The VINs are the upper boundary level; if that doesn't move than it's bad.
Q4 2017 they also had 8.362 VIN's registered and only produced 2.686
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The VINs are the upper boundary level; if that doesn't move than it's bad.
Q4 2017 they also had 8.362 VIN's registered and only produced 2.686
dhrivnak
Active Member
Linear??? According to InsideEVs production appears to be doubling each month. That is geometric, and far from linear. Based on that they should sell over 5,000 in March and I am betting they will. While that is a far cry from 2,500/week it would still show solid progress and in effect would delay the 2,500/week about a month. Disappointing but far from the end of the world.
Both, of course. The email referred to getting to (and through) 300/day exiting this week. The VINs registered overnight here would not be relevant to this week.
This batch of VINs would be for next week's production or (more likely, IMO) beyond.
In any event, it's nice to see larger batches of VIN registrations coming more regularly. If we get another 2k next week, then we'll know with some degree of confidence that 300+ per day is probably happening outside of this week's quarter-end push. If we go next week without another big registration batch, then that would suggest to me that we may be seeing a drop back to start Q2 similar to what we saw entering Q1.
That's my semi-educated guess, at least!
Reciprocity
Active Member
That is why I discounted the most recent registration and only used the date as a cutoff for needing more VINs. They don't just register new vins on a whim, there must be a need. What you don't out is valid in that wtf do they need so many VINs for. They registered 20,500 to date and at most have delivered 12,000 cars to date including this quarter end push. They are registering 2,000 ever few days at this point so they feel like they need more. This completely contradicts the Field email. Are there really 6500 model 3s (8500 - 2000 new VINs) , above and beyond those already scheduled for delivery, on the production lines and on trucks and in parking lots? I guess it's possible.
Again, 3 registrations of VINs in 10 days. The first 2 leading up to the 10th day equal 4700 or 470/day. This assumes they aren't year registering VINS for fun and they actually need them. This contradicts the 2 week old leaked email that had them at over 200/day and pushing for 300+. 470 would be more then doubling production I'm 14 days from the 200+. Something stinks. What's the source for the email? A release or a leak or flat out faked? There is no reason for Tesla to fluff the VINs at this point, we will know in just a few days.
Anything North of 400/day would be incredible and would mean that the shut down was to make this possible in conjunction with the fully operational semi auto automatic lines. Over 400/day would actually require the new German line.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I discounted this most recent registration. Total is 6700+ in 10 days so I used only the last two but kept the 10 days. Let's just put that into context shall we. Many are estimation that Tesla is only going to deliver 8000 model 3s this whole quarter. A quarter is 90+ days. 18500 VINS registered before last night. 1700 delivered last quarter. Where the funk are the other 7800 model 3s?
Reciprocity
Active Member
The highest VIN assigned is under 13700. So 18500 - 13700 would net 4800 in production, assuming that last nights VINs where needed for future production. The cars are built in batches so the Vins should be assigned to the vehicles as soon as those plats are attached to the body? The vins are located in other places as well right? Deeper inside vehicle and thus assigned fairly early in the production process.
DurandalAI
Member
While sustained production at the end of March is likely around 2,000/week I suspect the end of the month push will be to show 2,500/week burst rate. Tesla will trumpet that as well, with them saying they expect to stay on track for 5,000/week by the end of Q2. That’s just my gut talking.
Seriously? There is an email out there from the VP of engineering. That email says 200 now, 300 aspirational. Yet let's speculate about how they are at 400 and how incredible that is and its because the new Grohmann line is in. Go ahead without me here.
Tesla is recalling 123,000 Model S vehicles
In other words, they are recalling every Model S they ever built. What a bumper
I believed one of Tesla's downfall is that they come in thinking everyone is dumb and that they can churn out EV cars as if they are iphones. Now, they learned that car industry has a huge amount of regulations and making cars are a very complicated process.
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In other words, they are recalling every Model S they ever built. What a bumper
I believed one of Tesla's downfall is that they come in thinking everyone is dumb and that they can churn out EV cars as if they are iphones. Now, they learned that car industry has a huge amount of regulations and making cars are a very complicated process.
