FSD Subscription

[techdash]

For what it’s worth...I spotted some code that pointed to prep work already in place for a FSD subscription in January. So I wouldn’t be surprised if this does get out by EOY as Musk has said.

I emailed Tesla’s security team but didn’t hear back. I guess they didn’t view it as a security issue which I can understand. I’ve submitted multiple confirmed issues and they’ve been very quick to respond in all those cases so I’m not criticizing them in any way on that.

With that and the fact that it’s now publicly confirmed that a FSD subscription is happening, I don’t see any harm in sharing.

Specifically, I noticed that there was an internal.dat variable called autopilotSubscription that didn’t seem to exist in older firmware. That seems to indicate active work on and testing of this feature if it’s in production firmware.

 

[Knightshade]

For what it’s worth...I spotted some code that pointed to prep work already in place for a FSD subscription in January. So I wouldn’t be surprised if this does get out by EOY as Musk has said.

I emailed Tesla’s security team but didn’t hear back. I guess they didn’t view it as a security issue which I can understand. I’ve submitted multiple confirmed issues and they’ve been very quick to respond in all those cases so I’m not criticizing them in any way on that.

With that and the fact that it’s now publicly confirmed that a FSD subscription is happening, I don’t see any harm in sharing.

Specifically, I noticed that there was an internal.dat variable called autopilotSubscription that didn’t seem to exist in older firmware. That seems to indicate active work on and testing of this feature if it’s in production firmware.

Yeah- Green already posted about it being in the code for a while now, so no secrets there... the secret right now is the details of the subscription.... cost and mandatory sub period (if any)... (and I suppose eventual ownership options if any)

 

[mrbulk]

Long thread so forgive me if it has already been mentioned, but I'd like to be able to subscribe first and then if it all checks out (true FSD with no weird corner cases - ever) then I'd buy it...unless subscription was cloud-based (works with whichever Tesla you jump into) then I'd subscribe...unless it was multiple times the cost of buying outright because then I'd buy...now what was I gonna buy again?

Seriously I think we need to hear from Elon just exactly what the actual subscription options will be first.

 

[mrbulk]

The return on investment doesn't always have to be monetary. Someone elderly or partially disabled looking for a driver aid in the city could see it as a godsend. I'm not either, but really do look forward to using that capability, so to me it's worth it.

If it saves just one person from some significant crash/injury then there will be no appropriate price anyone can place on it, especially for that person and his/her family.

 

[DrtyJrze]

If it saves just one person from some significant crash/injury then there will be no appropriate price anyone can place on it, especially for that person and his/her family.

I’m 100% certain FSD in its current state has saved many lives already.

Example? Drivers under an influence who have turned on FSD to safely get home.

 

[The_Observer]

I’m 100% certain FSD in its current state has saved many lives already.

Example? Drivers under an influence who have turned on FSD to safely get home.

Doesn't the current form of FSD still requires you to move the steering wheel once a while? If the drivers are still conscious enough to move the steering wheel once a while, it will probably help. Otherwise, FSD won't get a passed out drunk driver to get home.

 

[MP3Mike]

Doesn't the current form of FSD still requires you to move the steering wheel once a while? If the drivers are still conscious enough to move the steering wheel once a while, it will probably help. Otherwise, FSD won't get a passed out drunk driver to get home.

No, but it stills saves their life. (For example the case where it "safely" stopped in the middle of the freeway, just before a bridge, and put the emergency flashers on. The police were called and had to wake the person up.)

 

[DrtyJrze]

Doesn't the current form of FSD still requires you to move the steering wheel once a while? If the drivers are still conscious enough to move the steering wheel once a while, it will probably help. Otherwise, FSD won't get a passed out drunk driver to get home.

Are you being serious?

Plenty of people drive “buzzed”, “nice”, “tipsy”, “high”, etc. and cause fatal crashes.

But in your extreme scenario of a person completely passing out I would argue that in those cases FSD was even more effective at preventing an accident because if no feedback is received the car will come to a stop, as opposed to the unconscious non FSD driver being abruptly stopped by physics.

 

[yesoptus]

Hey all! i'm relatively new here to please excuse if I'm in the wrong spot.

I'm wondering if anyone has any info on present and historical take-rates on Tesla's FSD software options?

Thanks in advance

 

[jeremymc7]

I'm wondering if anyone has any info on present and historical take-rates on Tesla's FSD software options

Here you go. Check the software tab.

Tesla Car Specs - Google Drive

 

[cypho]

Here you go. Check the software tab.

Tesla Car Specs - Google Drive

I think he is asking what percentage of people buy it. I don't see anything about that in your spreadsheet.

 

[jeremymc7]

Ahh “take-rates”. Is that even publicly published by Tesla?

 

[yesoptus]

Ahh “take-rates”. Is that even publicly published by Tesla?

yeah i don't think so. i ask because I've heard lots of people (eg. Rob Mauer) quote 20-25% take-rates though I've not been able to find any data to back that up

 

[jeremymc7]

yeah i don't think so. i ask because I've heard lots of people (eg. Rob Mauer) quote 20-25% take-rates though I've not been able to find any data to back that up

TeslaFi or TeslaScope might have data on the number of installs as a percent of their reporting fleet to use as a baseline. If they do I don’t know if it requires a subscription to see or not. Take a look and report back what you find.

 

[SageBrush]

I think $100/M sounds about right.

I presume 'right' is about you.

From the Tesla perspective, they are selling FSD for $6,000 and people hold on to cars an average of ~ 5 years so that is $100 a month. I don't think there is any chance whatsoever that on/off FSD by subscription is the same monthly price. Maybe double

 

[cypho]

I presume 'right' is about you.

From the Tesla perspective, they are selling FSD for $6,000 and people hold on to cars an average of ~ 5 years so that is $100 a month. I don't think there is any chance whatsoever than on/off FSD by subscription is the same price. Maybe double

I agree $100 a month is too low. But I like the $100 price, so how about $100 a week?

Even that might be too low if they let you turn it on and off each cycle. For a lot of people there is minimal value on your daily commute or on short trips to the grocery store. So why buy it for $8,000 if I can rent it for $100 each time I go on the road trip.

 

[base_two]

I presume 'right' is about you.

From the Tesla perspective, they are selling FSD for $6,000 and people hold on to cars an average of ~ 5 years so that is $100 a month. I don't think there is any chance whatsoever that on/off FSD by subscription is the same monthly price. Maybe double

Tesla is likely going to chose a price point that strikes a balance between maximizing reoccurring revenue and just getting people on board with FSD. They may hit $100, the may go a little higher, but objective is making the subscription option an attractive offer.

 

[SageBrush]

how about $100 a week?

Even that might be too low if they let you turn it on and off each cycle. For a lot of people there is minimal value on your daily commute or on short trips to the grocery store. So why buy it for $8,000 if I can rent it for $100 each time I go on the road trip.

Yes, with the added carrot that the rentals paid comes off the price of a full purchase

I personally would be very satisfied with that offer.

 

[willow_hiller]

I'm also curious how Tesla will handle vehicles with HW2.5. A lot of people seem to think Tesla would install a HW3 retrofit in exchange for locking in the FSD subscription for a certain amount of time.

While I hope they would do something like this (I have HW2.5 myself), I imagine they may only allow FSD subscription for HW3, and tell everyone else to buy FSD if they want the chip.

 

[Knightshade]

I'm also curious how Tesla will handle vehicles with HW2.5. A lot of people seem to think Tesla would install a HW3 retrofit in exchange for locking in the FSD subscription for a certain amount of time.

While I hope they would do something like this (I have HW2.5 myself), I imagine they may only allow FSD subscription for HW3, and tell everyone else to buy FSD if they want the chip.

I could see them doing something like minimum 3 year FSD subscription at $100/mo and you get HW3.

That gets Tesla $3600... which is $600 more than they got from EAP owners originally to give them FSD and HW3.... (and $1600 more than they got from them briefly during the early 2019 sale)