FSD monthly.

[Michelle_eriw]

I read that starting sometime late this year, FSD will be available on a monthly basis. Because I'm going to be leasing my M3 LR, if the payments are less than the difference in lease payments, it would be less expensive to go that route than to buy it.

 

[jjrandorin]

Where did you read confirmation of that? Would love to read some sort of official statement on that.

 

[St☰v☰]

I recall something like that as well a month or so ago. I think it was somewhere around $99 a month...

 

[Michelle_eriw]

Where did you read confirmation of that? Would love to read some sort of official statement on that.

Tesla Profits, Says Full Self-Driving Will Be Subscription by Year-End — Car and Driver

FSD will be available as a subscription toward the end of this year, Musk said. Currently, the option costs $7000 and lasts for the life of the vehicle. A subscription could give drivers the potential to use the feature for a few months to see if they want to use it on a daily basis or just occasionally during road trips.

 

[jjrandorin]

Thanks for that. Not quite tesla official, but close enough. At that point it comes down to math, since if you are planning on leasing then you are only paying for the part you consume during the lease, as you know. I would very carefully do the math because, while tesla SHOULD take something like that difference into account, they dont necessarily do that very well when they make these changes.

I dont see any mention of price, but tesla has to make sure they are not shooting themselves in the foot here with pricing on it. $100 a month (for example) doesnt make much sense as a price if FSD itself is going to be 7 or even 8k.

If the average car LOAN is 5-6 years, lets say 72 months / 6 years, in order for the rental price to even be equal with a purchase, the rental price would need to be $8000 (new price) divided by 72 months. Thats $111 a month, for it to be equal revenue , and that depends on how they let you start and stop the service.

The price that seems to make sense financially would be something like $199 a month, just eyeballing it... but no idea where tesla will land on this. They may actually prefer people to do the software as a service model, and rent FSD monthly for the life of the vehicle, and if thats the case, it may support starting with a lower price like $99.

 

[andrew1039]

I’m wondering for the people that have hardware 2.5 what they’d do or even would it be available to them?

I’m thinking maybe if you do a monthly subscription you’d still have to pay for the hardware out of pocket?

 

[andrew1039]

I’m wondering for the people that have hardware 2.5 what they’d do or even would it be available to them?

I’m thinking maybe if you do a monthly subscription you’d still have to pay for the hardware out of pocket?

Or maybe they’d have a requirement to be on the subscription for a certain amount of time

 

[jjrandorin]

I’m wondering for the people that have hardware 2.5 what they’d do or even would it be available to them?

I’m thinking maybe if you do a monthly subscription you’d still have to pay for the hardware out of pocket?

Be interesting to see how they handle that. The "elephant in the room sized" loophole of subscribing only long enough to get the HW3 upgrade for free, then canceling, should be apparent to anyone, including those at tesla. It would not make sense for subscribers to get HW3 for free, so either they make it a requirement to already have HW3 to do the subscription, or dont offer all features available on FSD to those who DO subscribe and have HW version lower than 3.

Thats the only thing that makes sense, but there will be many who post here who will "discuss / assume / complain" about either one of those paths. If tesla says "must have HW3.0 to subscribe" there will be a whole bunch of people here who complain about that and say stuff like "I have EAP, why cant I do this, tesla PROMISED ME blah blah blah. Tesla should give me the HW3.0 for free / drastically reduced price to try this out!!!!111!!!"

If tesla says "you can subscribe, but with HW2.5 you wont get features much past EAP" those same people complain that its not a fair test, not a fair subscription, why are they being left behind, blah blah".

 

[MP3Mike]

I read that starting sometime late this year, FSD will be available on a monthly basis. Because I'm going to be leasing my M3 LR, if the payments are less than the difference in lease payments, it would be less expensive to go that route than to buy it.

Telsa/Elon has already said it will be much cheaper to buy FSD than go with a subscription.

My guess is that if you lease a new vehicle it will be cheaper to have FSD in the lease than as a subscription. But if you have already leased your vehicle without FSD it will be cheaper to go with the subscription.

My guess is that the subscription will be ~$200/month with a 12-month minimum.

They said the subscription might come around the end of this year, and FSD is already going up $1,000 in a week, how much more will it go up before the subscription is offered? (My guess is it won't be offered until they are "feature complete" with FSD.)

 

[Michelle_eriw]

Thanks for that. Not quite tesla official, but close enough. At that point it comes down to math, since if you are planning on leasing then you are only paying for the part you consume during the lease, as you know. I would very carefully do the math because, while tesla SHOULD take something like that difference into account, they dont necessarily do that very well when they make these changes.

I dont see any mention of price, but tesla has to make sure they are not shooting themselves in the foot here with pricing on it. $100 a month (for example) doesnt make much sense as a price if FSD itself is going to be 7 or even 8k.

If the average car LOAN is 5-6 years, lets say 72 months / 6 years, in order for the rental price to even be equal with a purchase, the rental price would need to be $8000 (new price) divided by 72 months. Thats $111 a month, for it to be equal revenue , and that depends on how they let you start and stop the service.

The price that seems to make sense financially would be something like $199 a month, just eyeballing it... but no idea where tesla will land on this. They may actually prefer people to do the software as a service model, and rent FSD monthly for the life of the vehicle, and if thats the case, it may support starting with a lower price like $99.

As I've mentioned, I placed my order this month, so I'm locked in for $7,000. That's about $195 a month For a three year lease. If not buying FSD lowers my lease payments by more than $195, it pays to go with the subscription method.

