We have two lemons in this house, both are great. I also know 9 people in my town that have lemons, best lemons they ever owned!
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So all of a sudden it has nothing to do with fallen mirrors anymore?! How interesting! You are moving goal post at the speed of light!
Those two points seem reasonable from a typical bear. But I have different criteria
Tesla won't be able to make stable positive margin on Model 3 by the end of the year., They may still lose money due to new factory, new product and other infrastructure investment.
They slow down their products improvement cadence to that of a traditional car maker. Just in recent months they improved the suspension, the body panels alignment, the seats, reduced rattling, fixed touch screen issues and lots of UI changes. That is the true speed of a tech company. If they loose that I am out.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Right, because people never complain about a car if it doesn't live up to expectations...
It is admirable and smart that you read this forum and that you have an exit strategy.
Aren’t you worried that by the time those are confirmed, smart institutions will have already deduced the same and it will be too late?
fair point
if my modelings starts pointing that we are headed in that direction, especially for #1, then i will begin trimming my position
but you are right, i wouldnt totally wait until that moment in time, but i also wont trim for one financially engineered FCF+ quarter.
I enjoy productive conversations like this
Me too.
Given Elon’s history, wouldn’t you also worry about surprise announcements that could cause a sudden rise?
Maybe a full self driving demo followed by FSD release, major GF partnership, huge Powerpack deployment announcement, unanticipated new product,,,
StapleGun
Member
People who own the car are not qualified to give a review of the car? Who exactly would know more about the pros and cons than owners?
After two months with my lemon I have had two issues. Issue #1: The phone key is unreliable. Issue #2 Sometimes my wife takes the car and driving my old car is torture.
My SR delivery estimate for my 2nd Model 3 July 2017 reservation still shows early 2019. This does not square with Electrek’s article that brand new SR reservations may get their cars as soon as 6 months.
Does anyone have any ideas on the validity of the Electrek article: “Tesla cuts Model 3 delivery delays for new orders.”?
Does anyone have any ideas on the validity of the Electrek article: “Tesla cuts Model 3 delivery delays for new orders.”?
Tesla is likely being conservative in terms of pulling anyone's dates forward until the line is proved to support it (along with getting confirmed order mix data).
I am a die hard tesla cult member but I don't think there will be break through in autopilot anytime soon.
The article is not made up, and is as valid as the source.
"As for the least expensive version of the Model 3 with the Standard battery pack starting at $35,000 in the US, the timeline for new reservations is going from 12 to 18 months to just 6 to 12 months."
Elon wants to get every line waiter at every price point the $7,500 credit. The momentum adders like you and me may not get the full tax credit. It depends on how much Elon values momentum.
Consumer Reports has a weekly show they upload to YouTube called Talking Cars. It's almost a certainty the Model 3 will be a topic in this week's show. Will be interesting to see what if any response they have to Elon's tweets last night.
There's a possibility they will ask their viewers for feedback on whether they think they should allow a redo of their test per Elon's twitter request (retest car generally with a current production vehicle. I'd imagine, they almost certainly will do a retest of the emergency braking of the car they already have after it gets Tesla's fix.)... they've asked viewers stuff like this before. New episode likely to be out any time in the next 3 days.
consumer reports talking cars - YouTube
There's a possibility they will ask their viewers for feedback on whether they think they should allow a redo of their test per Elon's twitter request (retest car generally with a current production vehicle. I'd imagine, they almost certainly will do a retest of the emergency braking of the car they already have after it gets Tesla's fix.)... they've asked viewers stuff like this before. New episode likely to be out any time in the next 3 days.
consumer reports talking cars - YouTube
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colettimj
Member
As a non AI software engineer my gut tells me this problem is so incredibly difficult. Imagine you put your kid in a self driving car and then there is a wildfire, or gun battle ahead, or lava in the road. The PR of an autonomous vehicle killing the child because “lava detection “ was not built in would be a nightmare.
It just seems like AI needs near human level general intelligence to handle the thousands(millions?) of edge cases.
BUT, I hesitate to bet against Elon.
Are you saying if someone puts in a reservation today their delivery estimate will be 6-12 months?
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
And here I was thinking I was adventurous for taking the scenic route.
dc_h
Active Member
Self driving or driving, I discourage my 27 year old from driving through gun battles, wildfires and lava flows. It’s actually an unspoken rule, since wtf, who goes driving into gun battles wildfires or lava flows?
Kbm3,
The Electrek source is saying they would expect to fill that order somewhere in that time range. What they would communicate to the buyer might be the conservative 12 months. Maybe something like "first half of 2019."
I think they are legitimately trying to get at least some of the credit to people who need it to purchase the car at all.
The Electrek source is saying they would expect to fill that order somewhere in that time range. What they would communicate to the buyer might be the conservative 12 months. Maybe something like "first half of 2019."
I think they are legitimately trying to get at least some of the credit to people who need it to purchase the car at all.
Menifeer
Member
You clearly don't have any teenage sons...
Anyone care to speculate on production rate of the Model 3 Performance version after ramp up?
In his recent Tweetstorm, when asked when the white interior would be available for non-P Model, Elon said "Three or four months, depending on demand level. We have enough for about 1000/week right now."
The tweet was a bit cryptic, but if they ramp up to build ~1,000 Model 3 Performance per week that would be close to the equivalent of another full Model S program (on top of 5K+ Model 3 LR/AWD). ASP should be about $82K -- $78K base plus $5K EAP x ~80% take rate (plus a bit for FSD). No leasing for now. Margins should be high. May not be able to sustain demand at that level forever but there should be a significant backlog of P customers.
In his recent Tweetstorm, when asked when the white interior would be available for non-P Model, Elon said "Three or four months, depending on demand level. We have enough for about 1000/week right now."
The tweet was a bit cryptic, but if they ramp up to build ~1,000 Model 3 Performance per week that would be close to the equivalent of another full Model S program (on top of 5K+ Model 3 LR/AWD). ASP should be about $82K -- $78K base plus $5K EAP x ~80% take rate (plus a bit for FSD). No leasing for now. Margins should be high. May not be able to sustain demand at that level forever but there should be a significant backlog of P customers.
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