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Assumptions
1. Current battery prices are $400 per kwh and will be $300 per kwh for Gen 3
2. Although not a cost factor for the car, I am assuming the tax credit will be repealed with the budget negations over the next several years.
3. Assuming 145 mile EPA range on the 40 kwh Model S (higher effeciency due to lighter pack(160 [tesla 55mph estimate] *0.92)
4. Assuming 15% increase in range
Speculation
1. Base price will be 37k and if tax credit still exists will bring that down to 30k.
2. Best case scenario will be the 40 KWH pack with EPA range of 165 miles.
3. Pack Cost: 12k, PEM, Inverter, Motor cost: 6k
So assuming 40 kwh pack and the cost of the other drive train components Tesla would need to make a BMW 3-series capable car for 19k. Seems like to tall an order without battery pack costs below $250 The more i look over the numbers i think its too optimistic for a 40 kwh pack for 37k. Thinking more like 30 kwh with 125 mile EPA range for 37k price.
1. Current battery prices are $400 per kwh and will be $300 per kwh for Gen 3
2. Although not a cost factor for the car, I am assuming the tax credit will be repealed with the budget negations over the next several years.
3. Assuming 145 mile EPA range on the 40 kwh Model S (higher effeciency due to lighter pack(160 [tesla 55mph estimate] *0.92)
4. Assuming 15% increase in range
Speculation
1. Base price will be 37k and if tax credit still exists will bring that down to 30k.
2. Best case scenario will be the 40 KWH pack with EPA range of 165 miles.
3. Pack Cost: 12k, PEM, Inverter, Motor cost: 6k
So assuming 40 kwh pack and the cost of the other drive train components Tesla would need to make a BMW 3-series capable car for 19k. Seems like to tall an order without battery pack costs below $250 The more i look over the numbers i think its too optimistic for a 40 kwh pack for 37k. Thinking more like 30 kwh with 125 mile EPA range for 37k price.
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The leaf's battery pack without any thermal management i believe is $375 per kwh and cell prices for cheap Chinese 18650 batteries are getting close to $250 which is several years ahead of many predictions Saying that ballpark estimates of Telsa is selling their battery's at $500 per KWH (difference between 40 and 60) and if you assume they are making a profit off that then cost would be closer to $400 per KWH. Best case we are looking at 10% improvement in lithium batteries per year with only 3 years until the Gen 3 goes into production. This means that the battery pack design has to be locked down in 2/2.5 years.
2 years before pack design lock down means that none of these "breakthrough" lab experiments will be ready in time. If you have any researched articles that can show where my assumptions are off please let me know.
Thanks
2 years before pack design lock down means that none of these "breakthrough" lab experiments will be ready in time. If you have any researched articles that can show where my assumptions are off please let me know.
Thanks
Kevin Harney is correct. Elon would be very clued in to what Panasonic is doing and where they are going with their batteries. I'm sure he based that prediction on what they have told him. I'm sure that's also why he has quoted a tentative price for the Gen III. My guess would be that Tesla is going to be paying less than $200 per kWh for their Gen III batteries. That is for just the batteries. There are other costs. There will be a price to ship those batteries to the US.
The article is stilll specifically talking about cell cost and not pack cost at or below $200. But given those numbers assuming pack cost of 250 instead of 300 then Tesla would need to make a BMW 3 series for 21k.
Around here cheap BMW 3 series go for 36k base price. So the base Telsa is going to be roughly the exact same price as a base BMW using a more expensive drive train more expensive materials for the shell of the car (aluminium) and without the economy of scale of BMW?
I would love to see Telsa pull it off (well technically i would love to see an electric pickup truck) but that is just an extremely tall order with a 40 kwh pack.
Around here cheap BMW 3 series go for 36k base price. So the base Telsa is going to be roughly the exact same price as a base BMW using a more expensive drive train more expensive materials for the shell of the car (aluminium) and without the economy of scale of BMW?
I would love to see Telsa pull it off (well technically i would love to see an electric pickup truck) but that is just an extremely tall order with a 40 kwh pack.
Norbert
TSLA will win
The target seems to be $30k after tax credit, but if at the time of introduction they achieve $35k, that's still OK. Assuming that the Model S achieves sufficient margins at $50k, that's a price reduction of $15k.
Assuming the battery price goes from about $400/kWh at Model S volumes, to about $250/kWh at Gen III volumes, for the 40 kWh pack, that's $6k less in cost, leaving $9k difference.
