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Gen III Range & Pricing Speculation

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So, taking this to its logical conclusion, here's an estimate of the tax credit status using estimated sales #s from the Morgan Stanley report (which uses N America vs US, so this is still not entirely accurate. I imagine Canada/Mexico sales are quite small vs. USA though, so it should be relatively close).

2012/2013: 22k
2014: 20k
2015: 38k
2016: 46k
2017: 85k
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211k, implying phase-out begins 3/31/18 @ 50%, 9/31/18 @ 25%.
Small nitpick. You forgot about 1500 Roadsters.
 
The key factor to me is price comparison to ICE vehicles. That means you have to take fuel and maintenance into account. If gas prices rise by 30% before the Model E comes out, $40k is plenty price competitive. $35k is a good goal, but there is some room for slippage in the price. What Tesla needs to do is bring the price of quality electric vehicles down, rather than getting the same value, just a lower price and less good vehicle.

Nothing more to say other than well put.

The only thing I would add would be price might be a issue, but software and technology can be a big impact as well. I feel as if younger generations will purchase this car more than any other generation.

Exactly what I stated before, Tesla is not appealing to wealthy business owners when the Model E comes.. They are dealing with regular people who only care about the final price. Many of the people that purchase the Model E most likely won't have the knowledge that we all have about electricity, voltage, planning routes, but they will learn (hopefully). I believe they need to take the complications out of everything and make it simple and easy for the average person. I do not know who the heck would do the math of watts to miles or miles to kilowatts to figure out what they have left and all of that. When they jump into their ICE cars they see X amount of miles left of gas and they are satisfied. This is more or less a software issue if anything. And obviously I was generalizing so do not take what I said as a definitive statement.
 
I think the fully loaded Sig Perf Model E (NOT the new roadster which may be on the same platform) will be 3x the entry price (just as it was with the Model S 50K>>>>>140K) but it should do 0-60 > 3.2 sec with 300mi range.
 
Elon has already said that he intends for Model E to beat the M3. And this is Elon we're talking about, so I'm inclined to take him at his word. And I hope he does, as I'm planning to get a Sig Perf Model E. :)

I'm glad to read that because I'm planning to get base (I expect "only" to be 3NNd performance) + heat pump + subzero and all of you high margin buyers will help lower the margin on the base model (when Tesla eventually gets round to selling base models).
 
You think there will be a $70+k Model E? That's entirely possible but starts to cross into Model S pricing. I guess a Performance Model E with all the options would reach that but the M3 starts at $72,000 or so without any options so crosses well over $80k with options.
Yep. I agree w/ Kevin. I do hope they build a 4WD performance Model E to rival the M3/M4. It's been Elon's stated goal to follow 3-series pricing and this would fit w/ that - $35k-$100k. I also agree w/ ckessel that 2018 is a more realistic time frame - which is the time I'll be looking to replace my Roadster. So fingers crossed!
 
Yep. I agree w/ Kevin. I do hope they build a 4WD performance Model E to rival the M3/M4. It's been Elon's stated goal to follow 3-series pricing and this would fit w/ that - $35k-$100k. I also agree w/ ckessel that 2018 is a more realistic time frame - which is the time I'll be looking to replace my Roadster. So fingers crossed!

Tesla could also differentiate a fully-loaded Model E and Model S with range. I believe the largest battery pack (i.e., Range) will be available in the S and X version and not in the Model E and Model Y (i.e., smaller Model X- Yes, Tesla will spell S-E-X-Y).

In theory, one way to differentiate Products would be (with batteries built today):

Model S / X: 60 kWh or 85 kWh

Model E / Y: 45 kWh or 60 kWh

or in the future:

Model S / X: 85 kWh or 110 kWh

Model E / Y: 45 kWh, 60 kWh, or 85 kWh
 
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That makes sense. By the time the Model E launches the Model S will move up in terms of range and maybe get the interior quality many feel it should have for the price although I think it is fine. I could see it going up to $80k maybe but depends on how aggressive they go after M3 market.
 
Just as a 3 series crosses over into a 5 Series.

Yep. I agree w/ Kevin. I do hope they build a 4WD performance Model E to rival the M3/M4. It's been Elon's stated goal to follow 3-series pricing and this would fit w/ that - $35k-$100k. I also agree w/ ckessel that 2018 is a more realistic time frame - which is the time I'll be looking to replace my Roadster. So fingers crossed!

Agree 100%
Many Tesla skeptics point to the low margins on the $35k model E as a reason to challenge Tesla's over-all growth potential. Their argument is the overall margins will limit Tesla's ability to grow as quickly as they are now. Less margin, less cash.
If $35k was the average selling price I would tend to agree but it is clear the average selling price will be much higher. $50k+ would not surprise me. Eventually the skeptics will catch on:smile: