FSD now $8,000. Who's buying?

[beatle]

I was annoyed at FSD for what I considered very poor etiquette all for a lane change that I wouldn’t have made (or if I had made would have committed to match the pace of traffic in that lane).

This is exactly why FSD has no value to me. While I will not backseat drive a friend, cabbie, or bus driver unless a crash appears imminent or they're going to miss a turn, I find myself quickly taking over for FSD if it is too slow, too fast, or is not choosing the lane I believe is optimal. To paraphrase George Carlin, "anyone driving slower than me is an idiot, and anyone driving faster is a maniac." Since I'm the one in the driver's seat, I am the one whose driving is responsible for the car's poor behavior, and in most cases I feel I can do a better job.

 

[Ben W]

I expect them to be built from the same platform, but I think the Robotaxi will be amped-up on sensors and compute power. It obviously would also lack driving controls and should have auto-closing doors. The Model 2 should be that same platform set up like today's Model 3. Because of the need to operate with and without driving controls, I expect steer-by-wire.

Steer-by-wire makes sense for multiple reasons, but “lack of driving controls” implies L5 autonomy, and Tesla is at least 10 years away from that, probably 15-20 years. So I expect the first generation of Robotaxi will absolutely still have a steering wheel or equivalent controls, allowing manual operation in difficult environments or circumstances. Even Waymo has not yet publicly deployed their steering-wheel-less prototype even in geofenced environments, to my knowledge.

 

[JulienW]

Steer-by-wire makes sense for multiple reasons, but “lack of driving controls” implies L5 autonomy, and Tesla is at least 10 years away from that, probably 15-20 years. So I expect the first generation of Robotaxi will absolutely still have a steering wheel or equivalent controls, allowing manual operation in difficult environments or circumstances. Even Waymo has not yet publicly deployed their steering-wheel-less prototype even in geofenced environments, to my knowledge.

L4 doesn't have to have controls same as L5 and I believe Waymo is under contract to buy a Chinese made car without any controls.

EDIT: Here is a Waymo article

Waymo’s new robotaxi is an all-electric people mover with no steering wheel

The new AV made its debut at the LA Auto Show.

www.theverge.com

 

[Ben W]

L4 doesn't have to have controls same as L5 and I believe Waymo is under contract to buy a Chinese made car without any controls.

EDIT: Here is a Waymo article

Waymo’s new robotaxi is an all-electric people mover with no steering wheel

The new AV made its debut at the LA Auto Show.

www.theverge.com

Yes, I know this is Waymo’s future plan, but the car is not in mass production yet, let alone publicly deployed. Here’s a more recent update: https://carnewschina.com/2024/01/17...-spotted-testing-in-china-ahead-of-us-launch/

For Tesla’s Robotaxi, a lot hinges on whether the intent is to actually sell them to consumers, or whether they will be 100% owned and operated by Tesla. If the former, they will need to be able to drive (or be driven) anywhere, implying that without a steering wheel they would have to be L5. If the latter, they could be geofenced / envirofenced (e.g. good weather only), making them L4 even without a steering wheel, though even this I think is 6-10 years away given Tesla’s past and current FSD trends. So I will be massively surprised (and disappointed) if they’re truly betting the medium-term farm on steering-wheel-less L4, because I don’t think they have a realistic chance of pulling it off in time.

 

[Vines]

I tried it out during the trial and disabled it. The following distance is too far and people think you're dawdling, then they cut you off or attempt to pass you on the right. This is with the distance set to minimum and most aggressive. EAP is better at following, but AP1 was better still. Not sure if FSD fixes the occasional swerve back into the original lane when changing lanes. That was a pretty rare event though, only 2-3 times a year, but AP1 never did that.

From your response you tried it before the current version as your description does not match the current product.

Now you get just the option of Chill/normal/aggressive driving styles and follow distance and acceleration and lane changes are all rolled into that. You should try it again, it is really good these days in 99.9% of situations.

