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There's a lot of experts that have said that Tesla in NO way will be able to produce the 300 mile Model S, not at that pricetag.
We don't know when Tesla plan to start selling GenIII, but I'm sure Elon is waiting for the battery price to drop below $200 per kwh.
Battery cost dropping below $200 per kWh soon, says Teslas Elon Musk
Maybe 3 years from now is the not-too-distant future.
Say they will be able to get it for $175 per kwh, considering bulk discount. The GenIII will be smaller and weigh less than Model S, and might reach the magic 300 miles with a 75 kwh-pack. That's $13125 ...
I think Elon Musk is heading for a game changer, that seems to be his nature (he just commercialized space flight).
To me it's clear. If they want to sell 200k cars per year they have to have something much better than a improved Nissal Leaf.
I love your enthusiasm, Fredrik, but you're definitely pushing the envelope. I'd bet Tesla is close to $200 per kWh now. But there has to be a decent porofit made on each car sold. Probably 20% gross profit per car which gets them 10%-12% net on the Mas Market Car. You're comparing, at best, a $13K battery pack to a $3K gas engine. Granted, I'd love it to be true since I plan on buying one of these cars but I'm just trying to be realistic on what I'll get. I currently expect to pay around $50K, after rebate, for a loaded, max battery, BlueStar. I currently expect that car to be better in range than the 60 kWh Model S for $10K less. It won't be as big a car and it won't be quite as luxurious. If I get more then...wow. Tesla's car will be much better than the Leaf in both range and looks.
Well, if they pay $200 per kwh now, in three years with a price falling 10 % every year as Elon stated recently, a 75 kwh-package will cost 10 935. Considering that battery producers will start to dramatically ramp up production the following years (400%) IDC Energy Insights Forecasts Lithium-Ion Battery Production to Grow Nearly 400% Worldwide - prUS23276912
the price can go even lower.
Yes, an ICE-car has an engine that cost $3K, but an EV is cheaper to produce in every other sense, and with Model S, Tesla has paid for the cost of R&D. They can just implement it.
But sure, maybe $30K for a 300-mile car is a bit :smile: optimistic, but I think we will be surprised. Elon compared GenIII with BMW 3-series, that is what he's competing with, and they don't sell for $50K, but between $30K and $40K.
We have to remember, if you aim at selling 200K cars a year you have to have a car that people (not just enthusiasts) can afford and crave for. Few people crave for a Leaf (wich is proven by sales figures).
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It has been stated by Elon and others at Tesla that they are shooting for the base GenIII to cost in the $30k's. I expect the top of the line fully loaded GenIII to be above $60k. The BMW 3-Series tops out at over $60k. They will easily sell a Performance GenIII coupe for more than $60k. Look at all of the people going for the Performance Model S. The performance GenIII will most likely have slightly better performance for ~$20k less. If they decide to go with three battery options then there will probably be at least a $7,500 bump in price between each option. If they decide to only go with two options then I can see the delta being at least $10k. I don't see Tesla putting out a smaller car that gets less range than the 40kwh Model S. I expect the base GenIII to get a little less than 200 mile range in real world driving. More than doubling the range of a Leaf for slightly more is going to be a huge value proposition to potential customers. Even if Tesla can, there is no reason to quadruple the range of a Leaf for the base GenIII. It just doesn't make good business sense. Unfortunately we have some time to kill before we get any real details though.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'm going to be somewhat pessimistic and predict a stripped down base model with 150 miles EPA range at $37,499 before rebate, $29,999 after, then larger packs and options going up from there.
That's what makes the most sense to me. It's realistic and I can see Tesla making money with those numbers. I'd expect the base pack to be 35-36 kWh and stretching, it will be 40 kWh.
I just don't want to create unrealistic expectations... Sure I'd love a 300 mile pack for $30k, but then those spending $80K for a Model S will be a little upset that a $30K car gets just as much range as they do... 10 years from now maybe...but 2 or 3 years later? No way.
If there was a major breakthrough, then sure. But we've been told over and over again that battery improvements are around 8% to 10%. To expect a doubling of capacity in two years for half the price without some announced breakthrough is unrealistic. That is the point I'm making. Lets stick with what we've been told to expect and build our expectations on that. Maybe even be a little conservative because an 8 to 10% improvement doesn't mean there won't be an increase in cost.
