Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Well, he works at Tesla. This must have been pre-approved leak to defend SP for tomorrow. I can't imagine him risking his job otherwise...
John Totah
3rd degree connection
Lead Material Flow Model 3 at Tesla
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John Totah
3rd degree connection
Lead Material Flow Model 3 at Tesla
sundaymorning
Active Member
He works are the GF, Elon was there yesterday. 1 bottleneck down, 3 more to go (the next 3 bottlenecks are at Fremont).
1 bottleneck down.
Status of other 3 unsure. Maybe 3 still to go. Maybe already fixed
Status of other 3 unsure. Maybe 3 still to go. Maybe already fixed
sundaymorning
Active Member
Elon is returning to Fremont tonight to work on the final 3 bottlenecks. My assumption is that it’s ongoing until we see 3-5k finished Model 3 on the lot at Fremont. Without pictures, it didn’t happen...
I don’t want to see 5k pictures of Performance seats neither. I need to see the finish product, even at 4k...
Well he did post a pic of the paint shop in action Saturday. One of the other known bottlenecks. Elon drops hints occasionally. Lets see
sundaymorning
Active Member
Glad to hear it, do you have a link to the pant shop? Hints here and there are wonderful, and just what we need along the way. If this was midway through Q2, having hints would give us a nice bump, but with 7 days to go in the quarter the market will need a lot more than hints, theyll need proof in seeing the final product finished, parked and filled on all Fremont lots. We need to see that ASAP, even midnight June 30th is fine by me.
He also hinted that GA3 was rocking: Elon Musk on Twitter
And here is his paint shop tweet: Elon Musk on Twitter
And here is his paint shop tweet: Elon Musk on Twitter
sundaymorning
Active Member
Thanks. From what I can remember Model S body in red took awhile to set up. Do you think this was the bottleneck at the GF?
Here is Elon’s email on June 15th:
radical improvements are still needed in paint shop output, GA3, bringing up the new GA4, End of Line and Module Zone 4 at Giga. We also need to achieve sustained, 700+ per week on the body line.
This is tremendously good news if true. Its another positive datapoint and makes me feel more confident for sure.
About your questions:
Throughput is not a computer terminology but a production and supply chain management one.
It describes the amount of a certain unit that passed successfully through a defined part of the production structure in a given timeframe.
5K/w in June would therefore translate in a production of about 17.5k for June as of today. As they have been ramping and have been at 3.5k/w before and as we had a production stop as well they should be way higher than 5K/w now.
Beeing conservative and assuming 6k/w as of now for the last week with another 6 days to go for the months we can add another 4.5 k which brings me to a production volume for June alone of 22.000 units.
If that assumptions are correct than Tesla may exceed the production in Q2 with a big margin.
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sundaymorning
Active Member
Here’s the thing, during the Q1 earnings letter Elon has stated the GF was no longer a hurdle to get us to 5k, only to resolve that bottleneck now?
The ones he mentioned that were more of a threat was at Fremont, in GA, body paint, etc. that is where the target is and where we will likely need to address.
Thanks for your definition of “throughput.” It gives me some hope, but I am not yet convinced that 5k finished Model 3 is in the bag. For now it’s going to be a waiting game.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Whoa I wouldn’t jump to being above 5k finished product as of yet. The guy works at the GF, not Fremont. He is referring to 5k packs most likely and not 5k Model 3s.
Thats fair.
About the credibility of that John Totah. I assume this is an intended leak. Otherwise he just would have just lost his job regardless if the numbers are right or not.
Obviously as we learned through Tripp there are not only bright characters worrking for Tesla but for now I assume he is not one of the bad apples.
Its a confirmation for the GF, thats true. However I am still positive that this translates to a strong increase of 3 throughput collecting all the data points together.
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sundaymorning
Active Member
Here’s a counter point to consider. Elon never stated they were producing 3,500 a week, he only simply stated that Tesla has demonstrated “500 on all systems”...
Those were his exact words. If you can find him saying we have produced “3,500 cars total per week” then please put it here bc I haven’t been able to find it.
True but to be fair I did not say what you claim I did.
With 500 on all systems at that point in time we all can safely assume that getting them to work together on that rate versus the parts of the production was not far away and should have been achieved shortly after. This is at least my modest experience from production.
Also my prediction calculation is based on the twitter message and not on the 500 per day message.
Are these assumption? Of course they are ..... we all are trying to come to some educated predictions.
sundaymorning
Active Member
btw I am not calling you out in anyway. My question about the 3,500 number is a sincere one. I have tried my best to really find any indication that we were able to assemble 3,500 finished product but could not find it anywhere on TMC. Hence, I am asking for further crowd sourcing from you or others to see if I had accidentally missed something, that is all. The 5k mention from the GF worker likely indicates that maybe, just maybe Grohmann is online? Or perhaps new semi automatic lines have been added. I know that they have been adding new additions to the semi automatic lines but really I don’t have any info on Grohmann to even make an educated guess.
Elon has tweeted “good news coming soon”, I would imagine more colorful language, but this time I will need to see actually production of finished Model 3s in order to believe him. Been burnt too many times by assumptions, predictions, guesses, estimates... I’ve learned my lessons since Model S days.
You may have missed this internal email leaked by Electrek.
“It’s getting very exciting! All parts of the Model 3 production system are now above 500 and some are almost at 700 cars already. Congratulations to all on making so much progress!”
sundaymorning
Active Member
Thanks for chiming in, I’ve literally read that email 10x, and still he’s only mentioned that all parts of Model 3 systems are producing above 500, but has not mentioned that 3,500 cars were produced in any given week as of yet. This again to me is colorful language, some speculate they haven’t put together 3,500 cars was due to the 200,000 tax credit number. With 7 more days to go, he better hurry.
Thats fine and I did not take it negative just wanted to get my message right.
Interestingly the Tweet from John has been deleted minute ago. So, thats an indication this has not been an intended leak.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I thought I heard him say at the annual meeting that they had indeed reached 3,500 a week. I wonder if anyone has a transcript of that handy.
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