 

[Mr.S3XY]

I had just paid the $6K to get the EAP function, before a trip from Maryland to Tennessee. It was soooo nice to have. If the FSD is only $2K more, I think I'll just take the plunge, since I'm most of the way there already.

 

[spacecoin]

L4 doesn't have to have controls same as L5 and I believe Waymo is under contract to buy a Chinese made car without any controls.

Under current federal law all cars must have a steering wheel and pedals. You can get exemptions for up to 1000 test vehicles iirc.

 

[Chuck305]

Reducing the price by 10x and increasing the take rate by 10x produces no net monetary change, while leaving Tesla with a greater potential for people to use the system irresponsibly. Keeping the price moderately high encourages use by those who have a real interest in the system and are more likely to use it properly.

Your math makes no sense. reducing the price by 10x and increasing the user base by 80% is lots of money. Additionally he can then make small annual price increases just like Netflix and Amazon Prime. Have only 20% of the user base at 10x the cost is still unrealized gains.

You assume a person who can't afford to drop $8 is incapable or unlikely to follow the rules when its the opposite. People with wealth are more likely to abuse a system because they feel entitled and the cost is inconsequential. Now I can afford the $8K, even the $12K, but since I can count the $99/mo is the intelligent choice of the three.

Competition is heating up and even though US Government has pressured Mexico to be hostile to Chinese companies like BYD.. its just a matter of time before they are selling in the USA. I believe Elon will lower FSD again.. its just a giant revenue stream waiting to be tapped.

 

[hey kupo]

$1K, transferable, and I might consider it as an "early adopter". I don't think I'd even pay $99 for a long road trip.

 

[Vines]

I bought EAP for $6k and thought after 2 weeks that it would be worth $6k to upgrade to full autopilot. The 12.3.4 is so good I am loving it.

Now it has been reduced to $2k my only question is how long will this last, as I am certainly buying it but not sure if I can do that right now with taxes due.

 

[terranx]

I bought EAP for $6k and thought after 2 weeks that it would be worth $6k to upgrade to full autopilot. The 12.3.4 is so good I am loving it.

Now it has been reduced to $2k my only question is how long will this last, as I am certainly buying it but not sure if I can do that right now with taxes due.

Realistically if taxes being due have a material enough impact on your budget to make spending $2k difficult... you probably shouldn't be wasting $2k on a toy.

 

[timeslip]

Is the safety check on your eyes still very sensitive? In Dec, I was not even able to search for a new song on the screen without it warning me to pay attention to the road.

 

[brianman]

In general though, agreed on these three FSD flavors. Transferability of fully-owned FSD will be really important; it very likely will make the difference whether my next car is a Tesla or not.

Yeah, "what you spent on FSD goes with the car" is definitely a deterrent for upgrading or changing vehicles.

Even more so FUSC, but that ship has sailed I think.

My 2018 M3P track-plus-path-to-and-from-track-only vehicle is getting "long in the tooth" but it has FUSC, FSD, and an aftermarket suspension b/c tires were dying fast with the stock suspension. I'm curious what M3H/L/Pl could bring, but not looking forward to the lost value of upgrading.

 

[Vines]

Realistically if taxes being due have a material enough impact on your budget to make spending $2k difficult... you probably shouldn't be wasting $2k on a toy.

If I was interested in a toy I'd buy a new GPU or a new console game.

I drive 4k miles per month and having FSD has made this last month that much easier of a drive. Between selling TSLA stocks, buying 4 rental properties and turning one of them over this month, my budget is stretched. This is a matter of timing, not of frivolous purchases.

 

[Ben W]

Yeah, "what you spent on FSD goes with the car" is definitely a deterrent for upgrading or changing vehicles.

Even more so FUSC, but that ship has sailed I think.

My 2018 M3P track-plus-path-to-and-from-track-only vehicle is getting "long in the tooth" but it has FUSC, FSD, and an aftermarket suspension b/c tires were dying fast with the stock suspension. I'm curious what M3H/L/Pl could bring, but not looking forward to the lost value of upgrading.