For a car that is a good bit smaller, can use less expensive materials for the interior, can be a bit simpler in many ways, a $9k cost reduction doesn't sound impossible with a 5x or 10x higher volume in mass-production and better supplier prices at those volumes.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I agree with JRP3. The $30K Gen III will be a very stripped down version just to hit the promised price. I expect them to follow the Model S sales pattern and keep the $30K price for six months to a year. There will be a lot more add-ons than there is with the Model S. I truly expect to pay $50K to $60K for a nicely equipped and max pack car. The average price for the Model S seems to be $65K to $75K for the 16K reservations. I'd guess the average price for the Gen III will be $45K to $55K.
Agree, the 2013 BMW 3 Series has a price range from $36,500 to $60,800. As long as the GenIII is competitively priced Tesla will be ok. However, with the price of cars going up each year, by the time the GenIII is available I wouldn't be surprised if keeping the base model cost below $40k will be a major challenge. Lets hope the tax credit is still available. From Autoblog: "According to TrueCar.com's data, the average selling price of a new car sold here in the U.S. last month (April 2012) was $30,748, marking an all-time record (last year's figure was just $28,771)"
I think people are being wildly optimistic in some areas and aren't taking the big picture into account (namely that Tesla's entire product portfolio will also have to evolve). Add to that the evolution of competitor's products.
For this reason, I think the Gen III will have to offer 200 miles EPA range as a minimum. That would mean a 50 kWh battery (IMHO) as the base offering. An easy offering when this pack will cost the same in 2016 (when I think the car will be delivered to customers) as today's 40 kWh pack.
I also think this means you'll see other offerings change. No more S40. The base Model S will be a $65k 75 kWh true premium full-size sedan with 250 miles EPA range. The top-end Model S will be come with a 100 kWh battery delivering a proper 300 miles EPA range.
The Gen III will be a $40k offering with a 50 kWh batt as the base model, delivering 200 miles range and a 75 kWh battery as the alternative offering 300 miles range. A $40k sedan should have a maximum cost of $30-$32k if we assume a gross profit margin of 20-25%. If the battery pack still costs $16k, that leaves $14k to put together the car. Given what Tesla has learned from the Model S, I don't think it's a stretch.
Lastly, there's a learning curve here and constant cost reduction (especially on batteries). So it's quite possible, that Tesla may be willing to accept lower margins at launch and a steady growth in margins as the Gen III sales progress.
For this reason, I think the Gen III will have to offer 200 miles EPA range as a minimum. That would mean a 50 kWh battery (IMHO) as the base offering. An easy offering when this pack will cost the same in 2016 (when I think the car will be delivered to customers) as today's 40 kWh pack.
I also think this means you'll see other offerings change. No more S40. The base Model S will be a $65k 75 kWh true premium full-size sedan with 250 miles EPA range. The top-end Model S will be come with a 100 kWh battery delivering a proper 300 miles EPA range.
The Gen III will be a $40k offering with a 50 kWh batt as the base model, delivering 200 miles range and a 75 kWh battery as the alternative offering 300 miles range. A $40k sedan should have a maximum cost of $30-$32k if we assume a gross profit margin of 20-25%. If the battery pack still costs $16k, that leaves $14k to put together the car. Given what Tesla has learned from the Model S, I don't think it's a stretch.
Lastly, there's a learning curve here and constant cost reduction (especially on batteries). So it's quite possible, that Tesla may be willing to accept lower margins at launch and a steady growth in margins as the Gen III sales progress.
Since you're talking about the future then anything can happen. I can see that, in the future, the Model S40 might go away. Tesla dropped it for Europe and they seem to be getting plenty of orders for their larger pack Model S's that they might be able to afford losing the low end.
I think you're dead wrong about the Gen III. Elon seems to have gone out of his way to follow through on certain promises and keeping the Gen III in the $30K range seems like one of those "hard" promises. I'm confident the car will be $30K in the way the S40 is $50K with the tax break. I also think the smallest pack Gen III will be a bare bones car and there will be a lot more add-ons. I do think you will get 200 miles for $40K but that will be an upgraded pack. We shall see.
Thanks! To be fair, I am a long time lurker.
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Never said the Bluestar would not be $30k. But I do believe that Elon is banking on the tax credit to carry him over the finish line.
And I don't think he'll sell a very basic vehicle just to get to that price point. Why? Because such a compromise would be very damaging to Tesla's brand as the no-compromise car brand. It'd be like Apple selling a compromised laptop to get to a cheaper price point. I hope Elon is more principled than that.
As for the S40. It's toast. Look at Tesla's lineup with the Model X. The S40 is clearly a compromise, to allow Tesla to offer an entry point under $50K. With the Gen III, there's no need for this charade.
Actually, according to my calculations (and with signatures left out of the picture) the Model S average price is about 80-85,000USD taxes and ev incetives excluded.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Looks like Gen3 will be delayed :crying:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/14/autoshow-tesla-profit-idUSL2N0AJ0GX20130114
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