 

[andrew1039]

I guess we will have to see

 

[Michelle_eriw]

Telsa/Elon has already said it will be much cheaper to buy FSD than go with a subscription.

My guess is that if you lease a new vehicle it will be cheaper to have FSD in the lease than as a subscription. But if you have already leased your vehicle without FSD it will be cheaper to go with the subscription.

My guess is that the subscription will be ~$200/month with a 12-month minimum.

They said the subscription might come around the end of this year, and FSD is already going up $1,000 in a week, how much more will it go up before the subscription is offered? (My guess is it won't be offered until they are "feature complete" with FSD.)

Well, if the article is correct, both FSD and the subscription method will both happen this year.

 

[jjrandorin]

As I've mentioned, I placed my order this month, so I'm locked in for $7,000. That's about $195 a month For a three year lease. If not buying FSD lowers my lease payments by more than $195, it pays to go with the subscription method.

But you dont pay for the entire 7k on a lease. If you buy it from tesla at least time it will be part of the calculation of the residual. If the residual is 60% (I dont know, I have not looked at tesla residuals, just using it as an example), then you would pay for 40% of the cost of FSD, or in this example 40% of 7000, or 2800, or $77.77 a month for a 36 month lease.

Again, fictitious numbers in the example, but the math works. Find out the residual value percentage used in your lease calculation, and you can see how much FSD would increase your lease... which I suspect will be around 95-100 a month, not 195 a month because you dont pay for all of it on a lease.

 

[run-the-joules]

I recall something like that as well a month or so ago. I think it was somewhere around $99 a month...

$99/mo? Get real. I'll take a permanent ban if that pans out.

 

[Michelle_eriw]

But you dont pay for the entire 7k on a lease. If you buy it from tesla at least time it will be part of the calculation of the residual. If the residual is 60% (I dont know, I have not looked at tesla residuals, just using it as an example), then you would pay for 40% of the cost of FSD, or in this example 40% of 7000, or 2800, or $77.77 a month for a 36 month lease.

Again, fictitious numbers in the example, but the math works. Find out the residual value percentage used in your lease calculation, and you can see how much FSD would increase your lease... which I suspect will be around 95-100 a month, not 195 a month because you dont pay for all of it on a lease.

When the lease is up, you have to return the car to Tesla; there is no option to buy it it. Leasing (with the FSD) with the same $4,500 down, payments are $581 (10,000 miles per year allowance), for a total of $25,416. Leasing without the FSD and the same down payment is $486 a month, for a total of $21,996. So the difference is about $3,420, or about $95 a month.

 

[jjrandorin]

When the lease is up, you have to return the car to Tesla; there is no option to buy it it. Leasing (with the FSD) with the same $4,500 down, payments are $581 (10,000 miles per year allowance), for a total of $25,416. Leasing without the FSD and the same down payment is $486 a month, for a total of $21,996. So the difference is about $3,420, or about $95 a month.

Right, so its around what I guessed (95-100 a month).I know there is no option to buy it, but a lease functions the same from a math perspective, so there is still a residual value of the car at the end. You just cant purchase the car for that amount, but its still there.

How much FSD you pay for during your lease is a direct reflection of the math I said above. Whatever they are stating the residual value is, as a percentage, means you are paying for the inverse of that during the lease as a rent charge (not counting tax, and any other cap cost adds etc).

Also, while I wont go as far as saying I would take a ban from the site if the price was $99 a month, I think you can safely assume that, since you now know the difference in your lease cost is $95 a month, there is a VERY VERY VERY high probability that the cost is at LEAST the same, but likely significantly higher.

Whats just as important as the cost, however, is how often they let you start and stop. Even if the cost is $199 or even 299 a month, but you can start and stop as you want, there would be plenty of people who would subscribe just for a road trip... which I would think would be a mistake because they wouldnt be familiar with it, yet using it for a long trip.

Anyway, plenty of people would do that, still making the total cost less even if the monthly was higher, so will they follow a netflix model and let you start and stop at will, or will they make you sign up yearly, or what?

That part will be linked to the monthly price, for sure.

 

[Knightshade]

$99/mo? Get real. I'll take a permanent ban if that pans out.

yeah- it's pretty much got to be higher than that for the "costs more than if you just bought it" thing to pan out.

 

[SlimJim]

On average, people keep a new car for 70 months.


After 70 months, the value of the car is around 47%.
$7000 x 47% = $3290.
depreciation = $3710.
$3710/70 mo = $53/mo.

vs.

$99/mo if you subscribe.

Therefore, if you plan to subscribe 50% of the time or less, subscribe.
If you plan to use it every month at minimum, purchase.

 

[smatthew]

My guess is that the subscription will be ~$200/month with a 12-month minimum.

There is no way they have a 12 month minimum. What about the driver who is going on a road trip and wants FSD for the month - which I believe is the use case Tesla talks about? $100 or $200 might be doable, but telling them they have to subscribe for a year? Nope. Someone who didn't spring for permanent FSD isn't going to go for a $2400/yr subscription.

The idea is that someone who subscribes for a month or two either a) subscribes permanently, or b) purchases FSD. But there will be plenty of people getting it for a month or two a year when they travel. I know that's what my mom wants to do. She doesn't want to pay for FSD, but could be convinced to rent it for trips.

 

[MP3Mike]

What about the driver who is going on a road trip and wants FSD for the month - which I believe is the use case Tesla talks about?

I don't recall Tesla mentioning anything about that kind of use case. You think Tesla is going to let someone subscribe for a single month especially if it requires retrofitting the FSD computer?