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Tesla is recalling 123,000 Model S vehicles
In other words, they are recalling every Model S they ever built. What a bumper
I believed one of Tesla's downfall is that they come in thinking everyone is dumb and that they can churn out EV cars as if they are iphones. Now, they learned that car industry has a huge amount of regulations and making cars are a very complicated process.
Yes, Stupid Tesla for using Bosch as a supplier. Now Tesla has to pay the cost for this huge recall themselves. No other automaker is that stupid.
Right?
Reciprocity
Active Member
Ok.. More conflicting information. Bare with me here because I know some of this might be a stretch and highly speculative but data points and information are starting to come together:
The first hint of a real ramp actually came Sunday/Monday from Trip Chowdhry:
https://www.streetinsider.com/Analy...eeks+-+Global+Equities+Chowdhry/13982168.html
Now I know that Trip is always tripping, but what he says here is interesting:
The leaked memo was supposedly from March 23rd:
Tesla Asks for Model 3 Factory Volunteers to Prove ‘Haters’ Wrong
Assuming Trip is exaggerating, and they where at 700/w and went 3x by march 25th as compared to march 11th, that could be inline with Fields rallying the troops a couple of days before to help lift the current production at that moment from over 200/day or 1500/w on March 23rd to 2100+/w identified by Trip just a couple of days later. What Trip could be reporting is the actual success of the call to arms. Its not like they needed to ramp, they could have just cranked up the machines and any extra bodies are just there to keep the whole thing moving smoothly. A few extra bodies to help with any issues that arise that are caused by the increase in speed. My point is that all the efforts to clear bottlenecks could have come to a head before the 23rd and they could have cranked the machine that builds the machines up almost instantly. Its like a virtual dial that goes from 1 to 11 and they turned the machine from 2 to 3. Who knows, maybe things went so well, they where able to crank it from 2 to 4 by this week and we are sitting at 400+/day. That would be a huge upside shock next week. I just cannot find any other reason to Register 4700 Vins in such a short time. If they can announce that the cleared a few bottlenecks and cranked the machine to exit the quarter at 2800/w while actually building 2500 in the 7 days leading up the 31st, I think that would be an upside surprise and would bode well for 5k/w, which would require the Grohmann system ramping throughout the 2nd quarter, which seems very realistic. This would also jive with what Elon talked about as it relates to improvements adding to production speed in very short time frames. More of a step curve the S-Curve when you zoom in. In this case, they could have taken 2 big steps up over 2 weeks and now require the Grohmann machines for any additional steps.
The information doesn't have to conflict if and only if the VINs are legitimately needed and the machine could be turned up fairly quickly after clearing major bottlenecks. This makes some sense because the time required to resolve the pack bottlenecks would have allowed time to burst different parts of the car line to shake out any issues in prep for the Feb shut down to make sure the conveyance system could efficiently and quickly deliver parts to the robots. If you recall, the only two bottlenecks talked about on the CC where pack assembly (solved by Grohmann) and the conveyance system. It makes some sense that you would need to shut down the model 3 lines to properly fix the bottlenecks in the conveyance system. This assumes the system works in the tower, because its basically an off the shelf solution, but needed to be properly integrated into the model 3 production lines and removing the bottlenecks and this effort required them to shut down the model 3 lines for 3-4 days in Feb.
I hope this post was not to rambling but I had to figure out why certain things where grinding on my psyche and putting this into a chronological order helped me make some assumptions. Lets hope this is accurate. I would still like to see more Vins assigned, but at this point, we will know soon enough.
