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FSD now $99 a month

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No matter how good it gets, it will never be L4 or L5 even if it can actually drive at that level because to certify it not needing driver attention also means the manufacturer is on the hook for all liability which Tesla will NEVER assume.
Not for free, that’s for sure. If a car with real self driving an no steering wheel could be purchased, I would assume you might need to only purchase comprehensive insurance.

If someone else is taking the liability I’d sssume they get paid for it. I pay a pile for insurance now every month and as hopeful that I may be I don’t assume that cost is ever going to just go away as long as a car is titled in my name.
 
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No matter how good it gets, it will never be L4 or L5 even if it can actually drive at that level because to certify it not needing driver attention also means the manufacturer is on the hook for all liability which Tesla will NEVER assume.
This is often stated on TMC, "Tesla will never accept liability".

What does everyone think Tesla was doing when it started the insurance side of the business? Just an Elon inspiration to scoop up gobs of low-hanging dollars? I don't think so.

It seems pretty obvious to me that the whole point of the insurance arm was to pave the way for the logistics of AV liability infrastructure.
 
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This is often stated on TMC, "Tesla will never accept liability".

What does everyone think Tesla was doing when it started the insurance side of the business? Just an Elon inspiration to scoop up gobs of low-hanging dollars? I don't think so.

It seems pretty obvious to me that the whole point of the insurance arm was to pave the way for the logistics of AV liability infrastructure.
Not the same thing. Tesla insurance still doesn’t have limitless liability. But if they sell FSD they essentially have limitless liability. The jury can award $1B and they will have to pay.
 
This is often stated on TMC, "Tesla will never accept liability".

What does everyone think Tesla was doing when it started the insurance side of the business? Just an Elon inspiration to scoop up gobs of low-hanging dollars? I don't think so.

It seems pretty obvious to me that the whole point of the insurance arm was to pave the way for the logistics of AV liability infrastructure.

One big reason Tesla started it's insurance arm was in the early days, few insurance companies wanted to insure a Tesla.
 
This is often stated on TMC, "Tesla will never accept liability".

What does everyone think Tesla was doing when it started the insurance side of the business? Just an Elon inspiration to scoop up gobs of low-hanging dollars? I don't think so.

It seems pretty obvious to me that the whole point of the insurance arm was to pave the way for the logistics of AV liability infrastructure.

Tesla assumes limited liability with each policy they underwrite. There's no upper limit if a claimed L4 vehicle causes deaths.
 
Not the same thing. Tesla insurance still doesn’t have limitless liability. But if they sell FSD they essentially have limitless liability. The jury can award $1B and they will have to pay.
This is a maximalist or argumentum ad absurdum claim. If that were true, no AV could ever succeed. In fact, no corporate liability could ever be indemnified, in a wide variety of Industries on the argument that the Deep Pockets doctribe will always lead to unavoidable existential threats.

While it's certainly true that any Robotaxi or FSD vehicle provider will predictably endure outrageous damage claims, this is a variant of existing transportation-related tort law. (I'm no lawyer, I'm just stating the obvious.)

We all recognize that any such new technology invites all kinds of negative speculation, fear mongering, FUD and limit testing by eager lawyers. We also know that the USA may be the worst environment for runaway lawsuits. As corporations or more broadly as a society, everyone can just throw up their hands and say it's not worth it. But I don't think this is something Tesla (and many others) haven't thought about.

On the contrary, I think they've thought about it quite a lot - and that's why they started the insurance infrastructure. It was completely sensible to begin with insuring of Teslas to build the business infrastructure.

As I've pointed out before, the camera and telemetry capabilities of the AV are actually incredibly beneficial in Tesla's ability to defend themselves.
  • Although no AV will be infallible, the rate of at-fault accidents resulting in serious injury or death will be far, far lower than for human driven vehicles.
  • Tesla's ability to fend off false/mistaken claims of accident fault will be extremely good because of the aforementioned video and telemetry evidence.
  • In order to take on the risk with predictable success, Tesla will have better data than anyone in history, as to the performance of its cars in a future unsupervised FSD scenario.
As mentioned above, outrageous jury awards are already a well-known problem. There's a whole regime of appeals and countersuits to rectify that. Usually when it doesn't work and does real damage to a company or industry, I think it's based on claims of criminally negligent behavior, usually involving cover-up of available data.

Just awarding $1B because a smooth-talking lawyer appealed emotianally to a sympathetic jury? Those happen, but don't usually survive the appeals process, and the less-sensational final resolution doesn't make the news.
 
One big reason Tesla started it's insurance arm was in the early days, few insurance companies wanted to insure a Tesla.
I'm not aware of that; I've never read an anecdote about early Tesla customers not being able to get insurance (though I could imagine the very first roadster owners may have some stories to tell, along with the very first Rivian / Lucid / Vinfast owners and so on). I'd be interested if you could relate a story like that or link one.

Tesla insurance started in California, but I believe in the Model 3 era, years after the company was well established and there were plenty of drivers with plenty of insurance policies on the road.

Arizona was one of the first states outside of California, but I think that was around the time I was getting my car in 2021. I never had any issue whatsoever adding the car to my State Farm policy.

So it's possible, but I question the idea that Tesla started their insurance around 2019 because owners couldn't get their Teslas insured. I think autonomous vehicle insurance was the (anticipated) unmet need.
 
This is a maximalist or argumentum ad absurdum claim. If that were true, no AV could ever succeed.
Yes - but that makes the point - offering accident insurance and taking on limitless liability are not the same.

So - the question is - as I have argued umpteen times here before ... what is the expected serious accident rate, what is the expected payout. That determines what the break-even price for FSD is.