sell campaign to get people waiting for Model 3 into Model S/X this past spring...

Just making sure we're not attributing the claim too narrowly to just "he" as in your post...

 

[AnxietyRanger]

The whole "HW 2.5" is throwing everything under the same umbrella, but not all of it may be required for FSD.

Of course. However no matter how you circle around it, the unpleasant possibility remains.

It isn't like Tesla hasn't fallen short on their forward-looking software upgrade promises before and moved the goalposts to the next hardware generation.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Of course. However no matter how you circle around it, the unpleasant possibility remains.

It isn't like Tesla hasn't fallen short on their forward-looking software upgrade promises before and moved the goalposts to the next hardware generation.

The possibility remains, but I wanted to point out that differences between them must be made clear, as the waters are continually being muddied by people here.

Tesla only promised to upgrade the hardware as necessary to achieve FSD. They did not promise to upgrade the hardware to the latest version in general.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

The possibility remains, but I wanted to point out that differences between them must be made clear, as the waters are continually being muddied by people here.

I'm all for technically being exact, so the separated points in your post are good.

Tesla only promised to upgrade the hardware as necessary to achieve FSD. They did not promise to upgrade the hardware to the latest version in general.

That is true. However, they also hinged that capability on regulatory approval, which means there remains the possibility that they didn't estimate regulatory requirements correctly. That is the question posed by additional redundancy added to the suite so soon afterwards.

Did Tesla patch a mistake? If so, it is possible AP2.5 might get regulatory approval where AP2 wouldn't. If so, that is good information to try to iron out (would make a difference on someone opting for AP2 FSD, buying a CPO etc.).

Tesla, unfortunately, does not have a track-record of transparency, so we can't trust them to tell us if they made a mistake. Hence we are speculating.

 

[TaoJones]

The possibility remains, but I wanted to point out that differences between them must be made clear, as the waters are continually being muddied by people here.

Tesla only promised to upgrade the hardware as necessary to achieve FSD. They did not promise to upgrade the hardware to the latest version in general.

Except that Tesla did in fact state that Model S/X owners would get improvements first before Model 3 owners.

My expectation is that on the day that FSD becomes a reality, my AP2 EAP FSD car will be upgraded at Tesla's expense to meet or exceed what's currently available as part of the Model 3.

In other words, a $3K refund isn't going to cut it.

Attempting to shield the company from the truth is indefensible.

Is there still weasel/wiggle room? Sure - we're due for another October surprise (see 10/2014 and 10/2016) and, while it's a bit early for an interior refresh, we're right on time for a nice juicy S/X FSD pre-announcement (note Elon's already said that his XC FSD trip may slip into 2018 - and rightly so given the importance of the Model 3 ramp).

 

[stopcrazypp]

Except that Tesla did in fact state that Model S/X owners would get improvements first before Model 3 owners.

My expectation is that on the day that FSD becomes a reality, my AP2 EAP FSD car will be upgraded at Tesla's expense to meet or exceed what's currently available as part of the Model 3.

Where did they say that? Especially as applicable to HW2 owners?

Note that HW2.5 reached non-employee owners of Model S/X first before it reached non-employee Model 3 owners.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Where did they say that? Especially as applicable to HW2 owners?

Note that HW2.5 reached non-employee owners of Model S/X first before it reached non-employee Model 3 owners.

There is at least one very clear group of buyers that Tesla misled with the anti-sell: Those waiting for a Model 3, but buying a Model S/X instead in the past spring based on Tesla's anti-sell.

They were given the clear information they were waiting for an inferior car in every way. Clearly that was not true, it was obvious to most of us even before, but now that we've seen not just HW 2.5 but also interior camera etc. in the Model 3, it is even more glaring how untrue that was.

The anti-sell was not truthful. Model 3 is in many ways superior to the Model S/X that were sold in the spring.

 

[stopcrazypp]

There is at least one very clear group of buyers that Tesla misled with the anti-sell: Those waiting for a Model 3, but buying a Model S/X instead in the past spring based on Tesla's anti-sell.

They were given the clear information they were waiting for an inferior car in every way. Clearly that was not true, it was obvious to most of us even before, but now that we've seen not just HW 2.5 but also interior camera etc. in the Model 3, it is even more glaring how untrue that was.