FUSC currently adds significantly to the private-party resale value. FSD not so much, because it’s seeming more and more clear that older hardware (HW3) will never achieve L4, for instance. FSD transferability is more important on principle because Tesla failed to deliver the original full value as promised, and a full hardware upgrade (in practice a new car) will be necessary to realize that promised value. So FSD should remain transferable until that value is fully realized. Once it is, Tesla should no longer have the transferability obligation, since the resale value will be there.

 

[terranx]

If I was interested in a toy I'd buy a new GPU or a new console game.

I drive 4k miles per month and having FSD has made this last month that much easier of a drive. Between selling TSLA stocks, buying 4 rental properties and turning one of them over this month, my budget is stretched. This is a matter of timing, not of frivolous purchases.

ok

 

[ngng]

Maybe there should be three FSD products...

FSD Lifetime. For an individual owner for one car, fully transferable for the lifetime of the owner to future Tesla cars. For personal use only, no ridesharing functions. This might be worth $5K, maybe more, and make buyers really brand loyal. I think I owned Honda products for 20 years of my car life. So $5K or even $8K would be worth it over that kind of lifespan.

FSD Monthly. For one-time Tesla owners, or those that do mostly short range driving but occasional long distance driving. $99/mo or less is probably the price range for this.

FSD Robotaxi. FSD plus ride share summons, billing, planning, rider monitoring, maybe includes Tesla Insurance. For operators of Robotaxi fleets or individuals that want to ride share a personal car. This could be priced higher if it makes your car a revenue generator but not sure what that price is. Not $100K, it would have to be much less. There are many liability issues to work out here and government regulatory issues that could change the business model overnight. This Robotaxi thing is one 'Robotaxi runs over Granny pushing stroller' accident away from being regulated out of existence.

I think Tesla will need to offer EAP features for free to stay competitive. Their current AP offering actually makes the car feel dated. My guess would be when the tech stack is unified between highway and local. I predict:

- FSD viz at a minimum but probably…
- free FSD viz and EAP highway
- paid “unlocked” FSD highway and local; transferrable

What would be really interesting is subscription based L3, where Tesla assumes liability

 

[beatle]

From your response you tried it before the current version as your description does not match the current product.

Now you get just the option of Chill/normal/aggressive driving styles and follow distance and acceleration and lane changes are all rolled into that. You should try it again, it is really good these days in 99.9% of situations.

I just tried it a week ago. Is there something newer than this? If so, it's not available to me. The nagging that occurs after less than a second is also infuriating as you cannot even reach for the wipers or change hands without the system freaking out, though that's not unique to FSD - just worse when it is trying to steer around a corner. It is more effort to monitor the system and avoid nags than it is to just drive the car.

 

[hydro]

I just tried it a week ago. Is there something newer than this? If so, it's not available to me. The nagging that occurs after less than a second is also infuriating as you cannot even reach for the wipers or change hands without the system freaking out, though that's not unique to FSD - just worse when it is trying to steer around a corner. It is more effort to monitor the system and avoid nags than it is to just drive the car.

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I share your experience, but my wife who just got a Y loves it.

 

[golfpilot]

I just had my computer upgraded to HW3 today. Currently waiting for the latest update to finish installing to try FSD! Took the service center about 4 hours to return the car and it seemed like they were working on it the whole time doing updates. I lost my saved WiFi-Blutooth and homelink settings as well as my Trip planner reset. I had one the was forEVer so I'm a little bummed about it. They didn't go through much detail but he did say they had to go back and a couple years and do updates one by one. Not really sure why.
After the cameras calibrated, I got EAP back working for the drive home. The side cameras were noticeably clearer but besides that everything seemed to work normal. The stop lights thing is really weird, seemed like it was stopping even at greens. Looking forward to trying out FSD when its done installing though