The first hint of a real ramp actually came Sunday/Monday from Trip Chowdhry:
https://www.streetinsider.com/Analy...eeks+-+Global+Equities+Chowdhry/13982168.html
Now I know that Trip is always tripping, but what he says here is interesting:
Trip be Trippin said:
The leaked memo was supposedly from March 23rd:
Tesla Asks for Model 3 Factory Volunteers to Prove ‘Haters’ Wrong
Original Bloomberg Article said:
Assuming Trip is exaggerating, and they where at 700/w and went 3x by march 25th as compared to march 11th, that could be inline with Fields rallying the troops a couple of days before to help lift the current production at that moment from over 200/day or 1500/w on March 23rd to 2100+/w identified by Trip just a couple of days later. What Trip could be reporting is the actual success of the call to arms. Its not like they needed to ramp, they could have just cranked up the machines and any extra bodies are just there to keep the whole thing moving smoothly. A few extra bodies to help with any issues that arise that are caused by the increase in speed. My point is that all the efforts to clear bottlenecks could have come to a head before the 23rd and they could have cranked the machine that builds the machines up almost instantly. Its like a virtual dial that goes from 1 to 11 and they turned the machine from 2 to 3. Who knows, maybe things went so well, they where able to crank it from 2 to 4 by this week and we are sitting at 400+/day. That would be a huge upside shock next week. I just cannot find any other reason to Register 4700 Vins in such a short time. If they can announce that the cleared a few bottlenecks and cranked the machine to exit the quarter at 2800/w while actually building 2500 in the 7 days leading up the 31st, I think that would be an upside surprise and would bode well for 5k/w, which would require the Grohmann system ramping throughout the 2nd quarter, which seems very realistic. This would also jive with what Elon talked about as it relates to improvements adding to production speed in very short time frames. More of a step curve the S-Curve when you zoom in. In this case, they could have taken 2 big steps up over 2 weeks and now require the Grohmann machines for any additional steps.
The information doesn't have to conflict if and only if the VINs are legitimately needed and the machine could be turned up fairly quickly after clearing major bottlenecks. This makes some sense because the time required to resolve the pack bottlenecks would have allowed time to burst different parts of the car line to shake out any issues in prep for the Feb shut down to make sure the conveyance system could efficiently and quickly deliver parts to the robots. If you recall, the only two bottlenecks talked about on the CC where pack assembly (solved by Grohmann) and the conveyance system. It makes some sense that you would need to shut down the model 3 lines to properly fix the bottlenecks in the conveyance system. This assumes the system works in the tower, because its basically an off the shelf solution, but needed to be properly integrated into the model 3 production lines and removing the bottlenecks and this effort required them to shut down the model 3 lines for 3-4 days in Feb.
I hope this post was not to rambling but I had to figure out why certain things where grinding on my psyche and putting this into a chronological order helped me make some assumptions. Lets hope this is accurate. I would still like to see more Vins assigned, but at this point, we will know soon enough.
Note to self: Never spare the sarcasm symbol
In all honesty, most parts (including major components like the self driving computer chip) that Tesla uses to assemble their cars are OEMs. Any companies can buy OEMs parts and build a "Tesla" car out of it.
Certainly not Ford. They would never have a massive recall like Tesla.
Ford recalls 1.3M cars; steering wheel can come loose
(Two weeks ago)
Or Mercedes
Mercedes Recalls 122,000 Vehicles With Seat Belt Problems
(Yesterday)
Or Jaguar
2018 Land Rover, Range Rover line-up recalled for fire risk | CarAdvice
(Last week)
Ford recalls 1.3M cars; steering wheel can come loose
(Two weeks ago)
Or Mercedes
Mercedes Recalls 122,000 Vehicles With Seat Belt Problems
(Yesterday)
Or Jaguar
2018 Land Rover, Range Rover line-up recalled for fire risk | CarAdvice
(Last week)
Since the market is closed, and the VIN registration has caught up to my earlier faux pax, I'm going to go out on a limb and reveal my current over-optimistic theory.
The leaked letter was a trap, they were already over 300/day and due to the 3 day weekend the 'haters' are going to be in for a nasty shock next week. The timing of the steering recall was aligned to pull more into the abyss that is the current dip, as was the shift in assigned VINs.
Part of my reason for thinking this is that I don't see how people working faster/harder can be that impactful on line speed. The stations are not set up for multiple people, so unless the bottleneck is pure part movement to the line, where does the harder/ faster/ more people fit in to speed? I'm thinking (again, the sky is a strange color on my world) the invite to S/X workers is akin to putting the bench in during a blowout championship win.
Makes a great movie scene if nothing else (also rewatched FH launch this morning, so I'm feeling good)
If you think I am wrong, then please correct me where each parts come from or how Tesla obtains it. How about start with the computer chip?
Tesla has outsourced so many parts from Taiwan alone.
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