The anti-sell was not truthful. Model 3 is in many ways superior to the Model S/X that were sold in the spring.

Well the anti sell is one thing, but he is saying Tesla promised to make improvements to the older HW2 S/X to match the Model 3 (rather than simply bare minimum for FSD). I haven't read that before.

 

[J1mbo]

He didnt say that.

“Model S will always have more range, more acceleration, more power, more passenger cargo room, more displays (two), and more customization choices, and Model S, X and 3 will all have equivalent Autopilot functionality. We will continue to clearly communicate these distinctions to avoid any misperceptions.”

He talks about AP functionality, not AP hardware.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

He didnt say that.

He talks about AP functionality, not AP hardware.

Sure, I agree Tesla didn't promise improvements to old cars. As for new ones, we shall see if and when Model S/X will get that interior camera soon too that Model 3 is already shipping with...

But IMO the biggest thing was the "not version 3, not most advanced" anti-sell. Clearly Model 3 is a new version of Tesla, a generation shift and more advanced than Model S/X shipped until now, in several ways. Those who decided to stop waiting for Model 3 in the spring ended up thus being misled IMO.

The fact that it had better AP HW and an interior camera are just one way in which the anti-sell was not truthful or accurate.

 

[lunitiks]

Clearly Model 3 is a new version of Tesla, a generation shift and more advanced than Model S/X shipped until now, in several ways. (...)

The fact that it had better AP HW and an interior camera are just one way in which the anti-sell was not truthful or accurate.

Better HVAC-system
Vanity lights
Coat hangers
USB-chargers
Seatback storage
Foldable backseat armrest
Door storage (vs S)
Wiper nozzles (vs S)

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Better HVAC-system
Vanity lights
Coat hangers
USB-chargers
Seatback storage
Foldable backseat armrest
Door storage (vs S)
Wiper nozzles (vs S)

2170 battery...
New motor...
Faster big screen computer...

And frankly, at this rate, I would not be surprised if the doors are actually automatic (pending software enabling).

 

[lunitiks]

I would not be surprised if the doors are actually automatic

Actually why do you keep mentioning this? Have you seen/heard something?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Actually why do you keep mentioning this? Have you seen/heard something?

No. Just pondering based on the level of automation the doors already do have and the general speculation that Model S might get automated doors due to self-driving as well. It would make sense that Model 3 might have such a feature already built in from the get go, and keeping it disabled so as to not to Osborne Model S would also make sense...

I would not even call this speculation, there is no info to speculate on. This is more like me musing the thought. For example, one thing that does make me doubt those musings is the manual trunk, why have a manual trunk if you had automatic doors. Thus, it could also possible they have prepared the doors for such an upgrade eventually in production, but it is not there yet.

Of course it is also more than possible this bit of pondering is completely wrong and no automated doors for Model 3 have been implemented or pending at all. That's why I keep saying "I wouldn't be surprised" (because I wouldn't), I'm not speculating this is actually the case, though.

This is what the lack of transparency from Tesla creates - the silence is filled with, well, thoughts.

 

[Matias]

Have you noticed Elon’s recent radio silence concerning AP? Earlier he was very often promising improvements and timelines. Like infamous “three months maybe, six months for sure” You can interpret this different ways, but I believe the recent EAP lawsuit has caused his legal team to caution him of giving any forward looking promises..

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Have you noticed Elon’s recent radio silence concerning AP? Earlier he was very often promising improvements and timelines. Like infamous “three months maybe, six months for sure” You can interpret this different ways, but I believe the recent EAP lawsuit has caused his legal team to caution him of giving any forward looking promises..

Well, he did give an updated timeline on the FSD coast-to-coast still...

But assuming you're right and there is a change: I'll be an optimist on this one. I'm hoping Elon actually just learned what he was doing was wrong and wants to do better.

Unless there is a nefarious motive, there is absolutely no need for forward-looking promises on products they take money for. Just promise nothing, give no updates on anything other than what is shipping today or what you clearly state will only become on sale later, so people know it is separate from what is being sold today.

 

[oktane]

I knew the model three would be superior in many ways, which is why I have been advocating for months that people purchase a used AP1 car if they must buy it now versus waiting until after model 3 roll out.