Elon has hinted that costs will dip below $200 per kWh. I'd bet/guess that he will get around $175 per kWh for the Gen III packs which would be $14K for an 80 kWh pack (300 mile). That's half the price of the car in batteries alone. I don't see how you can pull that off. $6300 for a 36 kWh pack seems like a number you can work with to make a $37,400 car and still get a 20% profit margin.
WhiteKnight
_____ P85 #549 _____ Sig Red / Sig White
If Tesla can sell a car with 300 mile range for under $40K anytime before 12/31/2015 I'll eat my hat.
Would love to see it because stock would be $100 per share. Unfortunately 0.0% chance.
Would love to see it because stock would be $100 per share. Unfortunately 0.0% chance.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
However, your Model S can still take advantage of future battery improvements and at some point be better than when new. If the car is still in good shape and you still like it then it's worth getting a newer better pack when the old one no longer meets your needs. It could be lighter giving you better performance and still give you more range. Winning. :smile:
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I suppose the reduction gear box could eventually leak gear oil, but new axle seals and a gasket if needed would take care of that.
How much cheaper will Gen III be to produce?
* The technology will be improved, but most of the cost for research and development will already be paid for by the Model S
* Less bells and whistles, like no 17inch screen
How many kwh will the GenIII car need to drive 300 miles?
* A smaller car will not need 85 kwh to go 300 miles. A BMW 3 (GenIII) is about 35 % lighter than BMW5 (about the same size as Model S). According to figures I found, correct me if I'm wrong, Model S weights 1850 kg. Comparing the BMW-figures Gen III could weigh about 1200 kg. A Nissan Leaf that doesn't have aluminum chassis weighs 1521. If the weight is 35% less, it needs 35% less energy to drive it. Hence 85*0,65=55 kwh to reach 300 miles.
* They will improve range by fine tuning existing technology,
But let’s say GenIII needs 60 kwh for 300 miles of range.
The 60kwh Model S is priced $60K. A smaller car, less extras, production ramped up, will make it 45K. 8-10% in battery price reduction per year will scale of the last 5K.
Hence, the 300 mile EV at a price of $39 900 (after Federal Tax Credit). And WhiteKnight will have to eat his hat.
* The technology will be improved, but most of the cost for research and development will already be paid for by the Model S
* Less bells and whistles, like no 17inch screen
How many kwh will the GenIII car need to drive 300 miles?
* A smaller car will not need 85 kwh to go 300 miles. A BMW 3 (GenIII) is about 35 % lighter than BMW5 (about the same size as Model S). According to figures I found, correct me if I'm wrong, Model S weights 1850 kg. Comparing the BMW-figures Gen III could weigh about 1200 kg. A Nissan Leaf that doesn't have aluminum chassis weighs 1521. If the weight is 35% less, it needs 35% less energy to drive it. Hence 85*0,65=55 kwh to reach 300 miles.
* They will improve range by fine tuning existing technology,
But let’s say GenIII needs 60 kwh for 300 miles of range.
The 60kwh Model S is priced $60K. A smaller car, less extras, production ramped up, will make it 45K. 8-10% in battery price reduction per year will scale of the last 5K.
Hence, the 300 mile EV at a price of $39 900 (after Federal Tax Credit). And WhiteKnight will have to eat his hat.
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I suspect the same, but would imagine they might scale it down to maybe 14-15". Can't see them completely eliminating it -- especially since I doubt it's a very expensive component of the total package.
That $14k should be offset with $7.5k (USA) or some other amount to account for the fact that it's electric. So let's say that's $6.5k extra for the batteries. Now the drive train as a whole (engine, gearbox, etc, etc) is probably cheaper for an EV, not to mention the $1000's saved on not pumping gas! My conclusion: US$14k for an 80kWh pack equals guaranteed success.
This is actually completely wrong. The energy required to accelerate the car is primarily a function of mass. The energy required to keep the car moving is a function of friction.
The friction comes from the tires and the drivetrain and from air resistance. Air resistance is the largest component and is completely independant of mass.
Gen III will be smaller which will immediately give a lower CdA (and thus reduced drag). A lower Cd may be hard, but I'm not sure. Does anyone here know if a smaller (width and length) car would typically have a lower or higher Cd? I would think a smaller car being "boxier" would typically have a higher Cd, but not having a background in aerodynamics I could be 100% wrong.
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