no, the skeptics will say: "see, we knew Tesla couldn't produce a $35,000 mass produced EV. They are still too expensive for the every day man." That's what's going to happen. Promise something for too long and take it away, people remember stuff like that, especially those who don't want the company to succeed.
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no, the skeptics will say: "see, we knew Tesla couldn't produce a $35,000 mass produced EV. They are still too expensive for the every day man." That's what's going to happen. Promise something for too long and take it away, people remember stuff like that, especially those who don't want the company to succeed.
You are right too, one reason why I always thought Tesla's best message was the Model E would cost roughly half the cost of the Model S and leave it at that.
Nobody ever mentioned the $50k Model S with 40kWh battery since it was discontinued in Spring 2013. People have short memories. Most Model S sell with the 85kWh battery anyway, and I expect to see the 60kWh discontinued in the time to come, or not introduced at all when Model S enters new markets like in China.
Yes, I buy that argument. 60 is being kept alive just to show the capability of making a lower cost vehicle (as a path to E). Once model E shows up, they will have E60 and E85 ($50K onwards) and S85 and S??? ($80K onwards) and S60 will be dropped.
I am sure this must have been mentioned earlier (no patience to read through all those posts) but FWIW, since Tesla has already created a brand image that's comparable to Porsche BMW Merc etc, they will not ruin that by going to a cheap E. E will turn out to be a 5 series or E class equivalent car.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
Has he said they're going to target the whole range of 3-series offerings, or just the 3-series in some amorphous way?
Given how quickly they killed the 40kWh S, I'm thinking that at best they'll make a stripped down $35k E for a few months just so they can say they did, then ax it and sell Model E with a ~$50k floor.
Given how quickly they killed the 40kWh S, I'm thinking that at best they'll make a stripped down $35k E for a few months just so they can say they did, then ax it and sell Model E with a ~$50k floor.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Pretty sure it's "amorphous" at this point, but the $35K figure has been referenced repeatedly. Certainly it could be killed off due to lack of demand like the 40 S, and detractors will complain about bait and switch, etc., while investors should see that strong demand for the more expensive versions simply means better profit margins.
I'm hoping they don't axe the low end version. Better to come out with something compelling even if it is more than the $35k price point. Would rather see a well optioned car in the high 40s. While that is still expensive with gas savings the math can still work out.
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
The problem for Tesla is that they can have strong demand for an expensive E, and still miss out on a lot of market share if they kill the inexpensive version. While they're the only car-maker offering something like the S, and were able to ax the 40kWh version w/o people going to other manufacturers, I don't think they'll be able to do that in a few years.
I imagine there will be at least two ~150-200 mile EVs on the market by then, and they'll need to aggressively pursue that segment or end up pidgeonholed as a luxury EV maker.
PS I think it's fair to say that Tesla pulled a bait-and-switch with the 40kWh S without being a "detractor". It was only available in the US and IIRC the 40kWh had the same curb weight as the 60kWh from the beginning.
There's nothing wrong with that either. They would understandably rather sell vehicles with higher margins, like any other manufacturer, then provide a more affordable version, and they can with the S w/o losing any market share. I doubt they'll be able to do the same with the E without losing market share.
Wishful thinking. After hearing the same blah blah blah EV's from the current manufacturers are coming since 2010, I would be willing to put money on there being absolutely no chance that a 200 mile EPA range EV will surface before 2020 from anyone other than Tesla.
Well...the soon to be on sale Mercedes B Class has a claimed range of around 115 miles with a 28kW battery pack. It will be easy for Mercedes to bump that up to 200 miles if they get motivated. And if Tesla will sell them the battery ;-)
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
Absolutely no chance? Those are some strong words, and odds I imagine. How about my $50 against your $1000 (I'm assuming you think there's only a ~5% chance) that another manufacturer produces a 200 mile EPA combined cycle EV before 2020 (this would include 2020 MY vehicles as long as they're in showrooms before January 1st 2020). Both bets would be inflation adjusted for payout at 2020, or before that point if my guess is accurate.
I would take the opposite view that there is very little chance that at least one car maker won't come out with a 200 mile EPA range EV by 2020. Six years is a long time and much can happen. When the Model E fly's off the shelves there will be tremendous pressure to respond. For all we know it will be MB with a Tesla drive train and battery since by then Tesla will be well past 300 EPA range and will still be the EV leader.
Yeah ok, your proposal makes no sense. If I needed $50 bucks that bad, I wouldn't be driving a Tesla.
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Well, 6 years is only a couple more than the 2010-2014 time span that saw only the leaf, and compliance vehicles. It doesn't take me too many tries to learn a lesson. The current manufacturers will go BK before they manufacture a viable EV. One can take that to the bank. There is a reason that Elon and company laugh when reporters ask what they think of ____ EV, I'd do the same thing.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Nissan/Renault might do it. Their new NMC cell chemistry is supposed to have similar density as the NCA chemistry, and if they've made advances in durability and/or active temperature control, put it into an efficient vehicle shape, they could crack the 200 mile mark. They have made the largest commitment to EV's of any of the big OEM's.
I agree. If it's anybody, it will be Nissan. GM? Out, they are off in Neverland with their Hybrid Volts. Toyota? Out, again in Neverland with their fool cells. I really hope Nissan gets it right because I would love to see them advance since they have spent some much time, money, and energy going in the right direction.
I agree
Elon has said all they need to produce a lower cost car is have a a lower cost battery pack.
It wouldn't surprise me if the price of the model S is lowered once the giga factory(or whatever causes the battery prices to drop) happens.
And I personally can't wait for that to happen because then it's game over ice cars.
*note to self; sell my ice car before it becomes worthless*
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
The idea isn't for you to make money, but to see how serious you are about stating there's absolutely no chance another manufacturer will make a 200-mile EV before 2020. Not that it matters much, just a figure of speech, but you certainly aren't willing to put your money where your mouth is.
In terms of mass-market EVs, their BMS and other patents give Tesla a great head start, but I seriously doubt they'll be the only players in the mid-tier market, or that other manufacturers won't see similar reductions in battery costs. My guess is that either Nissan, GM, or Mitsubishi will have a serious non-compliance ~150-200 mile EV before Jan 1st 2020. It might something closer to a gen-I Honda Insight than a 3-series size car, but my guess is that at least one other manufacturer will try to undercut Tesla.
There is a difference between a 150 and a 200 mile EV. I'm sure GM or someone has the technical ability to produce a 200 mile EV. That's not the issue. It's wether they see a business case to do so. I'm doubtful they'll do it in the next 6 years. For it to hit the market in 2019, we should start seeing real prototypes at the auto shows in 2016 or so.
I did put my money where my mouth is, close to $100k of it when I bought a Model S. I would have never spent that kind of money on an ICE car. I did it because I knew that it would be a very long time before a comparable range EV was offered for cheaper. The value the Model S represents at this point in time is huge. I don't have unlimited time on this planet, and time is money.
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